News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

if you aren’t confused you don’t understand the issues

–          Anon

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Rogers roll begins today and ends on Wednesday. They will be rolling long November bean positions to January.

 

Today is position day for October meal and bean oil. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery. Tomorrow is first notice day. Expecting 0 meal deliveries tonight and expecting light bean oil deliveries (0-400) tonight. There are 0 meal receipts registered as of Friday afternoon and there were 4,390 bean oil receipts registered as of Friday afternoon

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down ¾ at 905 ½
  • CZ up a ½ at 323 ½
  • WZ up 4 ¼ at 478 ½
  • KC WZ up 1 at 564 ¾
  • MWZ up 2 ¾ at 536
  • SMZ down .70 at 300.40
  • BOZ up 30 at 3229
  • RRX up 3 at 1284.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 16,523
  • CZ 9,867
  • WZ 7,035
  • KC WZ 838
  • MWZ 342
  • SMZ 6,875
  • BOZ 10,783
  • RRX 64

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1- 2 lower
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal .50-1.00 lower
  • Bean oil  25-35 higher
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Dollar, crude, and stock market lower. Gold and silver higher

 

Nikkei up .50%

Hang Seng down 1.9%

Shanghai Index up .5%

 

China grain closings = beans up 18, corn up 5, meal down 27, palm oil down 42, and bean oil down 50.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 11.

 

Indonesia did remove crude palm oil export tax for October

 

Globoil edible oils conference in Mumbai over the weekend

  • Thomas Mielke from Oil World said he sees increased farmer selling of soybeans in Argentina if currency devalued
  • Mielke said more soybean oil will be required , boosting world soybean crush by 15-16 MMT in ‘14/15
  • Mielke said Indian soybean prices seen dropping to minimum support prices by Dec-Jan
  • Mielke said India may raise import duty on Veg Oils in October
  • Veteran trader said India’s ‘14/15 palm oil imports estimated at 8.25 MMT vs. ‘13/14 imports of 7.91 MMT
  • Veteran trader said India’s ‘14/15 edible oils demand seen at a record 19.3 MMT vs. 18.3 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Veteran trader estimated India’s ‘14/15 edible oil output at 7.2 MMT vs. 7.05 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Dorab Mistry said crude palm oil prices could drop 13% to 1,900 ringgit per ton
  • Dorab Mistry said soybean prices could hit new lows in January due to large South American crop
  • Dorab Mistry estimated Indonesia’s 2014 palm oil output at 30.5+ MMT
  • Dorab Mistry estimated ‘14/15 India’s edible oil imports to rise 500,000 tons to 12.1 MMT

 

Hearing China’s Sino Grain bought 100,000 tons of Brazilian bean oil last week for Nov /Dec shipment

 

Reports/Talk from Friday that China will sell rapeseed oil from reserves

 

Europe was showing interest in US meal for January forward shipment last week

 

Taiwan’s MFIG bought 60,000 tons of Brazilian corn for Nov-Dec shipment

 

Mauritius seeks 53,600 tons of optional origin wheat flour for Jan 2015 –Dec 2015 shipment

 

Taiwan seeks 80,000 tons of US milling wheat for Nov-Dec shipment

 

Oman seeks 60,000 tons of German or Russian wheat for Jan shipment

 

UAE bought 120,000 tons of soft wheat , 15,000 tons of hard wheat, 40,000 tons of corn , and 30,000 tons of feed barley for Feb-May shipment

 

IMEA said on Friday that Mato Grosso Brazil bean planting is 1.7% complete vs. .3% a week ago and vs. .7% a year ago

 

DERAL said on Thursday Parana Brazil has planted 7% of their bean crop

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso Brazil bean area at 8.8 MH

 

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences estimated Australia’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 24.234 MMT

 

Russia Ag Min said Russia exported 3.0 MMT of grain between Sept 1st – Sept 24th

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 10.7 MMT of grain between July 1-Sept 27th up 26.6% from a year ago

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s September grain exports at 3.5 -3.7 MMT vs. August record of 4.6 MMT

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 33.0 MMT

 

ADM Germany (formerly Toepfer) estimated EU 2014 corn crop at 70.46 MMT vs. 64.48 MMT in 2013

 

COPA said Canadian crushers crushed 134,704 tons of canola in the week ending Sept 24th down 6.2% from a week ago

 

COPA said Canadian crushers crushed 14,145 tons of beans in the week ending Sept 24th down 30.5% from a week ago

 

Good US harvest weather over the weekend

 

US weather remains favorable

 

Reports of good to excellent yields continue

 

There were not any changes to registrations on Friday night

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentine crop progress report from last week

  • Corn planting 6.4% complete vs. 4.3% a week ago and vs. 4.6% a year ago
  • Corn planting area estimated at 3.0 MH unchanged from previous estimate and down 16% from a year ago
  • Sunflower planting is 20.7% complete vs. 20.5% a week ago and vs. 21.1% a year ago
  • Sunflower planting area estimated at 1.35 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Sept 23rd. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 90,919
  • KC wheat short 14,595
  • Corn long 12,631
  • Beans short 86,227
  • Meal long 13,308
  • Bean oil short 1,924

 

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA 2014 US wheat crop and quarterly stocks report. Report comes out at 11 am CST

 

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks as of September 1st.

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.880 BB , range of estimates are 1.707-1.980 BB . US June 1st, 2014 wheat stocks were .590 BB and Sept 1st , 2013 wheat stocks were 1.870 BB
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.185 BB, range of estimates are 1.020-1.350 BB. US June 1st, 2014 corn stocks were 3.854 BB and Sept 1st , 2013 corn stocks were .821 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .126 BB, range of estimates are .100-.150 BB. US June 1st 2014 bean stocks were .405 BB and Sept 1st, 2013 bean stocks were .141 BB

 

Estimates for US 2014 wheat crop

  • All wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 2.037 BB, range of estimates are 2.004-2.075 BB. USDA August estimate was 2.030 BB and US 2013 all wheat crop was 2.130 BB
  • All winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.394 BB, range of estimates are 1.376-1.413 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.397 BB and US 2013 all winter wheat crop was 1.534 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .728 BB, range of estimates are .707-.758 BB. USDA August estimate was .729 BB and US 2013 HRW wheat crop was .744 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .465 BB, range of estimates are .437-.472 BB. USDA August estimate was .466 BB and US 2013 SRW wheat crop was .565 BB
  • White winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .201 BB, range of estimates are .193-.213 BB. USDA August estimate was .202 BB and US 2013 WW wheat crop was .225 BB
  • Other spring wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .580, range of estimates are .558-.608 BB. USDA August estimate was .572 BB and US 2013 other spring wheat crop was .534 BB.
  • Durum wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .062 BB , range of estimates are .056-.070 BB. USDA August estimate was .061 BB and US 2013 durum wheat crop was .062 BB

 

Estimates for US 2013 bean production . 8 of the last 10 September stocks reports revised estimate for the prior year’s bean crop.

  • US 2013 bean crop (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 3.362 BB, range of estimates are 3.289-3.400 BB and USDA previous estimate was 3.289 BB.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,283,483 open, down 8,396
  • Total beans 770,997 open, up 6,525
  • Total meal 353,160 open, up 2,034
  • Total bean oil 388,139 open, up 1,566
  • Total wheat 414,307 open, down 2,626
  • Total KC wheat 150,221 open, up 1,093

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting
    • Corn good to excellent conditions unchanged from a week ago
    • Soybean good to excellent conditions unchanged from a week ago
    • Corn harvest 12-17% complete
    • Bean harvest 9-12% complete
  • Tonight/tomorrow China’s final HSBC September PMI comes out
  • Tomorrow is the end of the month and the end of the quarter
  • CEC comes out tomorrow with their final South African production estimates
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s September palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Tuesday Sept 30th USDA quarterly grain stocks report and small grains summary report comes out at 11 am CST.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • China is on holiday October 1st
  • Effective October 1st 2014 NFA assessment fee will be lowered to 1 cent per side vs. 2 cents per side currently.
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins October 2nd. They will be rolling long Nov 2014 bean positions into Nov 2015. DB roll last for 5 days and they roll a few thousand spreads per day
  • US September unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and ends Oct 13th. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE