News From The Grain Floor

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Biz Stone

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 1 ¾ at 1145 ¾
  • CZ down 2 at 420 ¾
  • WU down 1 ¼ at 571 ¼
  • KC WU down 2 at 686 ¾
  • MWU down 2 ½ at 667 ¾
  • SMZ up .80 at 362.90
  • BOZ down 18 at 3905
  • RRU down 2 at 1351

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,061
  • CZ 5,904
  • WU 3,762
  • KC WU 214
  • MWU 65
  • SMZ 4,575
  • BOZ 8,875
  • RRU 22

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal .50-1.00 higher
  • Bean oil 15-20 lower
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Gold, silver, and crude lower

 

Nikkei up .28%

Hang Seng up 1.50%

Shanghai Index up .44%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 876,000 expecting a draw of 2.2 MB
  • Gas a draw of 407,000 expecting a build of 400,000
  • Distillates a build of 4.4 MB expecting a build of 800,000

 

China grain closings = beans up 14 , corn up 1 Sept meal up 22 and Jan down 32 , palm oil up 18, and bean oil up 20

 

Malaysian palm oil up 6

 

China held a corn auction overnight. I have not seen results from the auction yet

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp seeking 20,000 US corn for Aug shipment

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp seeking 15,000 US beans for Aug shipment

 

South Korea Kocopia bought 55,000 tons of corn from the US or South America for Nov shipment

 

Market chatter – China seeking new crop US beans.

 

Market chatter – Brazil has bought up to 1.0 MMT of  wheat since government cut non-Mercosur wheat import taxes to 0%

 

Venezuela seeking soymeal

 

China Ag Min said agricultural yields could be hurt by El Nino

 

Argentina farmers may start holding on to their beans and corn if Argentina defaults on bond payments, would weaken peso.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 32.4 MMT of grain in ‘13/14 (record) up 41% from a year ago , including 9.4 MMT of wheat, 20.1 MMT of corn , and 2.5 MMT of barley

 

Kazakhstan’s Ag Min said  ’13/14 grain exports at 8.709 MMT vs. 7.023 MMT a year ago

 

Egypt’s supplies minister said Egypt has enough wheat supply to meet demand for the next 6 months

 

Dry in Indonesia and Malaysia

 

US weather non-threatening

 

Heavy storms on Monday night may have damaged fields in northern IL , northern IN, and northeast IA

 

Dec meal 200 day is 365.00

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 58 with the date at 6/27/14
    • House CHS Hedging stopped 55
  • Bean oil 504 with the date at 6/30/14
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 322 and stopped 25
  • Rice 33 with the date at 6/04/14
  • Corn 5 with the date at 11/22/13
  • KC wheat 54 with the date at 6/12/14
  • Oats 2 with the date at 5/19/14
  • Beans 3 with the date at 4/30/14
  • Wheat 51 with the date at 6/11/14
  • No meal

 

645 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon – 9,135 receipts are still registered

  • 270 canceled out of Bunge Danville IL
  • 335 canceled out of South Dakota Soybean Processors, Volga SD
  • 40 canceled out of Minnesota Soybean Processors, Brewster MN

 

163,000 corn options traded yesterday. On a normal day about 60,000-100,000 contracts trade

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • July corn 13,374 open, down 2,933
  • Total corn 1,281,756 open, down 6,926
  • July beans 8,945 open, down 2,941
  • Total beans 596,656 open, down 1,025
  • July meal 4,243 open, down 1,226
  • Total meal 308,417 open, up 7,700
  • July bean oil 3,794 open, down 1,160
  • Total bean oil 310,854 open, up 182
  • July wheat 1,529 open, down 609
  • Total wheat 370,846 open, up 2,847
  • July KC wheat 1,068 open, down 498
  • Total KC wheat 133,789 open, down 702

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.4 MB
    • Gas a build of 550,000
    • Distillates a build of 950,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • 2nd day of China’s corn auction tonight/tomorrow . They are offering a total of 5.0 MMT of corn for the 2 days.
  • June US unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • US May trade data report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Informa comes out tomorrow with US production estimates and world production estimates. Informa will include beans and corn in their report tomorrow . USDA will not estimate corn and beans in next week’s report. Previous estimates were
    • US bean crop estimated at 3.591 BB vs. USDA balance sheet estimate of 3.635 BB
    • US bean yield estimated at 44.5  BPA vs. USDA balance sheet estimate of 45.2 BPA
    • US corn crop estimated at 13.766  BB vs. USDA balance sheet estimate of 13.935 BB
    • US corn yield estimated at  163.5 BPA vs. US balance sheet estimate of 165.3 BPA
    • ‘14/15 US winter wheat production estimated at 1.396 BB vs. previous estimate of 1.496 BB
    • ‘14/15 US Hard red winter wheat estimated at 744    MB vs. previous estimate of 840 MB
    • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat estimated at 477 MB vs. previous estimate of 443  MB
    • ‘14/15 US white wheat estimated at 205  MB vs. previous estimate of 212  MB
    • ‘14/15 US winter wheat yield estimated at 42.6    BPA vs. previous estimate of 44.6  BPA
    • ‘14/15 US hard red winter wheat yield estimated at   33.2 BPA vs. previous estimate of 36.4 BPA
    • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat yield estimated at  62.3  BPA vs. previous estimate of 60.5 BPA
  • US markets close early tomorrow. Grain markets close at noon CST.
  • Friday July 4th is a holiday in the US all markets will be closed.
  • Grain markets will not reopen until Monday morning at 830 am CST. There is no Sunday night trade.
  • CONAB comes out on July 9th with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • MPOB comes out on July 10th with their Malaysian June palm oil data report
  • Surveyor SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on July 10th with their July 1-10th Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on July 11th at 11 am CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE