News From The Grain Floor

Money doesn’t always bring happiness. People with ten million dollars are no happier than people with nine million dollars.

–Hobart Brown

 

USDA announced 147,000 US new crop corn sold to Columbia.

 

USDA announced 135,000 US new crop soymeal sold to unknown.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 10 at 1097 ¾
  • CZ down 2 ¾ at 374
  • WU down 2 at 532 ¾
  • KC WU down ¾ at 624 ¾
  • MWU down ¾ at 620 ½
  • SMZ down 4.10 at 353.20
  • BOZ down 15 at 3663
  • RRU up 5 at 1297.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 29,588
  • CZ 7,870
  • WU 4,879
  • KC WU 1,020
  • MWU 68
  • SMZ 7,663
  • BOZ 973
  • RRU 54

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 8-11 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil  10-20 lower
  • Rice 4-6 higher

 

Crude lower. Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver higher.

 

Nikkei up .56%

Hang Seng up .85%

Shanghai Index up .24%

 

FOMC two day policy meeting begins today

 

Malaysian palm oil markets are closed today , trading resumes tomorrow

 

China grain closings beans up 49, corn up 11, meal up 49, palm oil up 36, and bean oil up 46

 

Hearing China bought 2-3 US bean cargoes off the Gulf yesterday for October shipment

 

Peru in for meal for Nov shipment

 

Egypt seeking corn for October shipment

 

China sold 94,009 tons of beans (or 26.6% of total offered) at today’s auction. They offered 353,843 tons of beans.

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week July 19-25th total crush volume at 1,336,900 tons down 8.28% from a week ago
  • For the week July 19-25th total crush capacity utilization at 46.20% down 4.17% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013-July 25, 2014) crush volume at 57,705,988 tons up 18.13% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1-July 25) crush volume at 39,157,191 tons up 16% from a year ago
  • As of July 25th total imported bean stocks at 5.9318 MMT vs. 5.9808 MMT a week ago and up .81% from a year ago
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.3235 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated August bean imports at 6.1 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated September bean imports at 4.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 4.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.8 MMT

 

China will investigate and punish illegal growth and sales of genetically modified crops without exception, Ministry of Agriculture says in a statement posted on its website yesterday. – Bloomberg

 

Today is the second day of the Inaugural Canadian crop tour, ends Thursday.

 

Doane’s eastern leg of the Midwest crop tour ends today.

  • Some bean crops in northeast IN are 1-3 weeks behind normal

 

Lack of rain in the Midwest with cool temps the next 7-10 days

 

67 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon , 275 remain open.

 

Less than 2,000 wheat options traded yesterday, pit and screen combined . Slowest day in years.

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 75% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago (expecting unchanged to 1% lower than a week ago) vs. 63% a year ago.
    • Kentucky good to excellent conditions at 66% down 9% from a week ago
    • Kansas good to excellent conditions at 59% down 5% from a week ago
    • Iowa good to excellent conditions at 78% up 1% from a week ago
    • Illinois good to excellent conditions at 82% up 1% from a week ago
    • Indiana good to excellent conditions at 75% down 1% from a week ago
    • Ohio good to excellent conditions at 76% up 1% from a week ago
  • Silking 78% vs. 56% a week ago and vs. 75% five year average.
  • Doughing 17% vs. 8% a year ago and vs. 16% five year average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 71% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago (expecting unchanged to 1% lower than a week ago) vs. 63% a year ago
    • Kentucky good to excellent at 66% down 11% from a week ago
    • Iowa 74% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • Nebraska 72% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago
    • Illinois 78% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago
    • Indiana 71% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago
    • Kansas 61% good to excellent down 6% from a week ago
    • Michigan 65% good to excellent down 4% from a week ago
  • Blooming 76% vs. 60% a week ago and vs. 72% five year average
  • Setting pods 38% vs. 19% a week ago and vs. 31% five year average

 

Spring Wheat

  • Condition 70% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged to 1% lower than a week ago) vs. 68% a year ago

 

Winter wheat

  • Harvested 83% complete (expecting around 87% complete) vs. 75% a week ago and vs. 80% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 71% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 69% a year ago
  • Headed 42% vs. 32% a week ago and vs. 44% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 54% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago and vs. 45% a year ago
  • Squaring 87% vs. 85% a week ago and vs. 89% five year average
  • Setting bolls 49% vs. 38% a week ago and vs. 51% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,370,571 open, down 6,854
  • Total beans 622,636 open, down 8,654
  • Total meal 310,715 open, down 2,415
  • Total bean oil 328,615 open, down 2,006
  • Total wheat 432,731 open, up 6,663
  • Total KC wheat 142,210 open, down 116

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.0 MB
    • Distillates a build of 1.5 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Fed announcement comes out tomorrow at about 1 pm CST
  • Position day for August futures is Wednesday. Traders should be out of their long bean, meal, and or bean oil positions or risk delivery.  Open interest in August futures as of yesterday’s close
    • Aug beans 24,155 open, down 4,974
    • Aug meal 17,883 open, down 4,613
    • Aug bean oil 14,730 open, down 5,136
  • Rogers roll begins tomorrow. They will be rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions to December . Rogers roll is 3 days long
  • Month end is Thursday.
  • Surveyor Intertek Agri Services will estimate July Malaysian palm oil exports on Thursday
  • Estimates from the Inaugural Canadian crop tour (spring wheat, durum wheat, and canola) are expected Thursday afternoon.
  • First notice day for August futures is Thursday. Early expectations for delivery are
    • Beans 0, 0 receipts are registered as of Friday afternoon
    • Meal 0, 0 receipts are registered as of Friday afternoon
    • Bean oil 300-700, 7,594 receipts are registered as of Friday afternoon.
  • Thursday night/Friday morning China’s HSBC July final mfg PMI comes out
  • On Friday Germany, Eurozone, France, and Italy July final mfg PMI comes out
  • US July unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Surveyor SGS will estimate July Malaysian palm oil exports on Aug 4th (report delayed)
  • Goldman Sachs roll starts on August 7th and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into December.
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE