News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Sometimes, in life, one has to do things that he rather prefers not to do, only in the hope to get where he want to be.

Barbara Begio

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for August shipment. Should have results sometime this morning.

 

USDA announced 101,600 tons of US corn sold to Japan for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 107,696 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 6 ¼ at 1110
  • CZ down 2 ½ at 401 ¾
  • WU down 2 ¼ at 554
  • KC WU down 4 ¾ at 659 ½
  • MWU down 4 at 653
  • SMZ down 1.20 at 356.10
  • BOZ down 29 at 3768
  • RRU down 3 at 1367

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,124
  • CZ 9,624
  • WU 4,779
  • KC WU 823
  • MWU 316
  • SMZ 4,613
  • BOZ 7,054
  • RRU 13

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 4-6 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 20-30 lower
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Crude lower . Dollar , gold , silver, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei down .08%

Hang Seng down 1.60%

Shanghai Index down 1.26%

 

Indonesia and Argentina are closed for holiday today

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a draw of 1.7 MB expecting a draw of 2.2 MB
  • Gas a build of 112,000 expecting a draw of 217,000
  • Distillates a draw of 522,000 expecting a build of 1.2 MB

 

China grain closings = beans down 20, corn up 9, meal down 35, palm oil down 36, and bean oil down 84

 

Malaysian palm oil down 9

 

Market talk China bought 1-3 cargoes of Brazilian beans for Aug-Sept shipment yesterday

 

China to auction 5.0 MMT of corn from reserves today and tomorrow. Have not seen any results from today’s auction yet.

 

Chinese analysts estimated ‘14/15 China DDGs imports at 500,000 – 1.0 MMT vs. 4.0 (record) MMT in ‘13/14

 

Reports/ market talk that US may be able to export beans to China for August shipment if needed. Some analysts do not believe this to be true.

 

Japan seeks 109,303 tons of wheat for Aug- Sept shipment from the US and Canada

 

Reports that the US Delta may begin bean harvest in mid-August.

 

Expectations USDA will raise US corn yield (not surveyed) on Friday’s report,  USDA has changed the corn yield on the July report only 3 times in the last 20 years (1994, 1999, and 2003)

 

CONAB came out this morning with their Brazilian crop estimate updates

  • ‘13/14 bean crop at  86.27 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.1 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn crop at 78.20 MMT vs. previous estimate of 77.9 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop at  7.40 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.37 MMT

 

Rosario Exchange – Argentina crop estimates

  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 55.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.6 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 54.0 MMT
  • 2014 wheat area estimated at 4.24 MH vs. previous estimate of 4.4 MH

 

Russia Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 grain exports at 27-30 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 25.372 MMT

 

Russia Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 grain crop at 94-99 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 92.4 MMT

 

Favorable US Midwest weather continues

 

Improving weather forecast in Canadian Prairies next 5-7 days

 

Concerns about poor India monsoon continues

 

50 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Minnesota Soybean Processors Brewster MN

 

5 new oat receipts

 

50 ethanol receipts canceled

 

8 rice receipts canceled

 

ADM Hutchinson Elev. 1 Kansas registered 89 new KC wheat receipts yesterday afternoon

 

Cargill Salina KS canceled 33 KC wheat receipts yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 716 with the date at 7/7/14
    • House Term issued 118
  • KC Wheat 89 with the date at 6/26/14
    • ADM issued 89
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 89
  • Oats 5 with the date at 6/27/14
  • Beans 3 with the date at 5/21/14
  • Wheat 18 with the date at 6/25/14
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No meal

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,306,531 open, up 8,448
  • Total soybeans 606,208 open, down 361
  • Total meal 307,700 open, up 2,023
  • Total bean oil 313,879 open, up 2,041
  • Total wheat 384,955 open, up 3,769
  • Total KC wheat 135,001 open, up 1,972

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 400,000
    • Distillates a build of 1.4 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • China June trade data comes out tonight /tomorrow morning.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their June Malaysian palm oil data. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Palm oil output average estimate 1.65 MMT vs. May output of 1.66 MMT
    • Palm oil exports average estimate 1.45 MMT vs. May exports of 1.4 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks 1.80 MMT vs. May stocks of 1.84 MMT
  • Surveyor SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their July 1-10th Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST. – I will email estimates for the report sometime this morning
  • Last trading day for July futures is Monday July 14th .  Futures expire at noon CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE