News From The Grain Floor

Don’t mistake pleasure for happiness. They are a different breed of dogs.

–Josh Billings

 

USDA announced 486,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 101,000 tons of US wheat sold to Nigeria.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 14 ½ at 1098
  • CZ up 3 at 374 ¾
  • WU down 3 ¾ at 534 ¼
  • KC WU down 4 ¼ at 627
  • MWU down 5 ½ at 622 ¼
  • SMZ up 4.20 at 354.40
  • BOZ up 26 at 3651
  • RRU down 4 at 1289

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 20,578
  • CZ 13,503
  • WU 7,357
  • KC WU 681
  • MWU 66
  • SMZ 5,117
  • BOZ 6,150
  • RRU 29

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 13-15 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Crude and dollar lower. Stock market, silver, and gold higher.

 

Nikkei up .46%

Hang Seng up .9% (highest close since Nov 2010)

Shanghai Index up 2.4% (highest since December)

 

China grain markets – beans up 33, corn up 5, meal up 45, palm oil down 46, and bean oil up 14

 

Malaysian palm oil markets is closed today and tomorrow for the end of Ramadan holiday.

 

Hearing China bought 8-10 US new crop bean cargoes on Friday for Oct – Dec shipment on top of the 360,000 tons the USDA announced Friday morning.

 

Taiwan seeks 84,800 tons of US milling wheat for Sept-Oct shipment

 

Taiwan MFIG seeks 60,000 tons of US or South American corn for Sept-Oct shipment

 

Iraq seeks 10,000+ sunflower oil any origin except for China.

 

Philippines President said the Philippines may import as additional 500,000 tons of rice on top of the 1.7 MMT to cover damage to domestic crops due to Typhoons.

 

Argentina looks set to default on its debt for the second time in 12 years on Thursday as negotiations with “holdout” investors seemingly go nowhere and neither side shows signs of blinking first, though a last minute deal cannot be discounted – Reuters.

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2014 wheat crop at 57.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 56.3 MMT

 

Analysts estimated that Iran private grain buyers have bought 1.5 MMT of animal feed since March.

 

Grain.gov.cn estimated China’s 2014 corn crop at 223.0 MMT up 2.1% from a year ago

 

Analysts are expecting good demand for US soybeans after large break in prices.

 

Some analysts said the corn market has priced in record US corn crop.

 

Analysts ANZ said grains are oversold

 

16 rice receipts were canceled Friday afternoon. 342 rice receipts remain open.

 

Doane’s eastern leg of the Midwest crop tour started on Sunday and will end tomorrow.

 

Inaugural Canadian crop tour starts today and ends on Thursday.

 

Midwest forecast – limited rainfall next 7-10 days. Temps are normal to below normal. – Some analysts are saying Midwest forecast is nonthreatening. Others are saying there is some concerns about the dry weather.

 

Favorable Canadian Prairies forecast

 

Favorable Northern Plains forecast.

 

Central and Southern Plains was hot and dry last week, may have damaged some of the pollinating corn . This week’s forecast calls for normal to below normal temps with good rains and thunderstorms.

 

Macquarie analysts said east US corn belt conditions are about as good as it gets and good conditions in the western US corn belt also.

 

Dry weather in northern Australia , may hurt wheat production .

 

On Friday August options expired

  • There were 10 out of the money Aug bean 1210 puts exercised. August futures settled at 1212 ¼ on Friday
  • There were 130 out of the money Aug meal 400 calls exercised. Aug futures settled at 398.00 on Friday
  • There were 60 in the money Aug crush 60 calls abandoned . Aug crush settled at 60.25 on Friday

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,379,355 open, up 8,202
  • Total beans 637,845 open, down 5,994
  • Total meal 318,279 open, up 2,037
  • Total bean oil 336,435 open, up 3,681
  • Total wheat 428,980 open, up 2,996
  • Total KC wheat 143,125 open, up 456.

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting
    • Corn conditions 1% lower to 1% higher than a week ago. A week ago corn was rated 76% good to excellent
    • Bean conditions 1% lower to 1% higher from a week ago . A week ago beans were rated 73% good to excellent
    • Spring wheat conditions 1% lower to 1% higher than a week ago. A week ago spring wheat was rated 70% good to excellent.
  • FOMC two day policy meeting starts on tomorrow.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • Fed announcement on Wednesday at about 1 pm CST
  • Position day for August futures is Wednesday. Traders should be out of their long bean, meal, and or bean oil positions or risk delivery.  Open interest in August futures as of Friday’s close
    • Aug beans 35,400 open, down 7,153
    • Aug meal 27,605 open, down 2,100
    • Aug bean oil 25,723 open, down 3,395
  • Month end is Thursday.
  • Surveyor Intertek Agri Services will estimate July Malaysian palm oil exports on Thursday
  • Estimates from the Inaugural Canadian crop tour (spring wheat, durum wheat, and canola) are expected Thursday afternoon.
  • First notice day for August futures is Thursday. Early expectations for delivery are
    • Beans 0, 0 receipts are registered as of Friday afternoon
    • Meal 0, 0 receipts are registered as of Friday afternoon
    • Bean oil 300-700, 7,594 receipts are registered as of Friday afternoon.
  • Thursday night/Friday morning China’s HSBC July final mfg PMI comes out
  • On Friday Germany, Eurozone, France, and Italy July final mfg PMI comes out
  • US July unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Surveyor SGS will estimate July Malaysian palm oil exports on Aug 4th (report delayed)
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE