News From The Grain Floor

“I smell the pine tar, man. Smell the pine tar, because I like it. Smell that, and it gets you locked in.”

–          Trevor Plouffe

 

USDA announced 708,000 tons of new crop US beans sold to China.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down ¾ at 1186 ½
  • CZ down 2 ½ at 384 ½
  • WU down 1 at 537
  • KC WU up ¾ at 638
  • MWU down a ¼ at 627 ¾
  • SMZ down 2.40 at 354.40
  • BOZ up 5 at 3704
  • RRU up 3.50 at 1302.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,898
  • CZ 14,416
  • WU 3,931
  • KC WU 367
  • MWU 70
  • SMZ 5,918
  • BOZ 3,704
  • RRU 20

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady lower
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Stock market lower. Gold, silver, and crude higher.

 

Nikkei down .06%

Hang Seng down .01%

Shanghai Index down .57%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at

 

China grain closings = beans down 6, corn up 18, meal up 15, palm oil up 8, and bean oil up 12.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 17.

 

Hearing China bought 1 US bean cargo for Dec shipment yesterday.

 

South Korea MFG bought 110,000 -120,000 tons of US or South American soymeal for Dec-Jan shipment .

 

South Korea NOFI bought 55,000 tons of meal from South America for Nov shipment.

 

Japan bought 112,709 tons of food wheat for Aug –Sept shipment. Breakdown

  • 43,284 tons of US Western white wheat
  • 19,830 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 23,060 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 26,535 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Turkey bought 235,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat and bought 200,000 tons of feed barley for Aug-Oct shipment.

 

Venezuela is seeking corn.

 

CWG estimated US 2014 corn yield at 171.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 165.3 BPA

 

CWG estimated US 2014 corn crop at 14.3 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.86 BB.

 

Allendale estimated US 2014 corn yield at 167.8 BPA

 

KazAgro estimated Kazakhstan 2014 grain crop at 18.0 MMT vs. 18.2 MMT in 2013

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU28 ‘14/15 soft wheat crop at 140.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 139.50 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU28 ‘14/15 corn crop at 66.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 65.9 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU28 ‘14/15 barley crop at 56.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.5 MMT

 

Better than expected HRW yields in Nebraska and parts of Colorado. 50-70+ BPA yields being reported. USDA estimated Nebraska HRW wheat yield at 40.0 BPA .

 

South Korea to scrap rice import caps from the start of 2015.

 

Second day of Argentina port workers strike

 

Slow US farmer selling.

 

Indian monsoon rains were 15% below average in the past week.

 

European farmers have only sold 25% of their 2014 wheat crop average for this time of year is 40% sold.

 

Ideal US Midwest weather continues. Seasonal temps. Hot and dry spots in the western US.

 

Warmer temps forecasted for Canadian Prairies in the 6-10 day.

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat –  ‘14/15 320,700 (expecting 400-500,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 573,700 ‘14/15 495,000 (expecting old crop 250-350,000 tons; new crop 350-450,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘13/14 37,700 ‘14/15 561,000 (expecting old crop -50,000 to +75,000 tons; new crop 500-700,000 tons)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 83,800 ‘14/15 89,600 (expecting old crop 20-90,000 tons; new crop 25-150,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 8,300 (expecting 0-30,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 320,700 MT for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were primarily for Japan (115,100 MT, including 26,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (60,000 MT), Thailand (55,900 MT), Nigeria (49,400 MT, including 56,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 12,300 MT), the Dominican Republic (27,200 MT), and Trinidad (20,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (38,100 MT) Indonesia (8,000 MT), and Peru (4,300 MT). Exports of 417,400 MT were primarily to Nigeria (84,400 MT), Mexico (64,100 MT), Brazil (59,200 MT), Japan (58,200 MT), Thailand (54,100 MT), and Peru (36,700 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 573,700 MT for 2013/2014 were up 58 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (246,900 MT, including 90,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 26,700 MT), Colombia (94,300 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (42,900 MT), the Philippines (39,900 MT), Mexico (37,700 MT), and Morocco (30,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (51,400 MT). Net sales of 495,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (198,900 MT), Japan (150,400 MT), and Mexico (108,200 MT). Exports of 907,900 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (276,300 MT), Mexico (231,200 MT), South Korea (116,400 MT), Spain (64,900 MT), Colombia (43,700 MT), Peru (32,400 MT), and Guatemala (29,300 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 37,700 MT for 2013/2014 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Taiwan (44,000 MT), China (6,400 MT), Thailand (5,600 MT), Indonesia (5,500 MT), and Vietnam (5,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (28,500 MT) and Mexico (5,200 MT). Net sales of 561,000 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (365,000 MT) and unknown destinations (149,500 MT). Decreases were reported for Japan (16,800 MT). Exports of 94,800 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (42,000 MT), Japan (28,000 MT), Indonesia (19,500 MT), and Taiwan (2,100 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 83,800 MT for 2013/2014 were up 72 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Morocco (20,000 MT), Mexico (19,900 MT), Canada (17,500 MT), Guatemala (13,500 MT, including 13,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), El Salvador (9,600 MT, including 8,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), and Venezuela (9,000 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (35,400 MT). Net sales of 89,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (55,700 MT), Egypt (27,000 MT), and Canada (4,600 MT). Exports of 169,900 MT were up 88 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (47,500 MT), Mexico (32,700 MT), Venezuela (24,000 MT), Canada (23,100 MT), and Guatemala (13,400 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 8,300 MT for 2013/2014 were down 35 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (5,400 MT), Nicaragua (1,600 MT), Trinidad (800 MT), Canada (300 MT), and Singapore (100 MT). Exports of 16,800 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (12,600 MT), Mexico (2,200 MT), Nicaragua (1,600 MT), Trinidad (200 MT), and Canada (200 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,313,166 open, down 15,480
  • Total beans 634,107 open, up 7,932
  • Total meal 312,412 open, up 3,075
  • Total bean oil 332,709 open, up 5,924
  • Total wheat 409,711 open, up 4,277
  • Total KC wheat 141,648 open, up 460

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST, expecting +100 BCF.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Monday with their Malaysian July 1-20th palm oil export estimates.
  • Argentine truckers plan to strike on July 21st .
  • Last trading day for Aug options is Friday July 25th. Options expire at 115 pm CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE