News From The Grain Floor

We always have to be aware of the enemy within, which is much more difficult to fight and more dangerous to liberty,”

Margaret Thatcher

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for August shipment should have results of tender sometime this morning.

 

Today is the beginning of a new month and a new quarter.

 

No USDA announcement this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 14 at 1143 ¼
  • CZ down 4 ½ at 420 ¾
  • WU down 1 ½ at 576
  • KC WU down 4 at 696 ¼
  • MWU down 2 at 675 ¼
  • SMZ down 5.40 at 362.00
  • BOZ down 10 at 3905
  • RRU down 3.50 at 1353.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 28,718
  • CZ 22,817
  • WU 5,920
  • KC WU 688
  • MWU 322
  • SMZ 9,317
  • BOZ 11,925
  • RRU 11

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-20 lower
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, dollar, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 1.06%

Hang Seng down .13%

Shanghai Index up .10%

 

June final mfg PMIs

  • China at 51.0 (highest since December) expecting 51.1 vs. May final of 50.8
  • Eurozone 51.8 expecting 51.9 vs. May final of 52.2
  • Germany 52.0 expecting 52.4 vs. May final of 52.3
  • France 48.2 expecting 47.8 vs. May final of 49.6
  • UK at 57.5 expecting 57.0 vs. May final of 57.0
  • Italy at 52.6 expecting 53.3 vs. May final of 53.2

 

Canada is closed today for holiday.

 

China grain closings = beans down 118, corn down 5, meal down 140, palm oil down 146, and bean oil down 186

 

Malaysian palm oil down 8

 

At some point yesterday , December meal came within .60 cents of going limit down yesterday

 

Sept, Dec, March , and May corn all made new contract lows overnight . Sept low was 413, Dec low was 420, March low 430 ¾ , and May low was 438 ¼.

 

Nov beans are well below the 200 day moving average of 1177 ¼. Nov beans closed at 1145 overnight

 

Dec meal 200 day moving average is 364.90

 

China eyeing new crop US beans.

 

Japan skips regular weekly food wheat tender this week

 

Malaysia bought a meal/corn combo.

 

Yesterday USDA estimated 2014 US bean acreage at 84.8 MA , which will be a record by at least 7 MA

 

Chinese crush analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week of June 21-27 total crush volume at 1,380,600 tons down 13.21% from a week ago
  • For the week June 21-27 total crush capacity utilization at 47.71% down 7.27% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1,2013-June 27, 2014) crush volume at 52,282,488 tons up 19.06% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1-June 27,2014) crush volume at 33,733,691 tons up 19.06% from a year ago
  • As of June 27 total imported bean stocks at 6.0549 MMT up 114,300 a week ago and up 1.92% from a year ago
  • Estimated June bean imports at 6.3623 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.3 MMT
  • Estimated August bean imports at 5.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.2 MMT
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Xinhua News reported yesterday that China has rejected 1.25 MMT of US corn through June 6th due to unapproved GMO,  and said unapproved GMO may start to affect some sorghum imports

 

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s June bean imports at 6.77 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.06 MMT and vs. June 2013 imports of 6.926 MMT

 

China’s MOC estimated China’s July bean imports at 5.05 MMT vs. July 2013 bean imports of 7.197 MMT

 

China’s MOC said China has imported 57.254 MMT of beans so far this season through June 30th vs. 48.799 MMT a year ago

 

Talk/ Reports from yesterday Brazil may hold corn auctions beginning in August.

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazil’s second corn crop is 2.9% harvested

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s second corn crop at 43.976 MMT vs. 45.204 MMT a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of June 30th Russia has harvested 3.5 MMT on 953,600 hectares with an average yield of 3.65 TPH vs. 8.8 MMT on 2.5 MH with an average yield of 3.49 TPH a year ago

 

India’s Meteorological Department said rainfall in June was lowest in five years.

 

Grain South Africa CEO said South Africa may start exporting yellow corn to China soon. South Africa and China are in final stages of agreement.

 

Russia’s largest farming region is reporting better than expected wheat yields this week

 

Violent storms in Midwest yesterday may have caused some damage to crops.

 

Flooding in some wheat and canola fields in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada due to heavy rains over the weekend

 

400 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 545 with the date at 6/26/14
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 255
  • Corn 3 with the date at 9/9/13
  • Beans 21 with the date at 4/25/14
    • Customer ADM stopped 18
  • Wheat 84 with the date of 5/30/14
  • KC Wheat 54 with the date at 5/29/14
    • House ADM issued 54
    • Customer ADM stopped 16
  • Minneapolis wheat 113 with the date at 6/26/14
    • CHS Hedging house issued 1
    • CHS Hedging customer issued 51
    • CHS house stopped 113
  • Rice 400 with the date at 6/04/14
  • Oats 3 date not available
  • No meal

 

Talk/Reports from over the weekend that flooding in parts of IA , NE, and KS may result in a loss of corn acres

 

Flood waters to close parts of the Mississippi river from Iowa to Missouri

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Weekly US Crop progress report

 

Corn

  • Condition  75% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago (expecting down 1-2% from a week ago) vs. 67% a year ago
  • Silking 5% vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 9% five year average

 

Beans

  • Condition 72% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago  (expecting down 1-2% from a week ago) vs. 67% a year ago
  • Emerged 94% vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 94% five year average
  • Blooming 10% vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 10% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition   (expecting down 1% from a week ago)
  • Headed

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition  30% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 34% a year ago
  • Harvest 43%  (expecting 45-50% complete) vs. 33% a week ago and vs. 48% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 69% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 66% a year ago
  • Headed 9% vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 9% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 53% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 47% a year ago
  • Squaring 36% vs. 25% a week ago and  vs. 42% five year average
  • Setting bolls  7% vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 10% five year average

 

 

Weekly US export inspection report from yesterday

  • Wheat 335,389 tons expecting 450,000-575,000 tons
  • Corn 872,960 tons expecting 950,000 – 1.1 M tons
  • Beans 72,804 tons expecting 50-125,000 tons

 

Option players from yesterday

Corn:

Tenco sold 4000 Q 400 puts

Tenco bot 500 Z 400 puts

ICAP sold 2000 Q 450 calls

ICAP bot 500 Z 460 calls/sold 500 Z 430 puts/sold 420 CZ

ABN sold 1000 U 440 straddles

Bache sold 3000 Q 410 puts

Bache bot 1000 U 450 calls/sold 320 CU

 

Beans:

ABN Bot 1500 Nov 1100/1060 Put spds 6.375 db

ABN Bot 1500 Nov 1060/1000 Put spds 5.375 db

Bunge Bot 500 WK1  1350 Puts 8-8.75

ADM Bot 500 Aug 1400/1450 Call spds 15.25 db

Obrien Bot 1400 Nov 1100 Puts 14.875-15

JP Morgan Bot 400 Aug 1320 Puts 12.25/ Bot 96 Nov futures 1381

Obrien Bot 400 Nov 1300 calls 30.5-31.5

Jeffries Sold 250 Nov 1200 Puts/ Sold 250 Nov 1240 Calls 98 credit/ Bot 20 nov futures 1226

JP Morgan Bot 250 Aug 1400/1500 call spds 22.75 db

Obrien Sold 250 Nov 1200 calls 46

ABN Sold 1000 Nov 1040 Puts 9.5-10

ADM Sold 500 Nov 1060 puts 12.25-13.25

Bunge Sold 500 Nov 1200/1140 Put spds 26.5-28 credit

ADM Sold 500 Nov 1220 calls 32.5-37

ABN Bot 500 Nov 1260 Calls/ Sold 500 Aug 1380 calls 12.25 db

Obrien Sold 400 SDFU 1200/1140 Put spds 10 credit

ABN Sold 1000 Nov 1260/1400 call spds 16.5-16.75 credit

Bunge Sold 200 Nov 1180/1140 Put spds 19.5 credit

JP Morgan Sold 2000 Nov 1200 Puts 74/ Sold 1160 Nov futures 1164

Bunge Sold 400 Nov 1180/1160 Put spds 10-11 credit

Obrien Sold 250 Nov 1200 Puts/ Bot 5000 Nov 1120 Puts 2.5-4.75 credit

Obrien Bot 300 Nov 1200 calls 40

Goldman Bot 600 Nov 1100/1000 Put spds 19.5-19.75 db

JP Morgan Bot 200 Sep 1260/1380 call spds 16.25/ Sold 50 Sep futures 1203

ADM Bot 1000 Aug 1450 Calls 2.5-2.625

FI Sold 500 Sep 1200 Puts/ Bot 500 Nov 1160 Puts 11.25 credit

Bunge Sold 400 Oct 1180 calls 40-41

ABN Bot 1000 Aug 1400 Calls 7.5

Fimat Bot 500 Nov 1180/1260 Call spds 26.25 db/ Sold 115 Nov futures 1163

Bunge Bot 600 SDFU 1140/1100 Put spds 13.5-14

Rosenthal Bot 3000 Nov 1060/1000 Put spds 10.25-10.75 db

Macquarie Sold 300 Aug 1360 Calls 15.5/ Bot 96 Aug futures 1324

Rand Bot 400 Sep 1140 Puts/ Sold 200 Sep 1200 Puts 5 credit

ICAP Sold 200 Nov 1200 Calls 36

Obrien Bot 250 Nov 1100 Puts 31

Obrien Sold 200 Nov 1160 straddles 109

DRAX Bot 600 Nov 1040/980 Put spds 9 db

JP Morgan Bot 300 Nov 1060 /1000 Puts spds 11.25 db

Bunge Sold 400 SDFU 1180 Calls 27.5-28

Fimat Sold 300 Nov 1140 puts/ Sold 300 Nov 1340 Calls 54 credit/ Sold 100 Nov futures 1155

 

Wheat:

Bache sold 1300 Z 520-500 put spreads

Rand sold 500 U 600-550 put spreads

 

Meal:

ABN bot 1000 Q 430 puts/bot 280 SMQ

Bache sold 1000 U 410 puts/bot 1000 V 380 puts

ADM bot 500 Q 440 puts

JPM sold 500 Q 450 calls/bot 500 V 420 calls

Rosenthal sold 400 Z 340-320 put spreads

Bache bot 300 V 380 puts/sold 300 V 410 puts

 

Oil:

FI bot 1000 Q 44 calls

Rosenthal sold 1000 U 41 calls

RJO bot 600 V 40-42 call spreads

New Edge sold 500 Q 40 ½-39 put spreads

Rosenthal sold 300 Q 37 puts

Rosenthal bot 250 Z 42 ½ calls

JPM bot 300 Z 39 ½ calls

 

Crush quotes from yesterday

 

OPEN            CLOSE

JLY            40-46             25-35

AUG         45-46             45.5-46.5

SEP           88-94             97-1.00

OCT          84.5-86          84.5-86

DEC           81-82             80.5-82

JAN           72.-5-73        73-74.5

MCH         70-72             72.5-74

MAY          70.5-71.5     71.5-72.5

JLY5            68-69.5        71-72

AUG5        74-78             75-78

 

Crush and oil share players from yesterday

  • ADM sold 60 Sept crush at 1.00
  • Rand sold 50 Dec crush at 82
  • Rand bought 100 Dec oil / meal oil share at 33.75-35.05%

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,289,102 open, up 1,741
  • Total beans 598,141 open, up 6,462
  • Total meal 301,696 open, down 3,516
  • Total bean oil 310,691 open, down 2,387
  • Total wheat 368,096 open, up 1,156
  • Total KC wheat 134,488 open, down 203

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • China will auction 5.0 MMT of corn from reserves on tomorrow and Thursday
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • June US unemployment report comes out Thursday July 3rd at 730 am CST.
  • US markets close early on July 3rd. Grain markets close at noon CST.
  • Friday July 4th is a holiday in the US all markets will be closed.
  • Grain markets will not reopen until Monday morning at 830 am CST. There is no Sunday night trade.
  • MPOB comes out on July 10th with their Malaysian June palm oil data report

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE