News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

A day of worry is more exhausting than a week of work.

–          John Lubbock

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US crop production estimate updates. Previous estimates were

  • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.281 BB
  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 170.3 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 3.876 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 46.1 BPA

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 1 ¾ at 922 ¾
  • CZ down 1 at 321 ¾
  • WZ down 2 at 480 ¾
  • KC WZ up a ¼ at 561 ¾
  • MWZ up a ¼ at 535 ¾
  • SMZ up .20 at 301.50
  • BOZ down 5 at 3274
  • RRX down 1.50 at 1254

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,472
  • CZ 6,404
  • WZ 3,584
  • KC WZ 619
  • MWZ 148
  • SMZ 4,503
  • BOZ 7,011
  • RRX 30

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal steady mixed
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Gold, silver, and crude lower

 

China markets still closed for holiday.

 

US September unemployment report came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • September nonfarm payrolls at +248K expecting +215K
  • September unemployment rate at 5.9% expecting 6.1%
  • Aug nonfarm payrolls revised to +180K from +142K

 

Safras e Mercado said as of 10/01/14 Brazil has sold 12% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 32% a year ago and vs. 31% average

 

Safras e Mercado said as of 10/01/14 Brazil has sold 91% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 89% a year ago and vs. 90% average

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 95.9 MMT

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated 2014 grain crop at 104 MMT vs. previous estimate of 100 MMT

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia has harvested 99.0 MMT of grain so far and that Russia still has 6.0 MH of grain to harvest

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 30.0 MMT vs. 25.3 MMT a year ago

 

Stats Canada came out this morning at 730 am CST with their 2014 Canadian crop estimates.

  • 2014 total wheat crop estimated at 27.48 MMT vs. average estimate of 28.0 MMT and vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 27.705 MMT
  • 2014 spring wheat crop at 19.94 MMT vs. average estimate of 19.659 MMT and vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 19.972 MMT
  • 2014 durum wheat crop of 4.756 MMT vs. average estimate of 5.1 MMT and vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 4.9532 MMT
  • 2014 canola crop estimated at 14.08 MMT vs. average estimate of 14.6 MMT and vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 13.908
  • 2014 barley crop at 7.12 MMT vs. average estimate of 7.3 MMT and vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 7.164 MMT
  • 2014 oat crop at 2.69 MMT vs. average estimate of 2.7 MMT and vs. Stats Canada August estimate of 2.639 MMT
  • 2014 corn crop at 11.397 MMT vs. average estimate of 11.8 MMT and vs. Stats Canada August estimate of 11.4305 MMT
  • 2014 bean crop at 5.96 MMT vs. average estimate of 5.9 MMT and vs. Stats Canada August estimate of 5.9007 MMT

 

No bean oil or soymeal deliveries

 

No receipt changes.

 

Today is the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll. They are rolling their long Nov 2014 beans to Nov 2015. Yesterday on the close 1,250 Nov 2014-Nov 2015 bean spreads traded at -26 ¼ to -23 ¼ . Some analysts thought DB would roll 3,000-4,000 spreads per day and others said they would roll 1,000-2,000 spreads per day.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,292,780 open, up 5,394
  • Total beans 773,187 open, up 1,008
  • October meal 4,596 open, down 1,504
  • Total meal 350,560 open, down 2,968
  • October bean oil 2,717 open, down 671
  • Total bean oil 379,464 open, down 2,178
  • Total wheat 426,875 open, up 1,858
  • Total KC wheat 155,509 open, up 1,723

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Tuesday Oct 7th and ends Oct 13th. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday October 9th with their Brazil ‘14/15 crop estimates . This will be the first time CONAB will estimate ‘14/15 crops
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-10th palm oil exports on Friday October 10th
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out on October 10th with their Sept palm oil data report.
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday October 10th
  • Last trading day for October futures is Tuesday October 14th. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Wednesday October 15th at 11 am CST
  • November options expire Friday October 24th at 115 pm CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE