News From The Grain Floor

“The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”

P.G. Wodehouse

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 22 ½ at 1099
  • CZ up 5 at 375 6/4
  • WU up 9 at 539 ¾
  • KC WU up 9 ¼ at 632 ¾
  • MWU up 9 ¼ at 630 ¼
  • SMZ  up 7.30 at 354.60
  • BOZ up 30 at 3665
  • RRU up 1.50 at 1313.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 37,402
  • CZ 23,331
  • WU 12,103
  • KC WU 2,030
  • MWU 391
  • SMZ 8,269
  • BOZ 8,452
  • RRU 19

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 20-25 higher
  • Corn 4-6 higher
  • Wheat 8-11 higher
  • KC wheat 8-11 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 8-11 higher
  • Meal 6.50-7.50 higher
  • Bean oil 25-35 higher
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Stock market higher . Crude, gold, silver, and dollar lower

 

Nikkei down .29%

Hang Seng up .70%

Shanghai Index up 1.25%

 

Uncertainty in the Ukraine

 

July Flash mfg PMIs

  • China HSBC at 52.0 expecting 51.0 vs. June final of 50.7
  • Japan at 50.8 vs. June final of 51.5
  • France at 47.6 (7 month low) expecting 48.1 and vs. June final of 48.2
  • German at 52.9 expecting 52.0 and vs. June final of 52.0
  • Eurozone at 51.9 expecting 51.7 and vs. June final of 51.8

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -19K to 284,000 expecting 308,000.

 

China grain closings = beans down 9, corn down 3, meal up 37, palm oil up 32, bean oil up 20

 

Palm oil up 26

 

Indonesia to keep palm oil export taxes unchanged in August at 10.5%

 

South Korea KFA bought 32,000 feed wheat for Dec shipment

 

South Korea Daehan bought 27,400 tons of US wheat for Dec shipment

 

South Korea Mills bought 30,700 tons of US wheat for Dec-Jan shipment

 

South Korea CJ canceled tender for 27,400 tons of US wheat for Dec shipment due to high prices

 

Japan bought 94,586 tons of food wheat for September shipment. Breakdown:

  • 37,689 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 25,787 tons of Canadian western spring wheat
  • 31,110 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Today is the last day of the western leg of the Doane’s Midwest crop tour. The eastern leg of the tour starts on Sunday and ends Tuesday.

 

Doane’s tour estimated IA soybean yield at 50+ BPA

 

Argentina customs officials may strike today and or tomorrow
Technically oversold.

 

Less than ideal rainfall in southwest and northwest Iowa

 

Rains are needed in MN, SD, IN, and MO

 

Some reports say there is a risk of drier forecast in August

 

12 corn receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Elburn Coop Inc. There are a total of 7 corn receipts remaining

 

11 soybean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of CGB Hennepin IL . There are no bean receipts remaining

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘14/15 443,200 tons ‘15/16 – 100 tons (expecting 350,000-550,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘13/14 291,500 tons ‘14/15 1.14 MMT (expecting old crop 300-500,000 tons ; new crop 400-600,000 tons )
  • Beans ‘13/14 226,700 ‘14/15 2.45 MMT (expecting old crop 150-250,000 tons ; new crop 1.2 – 1.45 MMT)
  • Meal ‘13/14 93,900 tons ‘14/15 348,900  (expecting old crop 50-150,000 tons ; new crop 150,000-250,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 2,900  (expecting 0-30,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 443,200 MT for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were primarily for Japan (92,800 MT), Nigeria (71,300 MT), Singapore (53,500 MT, including 25,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and 5,500 MT switched from Vietnam), Brazil (47,300 MT, including 6,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Vietnam (40,300 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Mexico (36,900 MT). Decreases were reported for the Philippines (45,000 MT), unknown destinations (30,100 MT) and Panama (7,000 MT). Exports of 551,700 MT were primarily to Brazil (191,900 MT), Indonesia (49,700 MT), Taiwan (41,700 MT), Mexico (41,200 MT), Japan (37,300 MT), and Singapore (33,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 291,500 MT for 2013/2014 were down 49 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (216,200 MT, including 112,300 MT switched from unknown destinations, 50,000 MT switched from China, and decreases of 1,100 MT), Spain (70,000 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (67,800 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,400 MT), the Netherlands (52,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (50,200 MT), and Canada (25,600 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (220,100 MT) and China (50,000 MT). Net sales of 1,143,400 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (644,000 MT), Japan (268,400 MT), and Costa Rica (43,800 MT). Exports of 992,500 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (262,100 MT), South Korea (255,800 MT), Mexico (139,500 MT), Egypt (133,200 MT), Spain (70,000 MT), and Costa Rica (32,600 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 226,700 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (158,800 MT)Indonesia (103,600 MT, including 86,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), Vietnam (17,900 MT), Taiwan (12,400 MT), and Japan (10,300 MT, including 1,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (87,400 MT) and Mexico (8,500 MT). Net sales of 2,451,100 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (1,283,500 MT), unknown destinations (949,600 MT), and Bangladesh (112,000 MT). Exports of 162,700 MT were up 72 percent from the previous week and 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Indonesia (95,300 MT), Japan (32,000 MT), and Mexico (29,900 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 93,900 MT for 2013/2014 were up 12 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (26,200 MT), Honduras (12,400 MT, including 9,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (10,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (8,600 MT), unknown destinations (7,300 MT), and Japan (6,300 MT, including 3,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Net sales of 348,900 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (232,600 MT), Egypt (27,000 MT), and Honduras (20,000 MT). Exports of 98,400 MT were down 42 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (32,400 MT), Canada (17,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (15,600 MT), Honduras (10,100 MT), and Jamaica (5,000 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 2,900 MT for 2013/2014 were down 65 percent from the previous week and 72 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (2,100 MT), Nicaragua (600 MT), and Australia (200 MT). Exports of 41,800 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (40,000 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Nicaragua (600 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,359,707 open, up 18,261
  • Total beans 650,849 open, up 1,879
  • Total meal 317,738 open, up 5,476
  • Total bean oil 331,352 open, down 3,953
  • Total wheat 425,734 open, up 5,006
  • Total KC wheat 142,927 open, up 62

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +96 BCF
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s July 1-25th palm oil exports tomorrow.
  • Last trading day for Aug options is tomorrow. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Malaysian palm oil markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for the end of Ramadan.
  • Position day for August futures is July 30th
  • First notice day for August futures is July 31st
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE