News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

An intellectual says a simple thing in a hard way. An artist says a hard thing in a simple way.

-Charles Bukowski

 

FC Stone comes out today about 3 pm CST with their 2014 US crop estimates.

 

USDA announced 102,000 tons of US beans sold to Taiwan for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 110,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 13 ½ at 1072
  • CZ up 3 ¼ at 365 ½
  • WU up 11 ¼ at 545 ¼
  • KC WU up 8 ¼ at 641
  • MWU  up 6 ¾ at 622 ¾
  • SMZ up 5.20 at 347.60
  • BOZ up 14 at 3585
  • RRU down 2 at 1277

 

November beans made a new contract low overnight of 1054

 

Dec corn made a new contract low overnight of 361

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low overnight of 3563

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 27,441
  • CZ 9,623
  • WU 9,418
  • KC WU 1,148
  • MWU 239
  • SMZ 7,053
  • BOZ 9,100
  • RRU 46

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 higher – 22 cent range overnight
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 10-15 higher
  • KC wheat 7-10 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 5-10 higher
  • Meal 4.50-5.50 higher – $9 range overnight
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Dollar, silver, and stock market higher. Crude and gold lower.

 

Nikkei down .32%

Hang Seng up .27%

Shanghai Index up 1.68%

 

Canadian markets closed for holiday.

 

China grain closings = beans up 46, corn up 22, meal down 6, palm oil down 16, bean oil down 42.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 16

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s July palm oil exports at 1,350,233 tons down 2.8% from June exports.

 

Strategie Grains estimated 2014 EU rapeseed crop at 22.9 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 22.5 MMT up 8.5% from 2013.

 

Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global palm kernel meal imports at 5.1 MMT vs. ‘12/13 imports of 5.0 MMT

 

Concerns over the quality of the EU wheat crop continues.

 

Midwest forecast still nonthreatening. Not as wet as Friday’s forecast but rains are still in the forecast with no heat stress to crops.

 

803 bean oil deliveries with the date at 7/31/14 . JP Morgan customer stopped 270.

 

95 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon . 7,121 soybean oil receipts remain open

  • 50 canceled out of Minnesota Soybean Processors Brewster MN
  • 45 canceled out of Solae Gibson City IL

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,375,591 open, down 4,635
  • Aug beans 7,544 open, down 2,396
  • Total beans 621,306 open, up 12,844
  • Aug meal 3,110 open, down 1,222
  • Total meal 308,359 open, up 2,255
  • Aug bean oil 2,931 open, down 1,226
  • Total bean oil 329,786 open, up 652
  • Total wheat 435,986 open, down 3,678
  • Total KC wheat 146,077 open, up 1,195

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST.
    • Corn yield 165.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 165.3 BPA
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST. Expecting
    • Corn conditions steady to 2% lower from a week ago
    • Bean conditions steady to 2% lower from a week ago
    • Spring wheat conditions steady to 1% lower than a week ago
  • ECB meets this week
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST . Previous estimates were
    • Bean crop 3.7 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.8 BB
    • Bean yield 44.5 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 45.2 BPA
    • Corn crop 13.73 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.86 BB
  • US trade balance report comes out on Wednesday at 730 am CST
  • Reuters report estimates for Aug 12th USDA report should be out on Wednesday.
  • Goldman Sachs roll starts on Thursday and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into December.
  • China’s July trade balance report comes out Thursday night/early Friday morning
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Last trading day for August futures is August 14th. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE