News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

You can get what you want or you can just get old.

– Billy Joel

 

Today is the beginning of a new month and a new quarter.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Egypt GASC is in for optional origin wheat for November shipment

 

FC Stone comes out today after the close with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates

  • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.595 BB vs. USDA September estimate of 14.395
  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 174.1 BPA vs. USDA September estimate of 171.7 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 4.0 BB vs. USDA September estimate of 3.913 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 47.6 BPA vs. September estimate of 46.6 BPA

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 3 ¾ at 909 ½
  • CZ down 1 at 319 ¾
  • WZ down 3 ¼ at 474 ½
  • KC WZ down 4 ¼ at 553 ¾
  • MWZ down 4 at 529 ½
  • SMZ down .40 at 298.50
  • BOZ up 4 at 3241
  • RRX down 2 at 1273

 

Dec corn made a new contract low overnight of 318 ½

 

Dec meal made a new contract low overnight of 296.30

 

Dec KC wheat made a new contract low overnight of 553

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low overnight of 529

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,900
  • CZ 11,291
  • WZ 5,930
  • KC WZ 957
  • MWZ 196
  • SMZ 4,687
  • BOZ 4,649
  • RRX 131

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-4 lower
  • Meal steady to 1.00 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Stock market lower. Dollar , gold, silver, and crude oil lower.

 

Nikkei down .56%

China markets closed.

 

China Golden Week holiday started today. They will be on holiday until Wednesday October 8th.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a draw of 463,000 barrels expecting a build of 700,000 barrels
  • Gas a draw of 2.5 MB expecting a draw of 800,000 barrels
  • Distillates a draw of 1.8 MB expecting a draw of 100,000 barrels

 

Final September manufacturing PMIs

  • UK at 51.6 (lowest since April 2013) expecting 52.5 and vs. Aug final of 52.2
  • Eurozone at 50.3 (14 month low) expecting 50.5 and vs. Aug final of 50.7
  • Greece at 48.4 vs. August final of 50.1
  • Germany at 49.9 expecting 50.3 and vs. Aug final of 51.4
  • France at 48.8 as expected and vs. Aug final of 46.9
  • Italy at 50.7 expecting 49.5 and vs. Aug final of 49.8
  • China official at 51.1 expecting 51.0 and vs. Aug final of 51.1
  • Japan at 51.7 as expected vs. Aug final of 52.2

 

Malaysian palm oil down 18

 

Hearing China bought 1 Brazilian bean cargo for June shipment.

 

Thailand seeks up to 430,000 tons of optional origin soymeal for Jan-June shipment.

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 40,000 tons of sunflower oil for Oct – Nov shipment

 

Morocco bought 9,000 tons of US soft wheat for Dec shipment

 

Japan tenders to buy 22,130 tons of feed wheat and 32,095 tons of barley via SVS tender for Feb shipment

 

Iraq canceled tender for 30,000 tons of optional origin rice.

 

Goldman Sachs estimates

  • 3 and 6 month corn price forecast at $3 per bushel
  • 3 and 6 month bean price forecast at $8 per bushel
  • 3 and 6 month wheat price forecast at $4.50 per bushel
  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 175.0 BPA
  • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.552 BB
  • ‘14/15 US corn ending stocks estimated at 2.278 BB vs. USDA ‘13/14 ending stocks estimate of 1.236 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 47.5 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 3.969 BB
  • ‘14/15 US bean ending stocks estimated at 456 MB vs. USDA ‘13/14 ending stocks estimate of 92 MB

 

Analysts estimating Australia’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 22-23 MMT , down 1-2 MMT from ABARES estimate due to dryness in September.

 

Russia bought 6,885 tons of intervention grains making the total since the program started yesterday at 26,440 tons of grain bought.

 

Russia official data shows Russian farmers have already sold 50% of wheat exportable surplus . Farmers have sold 10 MMT of wheat so far

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan has exported 1.35 MMT of grain between July 1 – Sept 30th vs. 1.59 MMT a year ago

 

Reports of big yields in US continue.

 

Reports of lack of new demand

 

Some rains are in the forecast this week for US Midwest , but only expecting light delays in harvesting

 

259 bean oil deliveries with the date at September 2nd

  • Customer JP Morgan stopped 259

There are still 4,390 bean oil receipts registered.

 

No meal deliveries

 

Effective today 2014 NFA assessment fee will be lowered to 1 cent per side vs. 2 cents per side currently.

 

Today is the last day of the Rogers roll. They have been rolling long November bean positions into Jan.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,284,842 open, up 3,489
  • Total beans  774,895 open, down 5,199
  • October meal 7,442 open, down 1,381
  • Total meal 351,039 open, down 478
  • October bean oil 4,126 open, down 1,824
  • Total bean oil  377,903 open, down 1,727
  • Total wheat 423,165 open, up 5,140
  • Total KC wheat 151,810 open, up 1,803

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 600,000 barrels
    • Distillates unchanged
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins tomorrow. They will be rolling long Nov 2014 bean positions into Nov 2015. DB roll last for 5 days and they roll a few thousand spreads per day
  • US September unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada comes out on Friday at 730 am CST with their 2014 Canadian crop estimates. Based on a Reuters survey
    • 2014 total wheat crop average estimate at 28.0 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 27.705 MMT
    • 2014 spring wheat crop average estimate at 19.659 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 19.972 MMT
    • 2014 durum wheat crop average estimate 5.1 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 4.9532 MMT
    • 2014 canola crop average estimate at 14.6 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 13.908
    • 2014 barley crop average estimate 7.3 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 7.164 MMT
    • 2014 oat crop average estimate 2.7 MMT vs. Stats Canada August estimate of 2.639 MMT
    • 2014 corn crop average estimate 11.8 MMT vs. Stats Canada August estimate of 11.4305 MMT
    • 2014 bean crop average estimate 5.9 MMT vs. Stats Canada August estimate of 5.9007 MMT
  • Informa comes out on Friday at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US crop production estimate updates. Previous
    • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.281 BB
    • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 170.3 BPA
    • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 3.876 BB
    • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 46.1 BPA
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and ends Oct 13th. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday October 9th with their Brazil ‘14/15 crop estimates . This will be the first time CONAB will estimate ‘14/15 crops
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-10th palm oil exports on Friday October 10th
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out on October 10th with their Sept palm oil data report.
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday October 10th
  • Last trading day for October futures is Tuesday October 14th. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Wednesday October 15th at 11 am CST
  • November options expire Friday October 24th at 115 pm CST.

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE