News From The Grain Floor

Mystery creates wonder and wonder is the basis of man’s desire to understand.

  • Neil Armstrong

 

USDA announced 180,000 new crop US meal sold to Vietnam

 

USDA announced 225,000 new crop US meal sold to unknown

 

USDA announced 20,000 new crop US bean oil sold to unknown

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 4 at 1075 ½
  • CZ up 1 ½ at 373 ½
  • WU up 4 ½ at 534 ½
  • KC WU up 6 ¾ at 634 ¾
  • MWU up 4 ¾ at 628
  • SMZ up 1.20 at 348.00
  • BOZ up 18 at 3644
  • RRU up 4 at 1302

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 11,960
  • CZ 8,439
  • WU 4,867
  • KC WU 805
  • MWU 103
  • SMZ 3,406
  • BOZ 4,400
  • RRU 48

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 5-7 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Gold and silver lower. Dollar, crude, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up .82%

Hang Seng up 1.63%

Shanghai Index up 1.00%

 

China grain closings = beans up 14, corn up 9, meal down 8, pam oil down 56, and bean oil down 34

 

Malaysian palm oil down 16 (10 month low).

 

Indonesian Palm Oil Association estimated Indonesia’s 2014 palm oil exports at 19-20 MMT vs. 21.0 MMT in 2013

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 9.75 MMT of palm oil in the first half of 2014 vs. 11.0 MMT in the first half of 2013

 

Malaysian palm oil board said Malaysia exported 8.1 MMT of palm oil in the first half of 2014 vs. 8.8 MMT in the first half of 2013.

 

Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association seeks 80,900 tons of US milling wheat for Sept-Oct shipment.

 

Japan seeks 94,586 tons of food wheat for September shipment. Breakdown:

  • 37,689 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 25,787 tons of Canadian western spring wheat
  • 31,110 tons of Australian white wheat

 

China bought 107,871 tons of US sorghum off the Gulf last week.

 

Oil World ‘14/15 estimates

  • Global oilseed production estimated at 505.0 MMT vs. 488.4 MMT in ‘13/14
    • Global soybean production estimated at 305.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 301.9 MMT and vs. 284.6 MMT in ‘13/14
    • Global rapeseed production estimated at 68.1 MMT vs. 69.7 MMT in ‘13/14
    • Global sunseed production estimated at 40.4 MMT vs. 42.1 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Total global oilseed use estimated at 488.9 MMT vs. 474.0 MMT in ‘13/14
    • Total global soybean use estimated at 288.1 MMT vs. 273.4 MMT in ‘13/14
    • Total global rapeseed use estimated at 69.0 MMT vs. 66.5 MMT in ‘13/14
    • Total global sunseed use estimated at 40.6 MMT vs. 41.6 MMT in ‘13/14
    • Total global other oilseed use estimated at 91.2 MMT vs. 92.5 MMT in ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 total global oilseed ending stocks estimated at 102.0 MMT vs. 85.9 MMT in ‘13/14
    • Global soybean ending stocks estimated at 88.4 MMT vs. 70.9 MMT a year ago
  • US soybean crop estimated at 101.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 98.5 MMT and vs. 91.4 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Brazil bean crop estimated at 90.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.5 MMT and vs. 81.5 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Argentine bean crop estimated at 56.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 54.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Paraguay bean crop estimated at 9.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.8 MMT and vs. 9.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • China bean crop estimated at 11.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 12.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • India bean crop estimated at 11.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 8.8 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Total global soybean crush estimated at 251.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 248.0 MMT and vs. 237.5 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Global soybean ending stocks as of August 31st 2015 estimated at 88.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 89.2 MMT and vs. 70.9 MMT a year ago
    • US bean ending stocks estimated at 9.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.6 MMT and vs. 3.4 MMT a year ago
    • Brazil bean ending stocks estimated at 23.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.0 MMT and vs. 20.0 MMT a year ago
    • Argentine bean ending stocks estimated at 32.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 33.4 MMT and vs. 27.8 MMT a year ago

 

US farmers remained reluctant to sell crops.

 

Argentina’s Rosario port workers ended strike and went back to work yesterday.

 

Argentina truckers did not strike yesterday as planned.

 

Another port workers union in Argentina has threatened to go on strike today

 

Argentina customs officials could strike on Thursday and Friday.

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of July 21st Russia has harvested 31.7 MMT of grain on 9.1 MH with an average yield of 3.48 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 31.4 MMT of grain on 10.7 MH with an average yield of 2.92 TPH

 

Kazakhstan’s Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 219,400 tons of grain between July 1-20th vs. 374,100 tons a year ago

 

Today is the second day of the Doane’s 31st annual crop tour. The western route (Western IL, IA, Southern Minnesota, East Nebraska , and Eastern Missouri) of the tour ends Thursday . Eastern route (the rest of IL, IN , and western OH) begins Sunday and ends Tuesday.

 

Some more reports from the first day of the Doane’s crop tour

  • Impressed early in tour with potential sizes of ears. Rows around always 16 or greater
  • Heading into NW Illinois & EC Iowa this afternoon. Soy plants filling rows everywhere. Most years some dirt to see.
  • In 8 inch row width field. Heavily podding NW Illinois
  • NW Illinois. 32k population field. Silking excellent stand. Conservative est. 190s. Higher probable

 

Some analysts are estimating US 2014 corn yield at 170.0+ BPA vs. USDA estimate of 165.3 BPA.

 

Commerzbank analyst said “We think the favorable US crop outlook should be priced in by now. Corn prices should not go down further, at least not on a lasting basis.” – Reuters

 

Commerzbank analysts said “We think even the soybeans downtrend is more or less done.” – Reuters

 

12 corn receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Elburn Coop Inc. Morris IL . Total corn receipts remaining are 19.

 

44 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Creve Coeur IL . Total bean receipts remaining are 18.

 

315 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon. Total rice receipts are now at 624.

 

331 rice deliveries with the date at 6/27/14

 

Ideal growing conditions in Midwest continue.

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday.

 

Corn

  • Condition 76% good to excellent (best in 10 years) unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged to 2% higher than a week ago) vs. 63% a year ago.
    • IL 81% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • IN 76% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • IA 77% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • MI 81% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • MN 64% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • OH 75% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • NE 76% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • Silking 56% vs. 34% a week ago and vs. 55% five year average.

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 73% good to excellent (best in 20 years) up 1% from a week ago (expecting unchanged to 2% higher than a week ago) vs. 64% a year ago
    • IL 77% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago
    • IN 72% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago
    • IA 74% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago
    • MI 69% good to excellent down 3% from a week ago
    • MN 64% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago
    • OH 69% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • ND 78% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • Blooming 60% vs. 41% a week ago and vs. 56% five year average
  • Setting pods 19% vs. 7% a week ago and vs. 17% five year average

 

Spring Wheat

  • Condition 70% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (expecting 1% lower to 1% higher than a week ago) vs. 68% a year ago
  • Headed 84% vs. 69% a week ago and vs. 85% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Harvested 75% complete (expecting around 80% complete) vs. 69% a week ago and vs. 75% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 69% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 72% a year ago
  • Headed 32% vs. 24% a week ago and vs. 33% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 52% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 44% a year ago
  • Squaring 85% vs. 70% a week ago and vs. 82% five year average
  • Setting bolls 38% vs. 24% a week ago and vs. 37% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,335,858 open, up 8,480
  • Total beans 644,251 open, up 892
  • Total meal 311,876 open, up 682
  • Total bean oil 334,977 open, up 1,879
  • Total wheat 415,778 open, up 1,295
  • Total KC wheat 143,045 open, up 62

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • On Thursday China, Eurozone, Germany, and France flash mfg PMIs come out
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s July 1-25th palm oil exports on Friday.
  • Last trading day for Aug options is Friday. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Malaysian palm oil markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for the end of Ramadan.
  • Position day for August futures is July 30th
  • First notice day for August futures is July 31st

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME