News From The Grain Floor

All great change in America begins at the dinner table.”

Ronald Reagan

 

USDA July supply and demand and production report comes out today at 11 am CST . See attachment for report recap table.

 

No USDA announcement this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 1 at 1094
  • CZ up 1 ½ at 394 ¼
  • WU unchanged at 548 ½
  • KC WU down 1 ¾ at 645 ½
  • MWU down 1 at 640
  • SMZ up 1.20 at 351.00
  • BOZ down 22 at 3738
  • RRU down 3 at 1343

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 9,930
  • CZ 12,825
  • WU 2,719
  • KC WU 585
  • MWU 138
  • SMZ 2,805
  • BOZ 3,212
  • RRU 11

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady – 2 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat 1-2 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Dollar higher . Stock market unchanged. Gold, silver, and crude lower as of 808 am CST

 

Nikkei down .35%

Hang Seng down .02%

Shanghai Index up .42%

 

China grain closings = beans down 4, corn up 16, meal down 36, palm down 8, bean oil down 12

 

Malaysian palm oil down 40 (9 month lows)

 

Market talk China bought 4 US new crop bean cargoes on Wednesday and bought 1-2 US new crop bean cargoes yesterday

 

Market talk US sold up to 60,000 tons of new crop meal of the PNW possibly to Thailand

 

Indonesia in for soymeal for Sept shipment

 

Vietnam in for soymeal for Nov shipment

 

Oil World said Brazil’s first half of 2014 bean crush was 18.5 MMT vs. 18.3 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World said Brazil’s first half of 2014 bean exports at 31.8 MMT vs. 26.1 MMT a year ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentine crop report

  • Wheat planting is 72.5% complete vs. 62.3% a week ago and vs. 82.9% a year ago
  • Wheat area estimated at 4.3 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn harvest is 58.4% complete vs. 51.6% from a week ago and vs. 89.4% a year ago
  • Corn crop is estimated at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Bean harvest is 98.5% complete vs. 97.4% a week ago and vs. 100% complete a year ago
  • Bean crop estimated at 55.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Bean average yield is 28.7 TPH slightly lower than a week ago

 

OECD-FAO estimated 2014 global wheat crop at 710.5 MMT vs. three year average of 692.1 MMT

 

OECD-FAO estimated 2014 global coarse grains output at 1.273 BT vs. three year average of 1.208 B

 

Record US bean crop spurs storage crunch and may worsen rail delays – Bloomberg

 

India’s Ag Min said as of today monsoon sown crop plantings fell to 25.7 MH vs. 50.2 MH a year ago

 

Czech Republic stats office estimated 2014 grain crop at 6.654 MMT down 2.5% from a year ago

 

Benign weather in US Midwest continue.

 

Poor Indian monsoon, expecting better rainfall pattern next week

 

Technically oversold

 

47 new KC wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. I KS

 

Deliveries

  • Beans 3 with the date at 6/26/14
  • KC wheat 55 with the date current
    • House ADM issued 47
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 8
    • House Bunge stopped 55
  • Bean oil 129 with the date at 7/9/14
  • No wheat
  • No corn
  • No meal
  • No Minneapolis wheat

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,310,612 open, down 299
  • Total beans 612,273 open, up 1,119
  • Total soymeal 308,824 open, up 1,928
  • Total bean oil 321,732 open, up 4,597
  • Total wheat 393,344 open, up 6,495
  • Total KC wheat 137,790 open, up 473

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Last trading day for July futures is Monday.  Futures expire at noon CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • NOPA June crush report comes out Tuesday at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for Aug options is Friday July 25th. Options expire at 115 pm CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE