News From The Grain Floor

The first condition of understanding a foreign country is to smell it.

Rudyard Kipling

 

Today is position day for August futures. Traders should be out of long positions before the close or risk delivery. Expectations for deliveries and open interest in August futures.

  • Soybeans – August open interest as of yesterday’s close was 17,719 open, down 5,985. Expecting 0 deliveries. As of yesterday afternoon there were 0 soybean receipts registered.
  • Soymeal – August open interest as of yesterday’s close was 12,482 open, down 5,401. Expecting 0 deliveries. As of yesterday afternoon there were 0 soymeal receipts registered.
  • Bean oil – August open interest as of yesterday’s close was 11,402 open, down 3,328. Expecting 300-700 bean oil deliveries. As of yesterday afternoon there were 7,424 bean oil receipts registered.

 

Egypt GASC in for wheat for September shipment. Should have results sometime this morning. Analysts said US in not competitive , wheat basis too high at Gulf, Egypt will probably buy Black Sea origin wheat.

 

USDA announced 205,500 tons of US wheat sold to Nigeria. Breakdown

  • 151,500 tons of hard red winter wheat . 131,500 tons for ‘14/15 shipment and 20,000 tons for ‘15/16 shipment
  • 54,000 tons of soft red winter wheat. 44,000 tons for ‘14/15 shipment and 10,000 tons for ‘15/16 shipment

 

Rogers roll begins today and ends Friday. They will be rolling their long September wheat, KC wheat, and corn positions into December.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 7 ¾ at 1087 ¼
  • CZ down 2 ½ at 368 ½
  • WU up a ½ at 520 ½
  • KC WU up ¾ at 612 ¼ – low overnight was $6.11. $6.11 is the contract low made yesterday
  • MWU up 2 ½ at 613
  • SMZ down 3.00 at 351.30
  • BOZ down 6 at 3647
  • RRU down 10 at 1303

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,901
  • CZ 11,691
  • WU 6,171
  • KC WU 760
  • MWU 224
  • SMZ 4,380
  • BOZ 7,008
  • RRU 26

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-10 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat steady better
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice  8-10 lower

 

Dollar, stock market, crude oil, gold , and silver are all higher this morning .

 

Nikkei up .18%

Hang Seng up .4%

Shanghai Index down .1%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude – a draw of 4.4 MB, expecting a draw of 1.5 MB
  • Gas – a build of 60,000, expecting a build of 1.3 MB
  • Distillates – a build of 547,000, expecting a build of 1.5 MB

 

Today is the second day of the two day FOMC policy meeting. Fed announcement at 1 pm CST today.

 

Probable Argentina will default tomorrow.

 

China grain closings = beans down 29, corn unchanged, meal down 19, palm oil down 12, and bean oil down 28

 

Malaysian palm oil up 2.

 

Hearing China eyeing/buying more new crop US bean cargoes yesterday

 

China Ministry of Commerce August import estimates

  • Palm oil imports estimated at 25,300 tons vs. June imports of 395,736 tons
  • Bean oil imports estimated at 25,000 tons vs. June imports of 96,556 tons
  • Soybean imports estimated at 3.84 MMT vs. June imports of 6.389 MMT

 

South Korea MFG bought 52,000 feed wheat optional origin for Oct-Dec shipment .

 

Japan seeks 26,340 tons of feed wheat and 122,750 tons of barley via SBS tender for Oct –Dec shipment

 

Yesterday, the second day of the CWB Canadian wheat tour estimated Northwest Saskatchewan and Northeast Alberta wheat yield at 59.0 BPA vs. 55.0 BPA a year ago and vs. 43.0 BPA average.

 

USDA attaché in Russia estimated ‘14/15 total grain crop at 94.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 92.0 MMT. Including 52.0 MMT of wheat, 16 MMT of barley, 13 MMT of corn, and about 13 MMT of other grains and pulses.

 

USDA attaché in Russia estimated ‘14/15 grain exports at 26.0 MMT

 

Rainfall outlook for Midwest has improved for early next week

 

Meteorolgix weather said Europe’s weather forecast calls for warmer and drier weather next week, favorable for harvest. Europe’s harvest has been delayed recently due to wet weather.

 

170 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Bunge Decatur IN. 7,424 bean oil receipts remain registered.

 

8 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon. 267 receipts remain registered

 

Today is the third day of the Inaugural Canadian crop tour. Tour ends tomorrow

 

Today is the last day of the US Grains Council annual 3 day meeting in Omaha, NE.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,383,261 open, up 12,274
  • Total beans 610,455 open, down 11,704
  • Total meal 311,202 open, up 523
  • Total bean oil 330,973 open, up 2,384
  • Total wheat 440,222 open, up 7,821
  • Total KC wheat 143,266 open, up 1,148

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.25 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.0 MB
    • Distillates a build of 1.5 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Tomorrow is month end
  • Surveyor Intertek Agri Services will estimate July Malaysian palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am
  • Estimates from the Inaugural Canadian crop tour (spring wheat, durum wheat, and canola) are expected tomorrow  afternoon.
  • First notice day for August futures is tomorrow.
  • Tomorrow night/Friday morning China’s HSBC July final mfg PMI comes out
  • On Friday Germany, Eurozone, France, and Italy July final mfg PMI comes out
  • US July unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Surveyor SGS will estimate July Malaysian palm oil exports on Monday, Aug 4th (report delayed due to end of Ramadan holidays)
  • Goldman Sachs roll starts on August 7th and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into December.
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE