News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“Don’t do anything in practice that you wouldn’t do in the game.”

–          George Halas

 

USDA Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains Production Report comes out today at 11 am CST. See attachment for recap table for report.

 

No USDA announcements this morning .

 

Today is the end of month and end of the quarter.

 

Today is first notice day for October bean oil and soymeal. Deliveries

  • Bean oil 404 with the date at 9/2/14 (expecting 100-400) . There are 4,390 bean oil receipts registered
    • House Term issued 49
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 145
  • Soymeal 0 as expected . There are 0 meal receipts registered

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 5 ½ at 918
  • CZ down 1 ½ at 324 ½
  • WZ down 4 ¾ at 476 ½
  • KC WZ down 3 ½ at 563
  • MWZ down 3 ¾ at 535 ½
  • SMZ down 1.50 at 302.40
  • BOZ down 11 at 3283
  • RRX up 5 at 1278.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,575
  • CZ 17,892
  • WZ 3,606
  • KC WZ 393
  • MWZ 168
  • SMZ 3,455
  • BOZ 8,741
  • RRX 378

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 4-6 higher

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold, and silver lower.

 

Nikkei down .84%

Hang Seng down 1.3% and down 1.1% this quarter

Shanghai Index up .3% and up 15.4% this quarter

 

China’s final September HSBC manufacturing PMI at 50.2 vs. flash of 50.5 and vs. August final of 50.2

 

EU CPI at lowest level since 2009

 

China grain closings = beans down 11, corn unchanged, Jan meal (more volume traded last night) down 5 and May meal (slightly larger open interest) up 18, palm oil up 54 and bean oil up 84

 

Malaysian palm oil up 28.

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Sept 20-26th total crush volume at 1,507,000 tons up 1.09% from a week ago
  • For the week Sept 20-26th total crush capacity utilization at 51.15% up .56% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013-Sept 26, 2014) crush volume at 70,812,838 tons up 15.53% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 – Sept 26 2014) crush volume at 52,263,241 tons up 12.95% from a year ago
  • As of Sept 26th total imported bean stocks at 5.9162 MMT vs. 6.1052 MMT a week ago and up 4.73% from a year ago
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.998 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 4.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 5.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

China’s government has kicked off a media campaign in support of genetically modified crops, as it battles a wave of negative publicity over a technology it hopes will play a major role in boosting its food security – Reuters

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s September palm oil exports at 1,494,371 tons up 16.5% from August

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s September palm oil exports at 1,497,828 tons up 16.3% from August

 

Turkey seeks 200,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Oct-Nov shipment

 

South Korea bought 10,000 tons of US rice for December shipment

 

AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 94.8 MMT (record)

 

AgRural said Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop was 2% planted as of Friday vs. 1% a year ago

 

Russia’s government stated grain intervention purchases. Russia bought 19,555 tons of grain today.

 

Russia’s government to buy 5.0 MMT of domestic grain this season

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Sept 29th Russia has harvested 96.1 MMT of grain on 38.0 MH with an average yield of 2.53 TPH. A year ago Russia farmers harvested 78.2 MMT of grain on 35.8 MH with an average yield of 2.18 TPH.

 

Ukragroconsult estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 wheat exports at 10.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.5 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Sept 29th Ukraine harvested 41.213 MMT of grain on 11.065 MH with an average yield of 3.72 TPH. A year ago Ukraine farmers harvested 35.899 MMT of grain on 10.987 MH with an average yield of 3.27 TPH

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 corn yield at 174.9 BPA vs. previous estimate of 174.5 BPA

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 corn crop at 14.596 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.564 BB

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 corn harvested area at 83.471 million acres unchanged from previous estimate

 

Lanworth estimated 2014 US bean yield at 47.1 BPA vs. previous estimate of 47.0 BPA

 

Lanworth estimated 2014 US bean crop at 3.880 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.873 BB

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 bean harvested area at 82.449 million acres unchanged from previous estimate

 

 

HGCA expects India to scale back bean oil imports due to monsoon rains boosting domestic crops.

 

HGCA said India’s bean oil domestic supply is expected to increase by 300,000 tons year on year

 

Last week China sold 436,752 tons of corn at auctions.

 

Argentina Ag Min said as of Sept 26th sunseed planting was 21% complete vs. 14% complete a year ago .

 

Argentina Ag Min estimated sunseed planting area at 1.4 MH

 

BAFA said Germany’s Jan-July 2014 biodiesel use at 10.8 MMT vs. 10.6 MMT a year ago

 

48 oat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Today is the second day of the Rogers roll. Rogers roll ends tomorrow. They are rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan. Yesterday on the close

  • 1,283 Nov Jan bean spreads traded electronically at – 8 ¾ to – 8 ½
  • 328 Nov Jan bean spreads traded in the pit at – 8 ¾ to -8 ½

 

Weekly US export inspections report from yesterday at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 573,647 tons expecting 400,000-500,000 tons
  • Corn at 601,825 tons expecting 950,000 – 1.1 million tons
  • Beans at 687,191 tons expecting 400,000-550,000 tons

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 74% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (as expected) vs. 55% good to excellent a year ago
  • Dented 96% vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 97% five year average
  • Mature 60% vs. 42% a week ago and vs. 70% five year average
  • Harvested 12% (expecting 12-17% complete) vs. 7% a week ago and vs. 23% five year average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 72% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago (expecting unchanged from a week ago) vs. 53% a year ago
  • Dropping leaves 69% vs. 45% a week ago and vs. 71% five year average
  • Harvested 10% (expecting 9-12% complete) vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 17% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Harvested 94% vs. 86% a week ago and vs. 96% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Planting 43% vs. 25% a week ago and vs. 36% five year average
  • Emerged 14% vs. 11% a year ago and vs. 12% five year average

 

Rice

  • Harvested 59% vs. 46% a week ago and vs. 62% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 49% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 42% a year ago
  • Bolls opening 64% vs. 58% a week ago and vs. 70% five year average
  • Harvested 10% vs. 8% a week ago and vs. 13% five year average

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat bot 2K
  • Corn bot 3K
  • Beans bot 5K
  • Meal bot 1K
  • Bean oil bot 3K

 

Crush quotes from yesterday

 

OPEN                CLOSE

OCT         1.12-1.135       1.14-1.16

DEC         1.04-1.055       1.07-1.085

FZZ          95.5-97             98-1.00

JAN         94-95                 95.5-97.5

MCH       85-86.5             87-88

MAY       79.5-80              80-82

JJLY         79.5-80              80.5-81

AUG       78.5-82              80-82

SEP          88-94                 90-94

OCT5       89-94                89-93

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,280,903 open, up 3,118
  • Total beans  779,945 open, up 10,654
  • October meal 9,210 open, down 4,182
  • Total meal 351,908 open, up 5,470
  • October bean oil 5,950 open, down 4,644
  • Total bean oil 379,635 open, down 4,235
  • Total wheat 418,005 open, up 2,550
  • Total KC wheat 150,011 open, down 189

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • CEC comes out today with their final South African production estimates
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Starting tomorrow China is on holiday for one week. Markets will be closed.
  • Effective tomorrow 2014 NFA assessment fee will be lowered to 1 cent per side vs. 2 cents per side currently.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 600,000 barrels
    • Distillates unchanged
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Thursday. They will be rolling long Nov 2014 bean positions into Nov 2015. DB roll last for 5 days and they roll a few thousand spreads per day
  • US September unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada comes out on Friday with their 2014 Canadian crop estimates. Based on a Bloomberg survey
    • 2014 total wheat crop average estimate at 27.707 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 27.705 MMT
    • 2014 spring wheat crop average estimate at 19.659 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 19.972 MMT
    • 2014 canola crop average estimate at 14.140 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 13.908
    • 2014 barley crop average estimate 7.156 MMT vs. Stats Canada Aug estimate of 7.164 MMT
    • 2014 oat crop average estimate 2.604 MMT vs. Stats Canada August estimate of 2.639 MMT
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and ends Oct 13th. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE