News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

When the American spirit was in its youth, the language of America was different: Liberty, sir, was the primary object.

Patrick Henry

 

I will not be putting out an afternoon recap today. Hope you all have a great long weekend.

 

USDA announced 176,000 tons of new crop US corn sold to Egypt

 

Informa comes out today with US production estimates and world production estimates. Informa will include beans and corn in their report tomorrow . USDA will not estimate corn and beans in next week’s report. Previous estimates were

  • US bean crop estimated at 3.591 BB
  • US bean yield estimated at 44.5  BPA
  • US corn crop estimated at 13.766  BB
  • US corn yield estimated at  163.5 BPA
  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat production estimated at 1.396 BB
  • ‘14/15 US Hard red winter wheat estimated at 744 MB
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat estimated at 477 MB
  • ‘14/15 US white wheat estimated at 205  MB
  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat yield estimated at 42.6 BPA
  • ‘14/15 US hard red winter wheat yield estimated at 33.2 BPA
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat yield estimated at  62.3  BPA

 

Grain markets close today at noon CST and do not reopen until Monday morning at 830 am CST.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 ½ at 1145
  • CZ up a ¼ at 418 ¼
  • WU up 3 at 578
  • KC WU down a ¼ at 681 ½
  • MWU down a ¼ at 664 ¾
  • SMZ up 1.40 at 364.50
  • BOZ up 10 at 3888
  • RRU down 3.50 at 1365.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 9,696
  • CZ 8,940
  • WU 2,890
  • KC WU 743
  • MWU 153
  • SMZ 4,100
  • BOZ 6,530
  • RRU 23

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil 5-15 higher
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Gold, silver and crude lower

 

Nikkei down .14%

Hang Seng down .08%

Shanghai Index up .18%

 

US June unemployment report came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • June nonfarm payrolls at +288K expecting +215K
  • June unemployment rate at 6.1% expecting 6.3%
  • May nonfarm payrolls revised to +224K from +217K

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +2K to 315K as expected

 

ECB leaves interest rates unchanged at .15% as expected.

 

ECB president press conference started this morning at 730 am CST

 

China grain closings – beans down 8, corn up 2, meal up 13, palm oil down 16, and bean oil down 20

 

Malaysia palm oil up 1.

 

China auctioned 5.0 MMT of corn Wednesday and Thursday. I have not seen any results from the auction.

 

China’s Commerce Ministry import estimates

  • June bean oil at 260,700 tons
  • June palm oil at 415,400 tons
  • June beans at 6.77 MMT
  • July bean oil at 60,000 tons
  • July palm oil at 55,000 tons
  • July beans at 5.05 MMT

 

State Administration of Grain said Chinese companies have bought 1.68 MMT of rapeseed in the first half of 2014 vs. 2.95 MMT a year ago

 

Market chatter from yesterday –  China is trying to resell/washout 2-3 (some saying as much as 6 cargoes) cargoes of Brazil beans for Aug ship.

 

South Korea KFA bought 60,000 tons of US, South American, or Chinese meal for Dec shipment

 

South Korea NOFI canceled tender to import 55,000 tons of South American meal for Nov shipment due to prices being too high

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 20,000 tons of US corn for August shipment

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 15,000 tons of US beans for August shipment

 

Turkey bought 150,000 feed barley from Russia, Ukraine, or EU for Aug-Sept shipment

 

FAO Global 2014 output estimates

  • Wheat at 707.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 702.7 MMT
  • Cereal crop at 2.4981 billion tons vs. previous estimate of 2.4798 B

 

ANZ said Western Australia exported 5.85 MMT of wheat between Oct – May (13 year high)

 

ANZ said Australia exported 13.5 MMT of wheat between Oct-May unchanged from a year ago and slightly higher than the 5 year average

 

Rosario port workers to strike tomorrow

 

Ag analysts in Canada said 16% of Canadian Prairies canola area may be damaged due to too wet conditions

 

Ag analysts in Canada said 16% of Canadian Prairies spring wheat area may be damaged due to too wet conditions

 

US EPA approves new fuels for federal biofuel mandate – Reuters

 

CME to raise margins on soymeal.

 

Non-threatening US Midwest weather forecast

 

70 bean oil receipts were canceled out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

130 rice receipts were canceled

 

Dec meal 200 day moving average is 365.00

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat – 80 with the date current
    • ADM house stopped 25
    • CHS Hedging house stopped 13
  • Bean oil 229 with the date at 6/30/14
    • Term house issued 9
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 73
  • Corn 5 with the date at 11/27/13
  • Beans 3 with the date at 5/2/14
  • Wheat 11 with the date at 6/19/14

 

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat –  ‘14/15 567,600 (expecting 300,000-450,000 tons)
  • Corn  – ‘13/14 290,700 ‘14/15 474,700 (expecting 500,000-800,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘13/14 40,600 ‘14/15 431,200 (expecting old crop 0-150,000 tons and new crop 300,000-500,000 tons)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 82,800 ‘14/15 116,700 (expecting old crop 0-100,000 tons and new crop 0-150,000 tons)
  • Bean oil- ‘13/14 19,400 (expecting 0-30,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 567,500 MT for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were primarily for Brazil (140,500 MT), Taiwan (137,200 MT), Mexico (79,900 MT), Japan (48,900 MT), unknown destinations (41,300 MT), and Nigeria (31,300 MT). Decreases were reported for Ecuador (3,500 MT). Exports of 335,500 MT were primarily to the Philippines (76,900 MT), Japan (58,000 MT), Mexico (33,200 MT), Brazil (32,400 MT), South Korea (28,400 MT), Colombia (25,900 MT), Algeria (19,200 MT), and Honduras (15,100 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 290,700 MT for 2013/2014 were up 14 percent from the previous week, but down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (129,800 MT), Japan (90,600 MT, including 49,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 10,200 MT), the Netherlands (66,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (62,800 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,300 MT), Saudi Arabia (62,100 MT, including 55,600 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Portugal (53,900 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from Spain and decreases of 1,100 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (182,500 MT), Spain (55,000 MT), Egypt (39,400 MT), and Venezuela (25,000 MT). Net sales of 474,700 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (224,800 MT), Japan (67,100 MT), Guatemala (59,600 MT), El Salvador (59,500 MT), and Mexico (59,000 MT). Exports of 909,500 MT were down 16 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were South Korea (193,000 MT), Egypt (156,600 MT), Mexico (135,100 MT), Japan (78,900 MT), the Netherlands (66,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (64,100 MT), and Colombia (62,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 40,600 MT for 2013/2014 were down 87 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Malaysia (13,500 MT, including 15,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT), Indonesia (9,100 MT), unknown destinations (9,000 MT), Taiwan (4,800 MT), and Japan (3,100 MT). Decreases were reported for Mexico (1,500 MT). Net sales of 431,200 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (206,000 MT), China (168,000 MT), and Mexico (45,000 MT). Exports of 126,300 MT were up 29 percent from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (40,700 MT), Indonesia (39,000 MT), Malaysia (13,500 MT), Thailand (10,400 MT), and Taiwan (5,400 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 82,800 MT for 2013/2014 were up 25 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (32,100 MT), Canada (14,400 MT), Guatemala (13,300 MT), the Dominican Republic (8,500 MT), Bangladesh (3,500 MT), and Japan (2,500 MT). Net sales of 116,700 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for the Philippines (80,000 MT), Guatemala (36,300 MT), and Mexico (400 MT). Exports of 73,500 MT were down 45 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (26,000 MT), Canada (22,000 MT), Mexico (17,500 MT), Sri Lanka (2,700 MT), and Bangladesh (2,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 19,400 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Dominican Republic (8,400 MT), Guatemala (5,700 MT), and Mexico (5,100 MT). Exports of 2,700 MT were down 83 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (2,400 MT) and Canada (100 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • July corn 10,572 open, down 2,801
  • Total corn 1,287,064 open, up 5,417
  • July beans 6,389 open, down 2,556
  • Total beans 597,762 open, up 1,338
  • July meal 3,703 open, down 540
  • Total meal 307,451 open, down 52
  • July bean oil 3,174 open, down 620
  • Total bean oil 307,796 open, down 2,943
  • July wheat 902 open, down 626
  • Total wheat 375,577 open, up 4,806
  • July KC wheat 639 open, down 429
  • Total KC 131,357 open, down 2,312

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +101 BCF
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly COT report will come out on Monday at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • CONAB comes out on July 9th with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • MPOB comes out on July 10th with their Malaysian June palm oil data report
  • Surveyor SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on July 10th with their July 1-10th Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on July 11th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for July futures is Monday July 14th .  Futures expire at noon CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE