News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn’t feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.

–          Neil Armstrong

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for September shipment. Should have results sometime this morning.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 2 ¾ at 1060 ½
  • CZ up ¾ at 369
  • WU up 2 at 526 ½
  • KC WU up ¾ at 622
  • MWU up 1 ¼ at 620
  • SMZ up 1.20 at 342.90
  • BOZ up 3 at 3606
  • RRU down .50 at 1316

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,417
  • CZ 7,860
  • WU 6,733
  • KC WU 1,245
  • MWU 211
  • SMZ 6,078
  • BOZ 7,436
  • RRU 13

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat steady better
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 5 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Dollar down. Stock market, gold, silver, and crude oil higher .

 

Nikkei down .10%

Hang Seng up .79%

Shanghai Index up .14%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 555,000 BBLS expecting a draw of 2.8 MB
  • Gas a build of 3.6 MB expecting a build of 1.3 MB
  • Gas a build of 2.5 MB expecting a build of 2.1 MB

 

China grain closings = beans up 25, corn down 1, meal down 22, palm oil down 36, and bean oil down 18.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 25

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week July 12-18 total crush volume at 1,457,700 tons up 10.23% from a week ago
  • For the week July 12-18 total crush capacity utilization at 50.37% up 4.67% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013-July 18, 2014) crush volume at 56,369,088 tons up 18.82% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1-July 18) crush volume at 37,820,291 tons up 16.92% from a year ago
  • As of July 18th total imported bean stocks at 5.9808 MMT vs. 6.0596 MMT a week ago and down 6.97% from a year ago
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.3235 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.059 MMT
  • Estimated August bean imports at 6.1 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 4.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.8 MMT

 

China sold 15.5% of beans at yesterday’s auction. They sold 54,945 tons out of the 354,470 tons they offered.

 

Thailand bought US soymeal for April shipment

 

Pakistan bought 35,000 tons of Black Sea origin sunflower seed for October shipment

 

Iran bought 140,000 tons of optional origin feed barley for August –Sept shipment

 

Philippines seeks 500,00 tons of rice from Vietnam

 

Maldives seek 9,000 tons of optional origin rice

 

Japan received no offers in SBS tender for 120,000 feed wheat and 200,000 feed barley for Oct shipment

 

Japan is seeking 120,000 feed wheat and 200,000 feed barley for Oct shipment via SBS tender

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 corn yield at 167.0 BPA unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 bean yield at 45.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of yesterday Ukraine has harvested 19.1 MMT of grain on 5.9 MH with an average yield of 3.2 TPH. A year ago Ukraine harvested 22.9 MMT of gran of 7.8 MH with an average yield of 2.95 TPH

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 8.7 MMT of grain in ‘13/14 up 32% from a year ago

 

Kazakhstan exported 3.0 MMT of grain between Jan 1st – July 20th 2014

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso, Brazil safrinha corn (second corn crop) ‘13/14 area at 3.2 MH vs. previous estimate of 3.0 MH

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso’s total ‘13/14 corn crop at 17.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 15.0 MMT

 

IMEA said Mato Grosso farmers have sold 25-28% of their ‘13/14 corn crop.

 

IMEA said domestic corn use in Mato Grosso is 3.0 MMT and they export the rest.

 

IMEA said Mato Grosso has harvested about 33% of their second corn crop

 

US has exported about 2.0 MMT of grain since last week due to a drop in prices. –Reuters

 

Farmer in central Illinois estimated his corn yield at 250.0 BPA vs. average of 195-200 BPA.

 

Rapeseed yields in north-east France and Britain are disappointing .

 

Heavy rains in forecast for Germany , may damage rapeseed crops.

 

Mantioba government said in their weekly report that favorable warm weather with little rainfall has helped crops in Manitoba recover.

 

Second day of the Doane’s crop tour estimated IL corn yield at a record high of 193 BPA. There was also a lot of talk about double ear corn.

 

Today is the third day of the Doane’s 31st annual crop tour. The western leg of the tour ends tomorrow. The eastern leg out the tour will start on Sunday and end Tuesday.

 

A spring wheat crop tour this week estimated North Dakota corn yield at 64.6 BPA vs. 48 BPA a year ago and vs. 43.35 BPA five year average. Scouts on the tour also said they have seen several fields not planted because they are too wet.

 

Some analysts believe the USDA will estimate US 2014 corn yield at 167-168 BPA in the August report, even though some analysts are estimating 2014 corn yield at 170+ BPA

 

Some analysts expecting USDA to estimated US 2014 bean yield at 45-46 BPA in the August report.

 

7 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL . 11 bean receipts remain open.

 

10 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Zeeland Farm Services Portage, IN . 7,791 bean oil receipts remain open.

 

16 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon. 608 rice receipts remain open.

 

Technically oversold.

 

Options players from yesterday

 

Corn:

ICAP bot 2000 V 350-330 put spreads

ICAP sold 1000 Z 390 calls/350 put strangles

ICAP sold 500 Z 390 calls/360 put strangles

ICAP bot 2000 U 420 calls

ICAP bot 1000 V 345-325 put spreads

FCS bot 2000 Z 440 calls/sold 1000 Z 370 calls

RJO bot 1000 V 340 puts

ABN bot 1000 U 320 puts/sold 1000 U 420 calls

ABN sold 500 Z 370-450 call spreads/bot 225 CZ

ADM sold 500 Z 380 calls

 

Beans:

FI bot 2500 short dated U 1060-1000 put spreads

Bache bot 1000 X 1180 calls/sold 500 X 1020 puts

FCS bot 400 X 1040 puts/sold 800 X 980 puts

Rand bot 400 X 10080 puts/bot 192 SX

Macquarie sold 400 X 1060 puts/sold 160 SX

RJO bot 400 X 1160 calls/sold 96 SX

 

Wheat:

Rosenthal sold 1500 Z 500 puts

 

Oil:

JPM sold 1500 Z 37 ½-35 put spreads

RJO bot 300 Z 43 ½ calls

New Edge bot 350 U 36 ½ calls/sold 350 Z 35 puts

RJO sold 550 Z 38-36 put spreads

 

Meal:

RJO sold 350 week 3 355 puts

New Edge sold 200 Z 310 puts/bot 200 Z 430 calls

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn sold 4K
  • Beans sold 5K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 1,500

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,341,565 open, up 6,904
  • Total beans 648,911 open, up 4,646
  • Total meal 312,615 open, up 820
  • Total bean oil 335,334 open, up 427
  • Total wheat 420,744 open, up 5,149
  • Total KC wheat 142,877 open, down 126

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.9 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.0 MB
    • Distillates a build of 2.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Argentina customs officials may strike Thursday and Friday
  • HSBC China, Eurozone, Germany, and France flash mfg PMIs come out tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s July 1-25th palm oil exports on Friday.
  • Last trading day for Aug options is Friday. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Malaysian palm oil markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for the end of Ramadan.
  • Position day for August futures is July 30th
  • First notice day for August futures is July 31st
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE