News From The Grain Floor

He was gifted with the sly, sharp instinct for self-preservation that passes for wisdom among the rich.”

Evelyn Waugh

 

USDA announced 360,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 delivery

 

USDA announced 134,700 tons of US meal sold to Mexico for ‘14/15 delivery

 

USDA announced 269,084 tons of US corn sold to Mexico. 23,368 tons old crop and 245,716 tons for new crop

 

August options expire today at 115 pm CST.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 10 ¾ at 1074
  • CZ down 3 at 366 ½
  • WU unchanged at 528 ¾
  • KC WU up a ½ at 621
  • MWU down ¾ at 619
  • SMZ down 2.50 at 347.50
  • BOZ down 25 at 3610
  • RRU down 3 at 1305.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,283
  • CZ 11,053
  • WU 4,264
  • KC WU 497
  • MWU 119
  • SMZ 4,567
  • BOZ 6,151
  • RRU 35

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 9-12 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat steady lower
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal 2-3 lower
  • Bean oil 20-30 lower
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Crude and stock market lower. Dollar , gold , and silver higher.

 

Nikkei up 1.13%

Hang Seng up .3%

Shanghai Index up 1.0%

 

Concerns about tensions in Ukraine and Russia continue.

 

China grain closings = beans down 6, corn up 4, meal up 1, palm oil up 24, and bean oil down 2

 

Chinese crush margins are negative again

 

Malaysian palm oil down 16.

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s July 1-25th palm oil exports at 1,078,253 tons down 1.6% from a month ago

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s July 1-25th palm oil exports at 1,165,306 tons up 3.4% from a month ago

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Association said palm oil output is up more than 16% between July 1-20th.

 

Taiwan canceled tender for 80,900 tons of US milling wheat for Sept-Oct shipment due to high prices.

 

Analysts said some wheat importers are delaying purchases hoping for prices to fall further.

 

Reports that analysts are expecting US 2014 corn yield at 170-175 BPA

 

Some analyst are estimating US 2014 corn crop at 14.75-15.0 BB.

 

Reports that analysts are expecting US 2014 bean yield at 44-47 BPA.

 

Reports yesterday – China will require imports of US distillers’ dried grains (DDGs) to be certified as free of an unapproved GM strain MIR-162. –Reuters

 

The CEO of the US Grains Council said “China is asking for something that cannot be done. This certificate that they are asking for does not exist” -Reuters

 

China customs data showed China exported 1.36 MMT of soymeal in the first half of 2014 up 50% from a year ago . Japan , South Korea, Vietnam , Indonesia, and Malaysia were the main buyers of Chinese soymeal.

 

Analysts expect Chinese meal exports to decline in the second half of 2014.

 

Ukraine’s Ag Min said Ukraine could lose 500,000 – 550,000 tons of grain due to war .

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of July 24th Ukraine has harvested 20.5 MMT of grain

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 1.3 MMT of grain between July 1-23rd.

 

Ukraine exported 32.3 MMT of grain in the ‘13/14 season.

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentine crop progress report

  • Wheat planting is 87.8% complete vs. 80% a week ago and vs. 92.7% a year ago
  • Estimated wheat planting area at 4.2 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn harvest is 72.4% complete vs. 65.4% a week ago and vs. 92.4% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 Corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Bean harvest is nearly complete with 99.5% of the crop harvested vs. 99.2% from a week ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 55.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

FranceAgriMer weekly France crop report

  • As of July 21st 44% of the soft wheat crop had been harvested vs. 39% a week earlier and vs. 11% a year ago
  • As of July 21st 69% of the durum wheat crop had been harvested vs. 50% a week earlier and vs. 25% a year ago
  • As of July 21st 15% of the spring barley crop had been harvested vs. 1% a week earlier
  • As of July 21st winter barley harvest was virtually complete vs. 84% a year ago

 

ABN AMRO 2014 price forecasts

  • Wheat average price forecasted at $5.50
  • Corn average price forecasted at $4.00
  • Soybean average price forecasted at $12.00

 

Vietnam government said Vietnam exported 3.86 MMT of rice between Jan – July down 8% from a year ago .

 

197 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon.

  • 196 out of Cargill Ackley IA
  • 1 out of Bunge Decatur IN

 

Total bean oil receipts remaining is 7,594

 

16 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon .

 

Rains are falling this morning across the northwest Midwest where they were needed

 

Midwest weekend weather forecast

  • Scattered showers in central and eastern areas
  • Average to above average temps

 

Dry weather in forecast Monday – Wednesday with below normal temps for the Midwest

 

Favorable weather in Canadian Prairies warm temps and scattered showers in forecast

 

Doane’s western leg of their Midwest crop tour ended yesterday.

  • Estimated IA bean yield at 50-53 BPA vs. 44.5 BPA a year ago
  • Estimated western IA corn yield at 200 BPA
  • Estimated west central IA corn yields at 193-200 BPA

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,371,273 open, up 11,567
  • Total beans 643,843 open, down 6,877
  • Total meal 316,463 open, down 1,010
  • Total bean oil 332,750 open, up 1,490
  • Total wheat 426,528 open, up 922
  • Total KC wheat 142,996 open, up 140

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Doane’s eastern leg of the Midwest crop tour starts on Sunday and end Tuesday
  • Malaysian palm oil markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for the end of Ramadan.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST . Early expectations are
    • Corn conditions unchanged from a week ago at 76% good to excellent
    • Bean conditions unchanged from a week ago at 73% good to excellent
    • Spring wheat conditions unchanged from a week ago at 70% good to excellent
  • FOMC two day policy meeting starts on Tuesday. Fed announcement on Wednesday at about 1 pm CST
  • Position day for August futures is Wednesday
  • Surveyor Intertek Agri Services will estimate July Malaysian palm oil exports on Thursday
  • First notice day for August futures is Thursday
  • Month end is Thursday
  • US July unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Surveyor SGS will estimate July Malaysian palm oil exports on Aug 4th (report delayed)
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE