News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

A wolf remains a wolf, even if it has not eaten your sheep

–          V.I.N.CENT

 

USDA announced 174,000 tons of corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Deutsche Bank roll begins today and ends Oct 8th. They will be rolling long Nov 2014 bean positions into Nov 2015 . Some analysts said they will be rolling 3,000-4,000 spreads per day.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 1 at 915 ¾
  • CZ down a ½ at 320 ¾
  • WZ up 5 ¼ at 484 ¼
  • KC WZ up 6 at 563 ½
  • MWZ up 4 ¾ at 536 ½
  • SMZ down .30 at 298.30
  • BOZ down 29 at 3251
  • RRX unchanged at 1264

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,523
  • CZ 8,903
  • WZ 7,739
  • KC WZ 883
  • MWZ 251
  • SMZ 5,219
  • BOZ 10,576
  • RRX 492

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady lower
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 5-7 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal steady lower
  • Bean oil  25-35 lower
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Crude, gold, silver, dollar, and stock market all lower.

 

Nikkei down 2.61%

 

China markets are closed for holiday. China returns from holiday on Wednesday October 8th.

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -8K to 287K expecting 297K

 

Malaysian palm oil down 45.

 

Lack of fresh news this morning.

 

Thailand bought 1 cargo of US soymeal for Feb shipment and bought 1 cargo of Brazilian soymeal for April shipment. Thailand was seeking up to 430,000 tons of optional origin soymeal.

 

Taiwan bought 80,000 tons of US wheat for Nov –Dec shipment

 

South Korea CJ bought 36,500 tons of Australian milling wheat for Feb-March shipment

 

Talk/Reports China bought Ukrainian corn. China signed agreement earlier this year to buy 2.0 MMT of corn from Ukraine this season , and some analysts believe China had already bought the 2.0 M corn from Ukraine.

 

Maldives seeks 31,000 optional origin wheat flour

 

Egypt Supply Minister said Egypt state wheat imports to fall to 4-4.5 MMT next year

 

No bean oil or soymeal deliveries last night.

 

1 bean oil receipt was canceled yesterday afternoon out of Ag Processing Emmetsburg IA . Total bean oil receipts registered is 4,389

 

Some rains in forecast for US Midwest may slightly delay harvesting.

 

Technically oversold

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat – ‘14/15 741,000 tons (expecting 400-600,000 tons)
  • Corn –  ‘14/15 638,000 tons ‘15/16 47,900 tons (expecting 650-900,000 tons)
  • Beans –  ‘14/15 869,100 tons ‘15/16 21,500 tons (expecting 700,000-1.0 million tons)
  • Meal –  ‘13/14 -26,800 tons ‘14/15 259,300 tons (expecting 125-325,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 -3,400 tons ‘14/15 27,200 tons (expecting -5,000 to +20,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 741,000 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were up 92 percent from the previous week and 90 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Nigeria (241,300 MT), Vietnam (64,500 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Ecuador (54,500 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), unknown destinations (53,200 MT), Italy (45,300 MT), Mexico (41,000 MT), and Venezuela (40,000 MT). Exports of 554,700 MT were up 20 percent from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Taiwan (88,300 MT), Nigeria (81,000 MT), Mexico (77,200 MT), Brazil (75,200 MT), Japan (66,600 MT), Ecuador (54,500 MT), Italy (42,800 MT), and Vietnam (38,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 638,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Mexico (164,800 MT), Canada (115,800 MT), South Korea (67,800 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (64,600 MT, including 38,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 14,900 MT), and Taiwan (40,300 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (8,600 MT), Costa Rica (3,800 MT), and Jamaica (1,000 MT). Net sales of 47,900 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 620,400 MT were primarily to Japan (232,000 MT), Mexico (147,800 MT), Colombia (111,700 MT), South Korea (68,000 MT), and Canada (40,800 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 869,100 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for China (730,800 MT, including 189,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 70,700 MT), the Netherlands (141,500 MT, including 140,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,000 MT), Taiwan (69,400 MT), Mexico (43,900 MT), and Japan (35,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (196,500 MT), Thailand (14,100 MT)and Colombia (1,000 MT). Net sales of 21,500 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Thailand. Exports of 752,400 MT were primarily to China (486,700 MT), the Netherlands (141,500 MT), Mexico (60,000 MT), Colombia (16,000 MT), and Indonesia (12,100 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales reductions of 26,800 MT for 2013/2014 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Venezuela (29,700 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Canada (5,500 MT), Spain (2,700 MT), and the Philippines (500 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Mexico (30,900 MT), unknown destinations (29,700 MT), Japan (2,600 MT), Saudi Arabia (1,500 MT), and Jamaica (500 MT). Net sales of 259,300 MT for 2014/2015 reported for the Philippines (85,800 MT), Vietnam (82,900 MT), Mexico (67,300 MT), and Panama (23,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (88,600 MT). Exports of 140,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 89 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (43,300 MT), Spain (42,700 MT), Venezuela (29,700 MT), Canada (15,600 MT), and Jamaica (4,000 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales reductions of 3,400 MT for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for Trinidad (100 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Mexico (3,500 MT) and Canada (100 MT). Net sales of 27,200 MT for 2014/2015 reported for Colombia (10,400 MT), Nicaragua (7,600 MT), Guatemala (6,000 MT), and Mexico (4,200 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (4,000 MT). Exports of 12,500 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (10,500 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Canada (200 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT).

 

FC Stone 2014 US crop estimates from yesterday afternoon

  • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.958 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.595 BB and vs. USDA estimate of 14.395 BB
  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 178.4 BPA vs. previous estimate of 174.1 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 171.7 BPA
    • 2014 IL corn yield estimated at 221 BPA vs. previous estimate of 201 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 194 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 4.066 BB vs. previous estimate of 4.0 BB and vs. USDA estimate of 3.913 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 48.4 BPA vs. previous estimate of 47.6 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 46.6 BPA
    • 2014 IL bean yield estimated at 61.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 58.0 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 56.0 BPA

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,286,003 open, up 836
  • Total beans  771,757 open, down 2,902
  • October meal 6,100 open, down 1,339
  • Total meal 353,537 open, up 2,508
  • October bean oil 3,388 open, down 738
  • Total bean oil 381,674 open, up 3,797
  • Total wheat 425,098 open, up 1,916
  • Total KC wheat 153,786 open, up 1,976

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +107 BCF
  • US September unemployment comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST with their 2014 Canadian crop estimates. Based on a Reuters survey
    • 2014 total wheat crop average estimate at 28.0 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 27.705 MMT
    • 2014 spring wheat crop average estimate at 19.659 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 19.972 MMT
    • 2014 durum wheat crop average estimate 5.1 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 4.9532 MMT
    • 2014 canola crop average estimate at 14.6 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 13.908
    • 2014 barley crop average estimate 7.3 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 7.164 MMT
    • 2014 oat crop average estimate 2.7 MMT vs. Stats Canada August estimate of 2.639 MMT
    • 2014 corn crop average estimate 11.8 MMT vs. Stats Canada August estimate of 11.4305 MMT
    • 2014 bean crop average estimate 5.9 MMT vs. Stats Canada August estimate of 5.9007 MMT
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US crop production estimate updates. Previous
    • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.281 BB
    • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 170.3 BPA
    • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 3.876 BB
    • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 46.1 BPA
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Tuesday Oct 7th and ends Oct 13th. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday October 9th with their Brazil ‘14/15 crop estimates . This will be the first time CONAB will estimate ‘14/15 crops
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-10th palm oil exports on Friday October 10th
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out on October 10th with their Sept palm oil data report.
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday October 10th
  • Last trading day for October futures is Tuesday October 14th. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Wednesday October 15th at 11 am CST
  • November options expire Friday October 24th at 115 pm CST.

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE