News From The Grain Floor

All the world’s a stage and most of us are desperately unrehearsed.”

Seán O’Casey

 

USDA announced 120,000 US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment.

 

NOPA’s June crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. Expecting,

  • Crush – average estimate 119.486 MB , range of estimates are 116.125- 125.0 MB . May crush was 128.824 MB and June 2013 crush was 119.05 MB
  • Bean oil stocks – average estimate 1.895 billion pounds (smallest since June 2005) , range of estimates are 1.840 B – 1.955 B. May bean oil stocks were 1.970 B and June 2013 crush was 2.3 billion lbs.
  • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In May meal exports were 465,301 tons and in June 2013 exports were 415,331 tons.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 5 ¾ at 1080 ½
  • CZ down 3 ½ at 384 ¾
  • WU down 2 ¾ at 535
  • KC WU down 2 at 644 ¼
  • MWU down a ¼ at 639
  • SMZ down 1.00 at 347.70
  • BOZ down 22 at 3688
  • RRU up 5.50 at 1295

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,280
  • CZ 7,899
  • WU 4,332
  • KC WU 472
  • MWU 113
  • SMZ 2,178
  • BOZ 3,810
  • RRU 43

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 4-6 higher

 

Gold , silver, and stock market higher. Crude lower

 

Nikkei up .63%

Hang Seng up .48%

Shanghai Index up .18%

 

China grain closings = beans up 22, corn down 8, meal up 28, palm oil down 30, and bean oil down 18.

 

Malaysia markets closed today for holiday.

 

Hearing China bought 1-2 US bean cargoes for Jan shipment yesterday.

 

China sold 17% or 59,692 tons of beans at today’s auction. They offered 352,740 tons.

 

Market talk/Reports said China bought up to 20 US bean cargoes for Nov-Jan shipment last week, bought 3+ new crop Argentine bean cargoes , and bought 12-15 Brazilian bean cargoes for March 2015 and  forward shipment.

 

Vietnam is in for meal.

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese weekly crush breakdown

  • For the week July 5 – 11th total crush volume at 1,322,400 tons up 1.21% from a week ago
  • For the week July 5 – 11th total crush capacity utilization at 45.70% up .55% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013-July 11, 2014) crush volume at 54,911,388 tons up 19.10% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1-July 11) crush volume at 36,362,591 tons up 17.24% from a year ago
  • As of July 11th total import soybean stocks at 6.0596 M tons up 537,000 tons from a week ago and up 12.39% from a year ago
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.059 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.243 MMT
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 6.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.5 MMT
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 3.8 MMT (first estimate made for October)

 

GAPKI said Indonesia exported 1.78 MMT of palm oil in June up 90,000 tons from May.

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India imported 883,679 tons of veg oil in June down 6.7% from a year ago

 

Analysts expect Brazil government to confirm corn auctions in August. Brazil may auction up to 5.0 MMT of corn vs. average of 2-3 MMT .

 

Russia Ag Min said as of July 14th Russia has harvested 1.79 MMT of grain on 5.1 MH with an average yield of 3.53 TPH. A year ago Russia had harvested 22.1 MMT of grain on 7.1 MH with an average yield of 3.10 TPH.

 

Ukraine grain harvest is underway.

 

Canadian Wheat Board estimated that 3.5- 4.0 million acres of all crops in Canada may have been lost due to flooding

 

CWG (Commodity Weather Group) said favorable weather conditions in US are expected to continue through at least the end of July

 

Indian monsoons have improved

 

Vietnam customs data showed Vietnam exported 3.26 MMT of rice in the first half of 2014 down 8.3% from a year ago

 

Vietnam customs data showed Vietnam exported 543,422 tons of rice in June down 19.1% from a month ago

 

15 new wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of The Andersons Maumee OH. There are a total of 159 wheat receipts registered

 

4 new corn receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of CGB Hennepin IL. There is a total of 10 corn receipts registered.

 

126 new bean receipts were registered yesterday afternoon. Breakdown:

  • 11 out of ADM Ottawa- N , IL
  • 11 out of ADM Spring Valley
  • 44 out of ADM Creve Coeur, IL
  • 22 out of ADM Hennepin, IL
  • 32 out of CGB Hennepin, IL
  • 6 out of CIRM Chicago, IL

 

There is a total of 136 soybean receipts registered

 

375 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon.

  • 300 out of Cargill Ackley, IA
  • 75 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga, SD

 

There is a total of 8,346 soybean oil receipts registered

 

57 new meal receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of Incobrasa Industries LTD Gilman, IL

 

There is a total of 57 meal receipts registered

 

36 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon. There is a total of 512 receipts registered.

 

Deliveries

  • Corn 9 with the date at 7/08/14
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 9
  • KC Wheat 39 with the date at 7/11/14
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 37
    • House ADM stopped 39
  • Chicago wheat 101 with the date current
    • House Term stopped 101
  • Rice 1 with the date at 6/05/14
  • Bean oil 334 with the date current
    • House Term issued 100
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 1
    • House ADM stopped 315
  • Soybeans 136 with the date at 7/11/14
    • House ADM issued 88
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 81
    • House Term stopped 44
  • Meal 57 with the date current
    • House ADM stopped 57
  • No Minneapolis wheat

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday.

 

Corn

  • Condition 76% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago (expecting 1% lower to 2% higher) and vs. 66% a year ago
  • Silking 34% vs. 15% a week ago and vs. 33% five year average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 72% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (expecting 1% lower to 2% higher)  and vs. 65% a year ago
  • Blooming 41% vs. 24% a week ago and vs. 37% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition 70% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (expecting 1% lower to 3% higher) and vs. 70% a year ago
  • Headed 69% vs. 47% a week ago and vs. 68% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Harvested 69% (expecting about 70% complete) vs. 57% a week ago and vs. 68% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 70% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 68% a year ago
  • Headed 24% vs. 17% a week ago and vs. 22% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 55% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • Squaring 70% vs. 53% a week ago and vs. 74% five year average
  • Setting bolls 24% vs. 12% a week ago and vs. 25% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,321,527 open, down 85
  • Total beans 625,254 open, up 4,346
  • Total meal 308,749 open, up 1,424
  • Total bean oil 327,177 open, up 2,331
  • Total wheat 400,640 open, up 1,934
  • Total KC wheat 139,542 open, down 40

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Argentine truckers plan to strike on July 21st
  • SGS and Intertek come out tomorrow with their Malaysian July 1-15th palm oil export estimates.
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Last trading day for Aug options is Friday July 25th. Options expire at 115 pm CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE