News From The Grain Floor

The only difference between death and taxes is that death doesn’t get worse every time Congress meets.”

– Will Rogers

 

USDA announced 118,000 tons of beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 126,000 tons of beans sold to unknown 60,000 tons of old crop and 66,000 tons of new crop

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 6 ½ at 1110 ¼
  • CZ up ¾ at 398 ¾
  • WU up 3 ¾ at 555
  • KC WU up 3 at 656 ¼
  • MWU up 2 ¼ at 649 ½
  • SMZ up 2.40 at 357.60
  • BOZ up 21 at 3751
  • RRU down .50 at 1345

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 18,338
  • CZ 20,432
  • WU 4,281
  • KC WU 893
  • MWU 224
  • SMZ 7,375
  • BOZ 11,448
  • RRU 23

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal  2-3 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Stock market and crude oil lower. Dollar , gold, and silver higher .

 

Nikkei down .57%

Hang Seng up .27%

Shanghai Index down .01%

 

China’s June trade data came out this morning

  • China’s June exports +7.2% expecting +10% and vs. +7% in May
  • China’s June imports +5.5% expecting +5.4% and vs. – 1.6% in May
  • China’s June trade surplus $31.6 billion expecting a surplus of $36.9 B vs. $35.92 B in May

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out today at 730 am CST at -11K to 304K expecting 319K

 

Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at .5%

 

China grain closings = beans down 22, corn up 11, meal down 18, palm oil up 52, and bean oil down 20.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 14

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board came out this morning with their June Malaysian palm oil data.

  • Palm oil output at 1.57  MMT vs. average estimate 1.65 MMT  and vs. May output of 1.66 MMT
  • Palm oil exports at  1.48 MMT vs. average estimate 1.45 MMT and vs. May exports of 1.4 MMT
  • Palm oil stocks at 1.66  MMT vs. average estimate of 1.80 MMT and vs. May stocks of 1.84 MMT

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s July 1-10th palm oil exports at 442,640 tons up 18.7% from a month ago

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s July 1-10 palm oil exports at 445,968 tons up 14% from a month ago

 

China customs data showed China imported 6.39 MMT of beans in June expecting 6.77 MMT and down 7.7% from a year ago

 

China customs data showed China imported 530,000 tons of veg oils in June

 

China customs data showed China imported 3.6 MMT of veg oils in the first half of 2014 down 6.2% from a year ago

 

China customs data showed China imported 34.21 MMT of beans in the first half of 2014 (record) up 24.4% from a year ago

 

China customs data showed China imported 51.824 MMT of beans between Oct – June vs. 41.602 MMT a year ago

 

China corn auction today, sold 376,186 tons of corn (or 74%) they offered 502,404 tons.

 

Reports China bought 1 US bean cargo for Nov shipment yesterday

 

Reports China eyeing Brazilian bean cargoes for Aug-Sept shipment yesterday

 

CNGOIC estimated July China bean imports at 5.8 MMT

 

UAE bought 69,000 tons of US and South American corn for Nov March shipment

 

UAE bought 16,000 tons of soymeal  for November shipment

 

UAE bought 30,000 Australian barley for Nov shipment

 

Oil World said India exported 2.4 MMT of soymeal between Oct – June vs. 3.6 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World said India exported 1.1 MMT of rapeseed meal between Oct – June vs. 787,000 tons a year ago

 

Canada analysts are saying as many as 3.0 MA were lost due to wet weather, including 500,000-700,000 acres of canola.

 

Egypt’s supply ministry said Egypt has enough wheat stocks to last 6 months

 

South Korea bought 26,211 tons of rice from Australia and China for Dec shipment

 

Favorable weather conditions continue in the US Midwest

 

Indian monsoons are spreading, but are still below average

 

Favorable crop weather in China, some fields are flooded.

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning at 730 am CST .

  • Wheat  ‘14/15 338,100  (expecting 400,000-635,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘13/14 363,000 ‘14/15 381,600 (expecting old crop 225-400,000; new crop 375-650,000 tons)
  • Beans  ‘13/14 56,300 ‘14/15 526,500 (expecting  old crop – 100,000 to +100,000 ; new crop 300-500,000 tons)
  • Meal ‘13/14 48,800 ‘14/15 93,500 (expecting 30-275,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 12,800 (expecting 0-30,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 338,100 MT for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were primarily for the Philippines (107,200 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Saudi Arabia (68,300 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations)South Korea (58,400 MT), Mexico (54,100 MT), Brazil (50,500 MT), and Nigeria (24,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (43,500 MT) and the United Arab Emirates (1,700 MT). Exports of 394,700 MT were primarily to the Philippines (98,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (68,300 MT), Japan (40,400 MT), Brazil (33,000 MT), South Korea (33,000 MT), Venezuela (29,000 MT), Jamaica (21,700 MT), and Mexico (20,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 363,000 MT for 2013/2014 were up 25 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for South Korea (199,000 MT, including 120,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, 60,000 MT switched from China, and decreases of 2,300 MT), Japan (188,600 MT, including 131,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 22,200 MT), Egypt (126,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (99,400 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (60,000 MT, including 62,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,000 MT), and Peru (46,700 MT, including 33,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (424,900 MT), China (60,600 MT), Guatemala (4,000 MT), and Nicaragua (1,300 MT). Net sales of 381,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Egypt (176,000 MT), unknown destinations (122,500 MT), Japan (45,600 MT), and New Zealand (25,000 MT). Decreases were reported for China (3,000 MT). Exports of 1,207,100 MT were up 33 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (334,100 MT), Mexico (233,000 MT), South Korea (181,700 MT), Taiwan (81,500 MT), Venezuela (80,000 MT), the Netherlands (66,000 MT), Egypt (66,000 MT), and Morocco (64,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 56,300 MT for 2013/2014 were up 39 percent from the previous week, but down 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (59,200 MT), Taiwan (27,000 MT), Japan (21,100 MT, including 18,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Thailand (17,100 MT), and Vietnam (7,900 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (86,000 MT). Net sales of 526,500 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (399,500 MT) and unknown destinations (108,000 MT). Exports of 89,500 MT were down 29 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (34,300 MT), Japan (21,900 MT), Indonesia (13,300 MT), Thailand (7,500 MT), and Taiwan (3,800 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 48,800 MT for 2013/2014 were down 41 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (14,600 MT), the Philippines (13,900 MT), Canada (8,300 MT), Vietnam (4,700 MT), Belgium (2,800 MT), and El Salvador (2,400 MT, switched from Guatemala). Decreases were reported for Guatemala (2,100 MT) and unknown destinations (100 MT). Net sales of 93,500 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (82,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), and Ecuador (4,000 MT). Exports of 90,400 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (26,500 MT), Canada (22,100 MT), Venezuela (15,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (9,600 MT), and Guatemala (3,400 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 12,800 MT for 2013/2014 were down 34 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (10,000 MT), Nicaragua (1,100 MT), and Guatemala (1,000 MT). Exports of 4,300 MT were up 61 percent from the previous week, but down 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (2,700 MT), Nicaragua (1,100 MT), and Canada (300 MT).

 

4 new oat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

250 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

5 new KC wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. I KS

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 535 with the date current
  • Rice 3 with the date at 6/04/14
  • KC Wheat 5 with the date at 6/26/14.
    • House ADM issued 5
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 5
  • Oats 4 with the date at 6/27/14
  • Beans 3 with the date at 6/20/14
  • Wheat 18 with the date at 6/27/14
  • No meal
  • No Minneapolis wheat

 

Note: Dec corn 400 calls have 9,687 open – Dec corn 400 puts have 54,463 open

  • The Dec corn 400 strike has increased by 8,318 over the past 2 sessions

 

Note: 181,000 corn options traded yesterday. Average is about 60-100,000 contracts

 

Note: Nov bean 1100 calls have 9,196 open –   Nov bean 1100 puts have 63,827 open

  • The Nov bean 1100 strike has increased by 23,000 over the past 6 sessions.

 

Note: 100,000 bean options traded yesterday about 20-30,000 contracts more than

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • July corn 3,739 open, down 2,039
  • Total corn 1,311,596 open, up 4,988
  • July beans 1,422 open, down 566
  • Total beans 611,462 open, up 5,201
  • July meal 919 open, down 405
  • Total meal 306,965 open, down 506
  • July bean oil 828 open, down 367
  • Total bean oil 317,205 open, up 3,382
  • July wheat 227, down 150
  • Total wheat 387,406 open, up 2,518
  • July KC wheat 205 open, down 180
  • Total KC wheat 137,521 open, up 2,520

 

Estimates for Friday’s USDA report

 

US 2014 wheat production estimates

  • All wheat (20 analysts surveyed)  – average estimate 1.969 BB, range of 1.898- 2.031 BB. June USDA estimate was 1.942 BB and final USDA 2013 all wheat production was 2.130 BB.
  • All winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.378 BB , range of estimates are 1.336-1.410 BB. June USDA estimate was 1.381 BB and final USDA 2013 all winter wheat production was 1.534 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .719 BB, range of estimates are .686 -.750 BB. June USDA estimate was .720 BB and final USDA 2013 HRW wheat production was .744 BB.
  • Soft red winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .454 BB, range of estimates are .443-.471 BB. June USDA estimate was .454 BB and final USDA 2013 SRW wheat production was .565 BB
  • White winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .206 BB , range of estimates are .196-.220 BB. June USDA estimate was .225 BB and final USDA 2013 WW wheat production was .225 BB
  • Other spring wheat (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .536 BB, range of estimates are .495-.561 BB. Final USDA 2013 other spring wheat production was .534 BB
  • Durum wheat (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .060 BB, range of estimates are .053-.070 BB. Final USDA 2013 durum wheat production was .062 BB

 

‘13/14 US grain ending stock estimates

  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.232 BB, range of estimates are 1.146 – 1.350 BB. USDA June estimate was 1.146 BB
  • Beans (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .128 BB, range of estimates are .111-.156 BB. USDA June estimate was .125 BB

 

‘14/15 US grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .591 BB, range of estimates are .522 – .723 BB. USDA June estimate was .574 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.774 BB, range of estimates are 1.535-2.309 BB. USDA June estimate was 1.726 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .418 BB, range of estimates are .320 – .489 BB. USDA June estimate was .325 BB

 

‘13/14 World ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 185.74 MMT, range of estimates are 181.55 – 187.00 MMT. USDA June estimate was 186.05 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed)  – average estimate 169.48 MMT , range of estimates are 161.98 – 171.08 MMT. USDA June estimate was 169.05 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 67.59 MMT, range of estimates are 66.70-69.61 MMT. USDA June estimate was 67.17 MMT

 

‘14/15 World ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 188.37 MMT, range of estimates are 184.50-191.00 MMT. USDA June estimate was 188.61 MMT
  • Corn (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 184.53 MMT , range of estimates are 181.85-189.71 MMT. USDA June estimate was 182.65 MMT
  • Beans (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 84.79 MMT, range of estimates are 82.75-87.30 MMT. USDA June estimate was 82.88 MMT

 

USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) ‘14/15 US corn and bean production estimates . The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will issue its first survey-based report on US corn and bean crops in August

  • Corn production (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 13.945 BB, range of estimates are 13.731 – 14.482 BB. WASDE June estimate was 13.935 BB and final USDA 2013 corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 166.104 BPA, range of estimates are 165.00-172.00 BPA. WASDE June estimate was 165.3 BPA and final USDA 2013 corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Bean production (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.774 BB, range of estimates are 3.615 -3.871 BB. WASDE June estimate was 3.635 BB and final USDA 2013 bean production was 3.289 BB
  • Bean yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 45.138 BPA , range of estimates 44.5 – 46.2 BPA. WASDE June estimate was 45.2 BPA and final USDA 2013 bean yield was 43.3 BPA

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +89 BCF
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Last trading day for July futures is Monday July 14th .  Futures expire at noon CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE

 

Thank you,