News From The Grain Floor

“If everything seems under control, you’re just not going fast enough.”

– Mario Andretti

 

USDA June acreage and quarterly stocks report comes out today at 11 am CST. See attachment for recap table.

 

Today is month end and end of the quarter.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 1 ¼ at 1227 ¼
  • CZ down 4 ½ at 442 ¾
  • WU down 4 ½ at 589 ¼
  • KC WU down 2 ¾ at 719
  • MWU down 4 ¼ at 688 ¼
  • SMZ up 1.10 at 394.10
  • BOZ down 20 at 4019
  • RRU down 3 at 1352.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 11,579
  • CZ 13,850
  • WU 5,236
  • KC WU 230
  • MWU 80
  • SMZ 1,838
  • BOZ 4,299
  • RRU 16

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat  3-5 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice  2-4 lower

 

Dollar, stock market, crude, silver, and gold lower .

 

Nikkei up .44%

Hang Seng down .13%

Shanghai Index down .57%

 

Ramadan began on Saturday.

 

China grain closings = beans down 22, corn unchanged , meal down 55, palm oil down 68, and bean oil down 64

 

Palm oil down 20

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated June Malaysian palm oil export estimates at 1,391,942 tons up 5.8% from a month ago

 

SGS estimated June Malaysian palm oil export estimates at 1,389,806 tons up 4.6% from a month ago

 

Oil World said global palm oil exports fell for the first time in years in the first half of 2014. Palm oil exports were down 1.6 MMT vs. up 3.1 MMT in the first half of 2013 and vs. up 1.5 MMT five year average.

 

Some analysts estimated China’s ‘13/14 soybean imports at 71-72 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 69.0 MMT

 

JCI said China imported 79,000 US corn in May

 

Mexico seeking wheat for August shipment

 

Iraq seeks 30,000 tons of rice optional origin for July shipment

 

Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of hard wheat for Sept – Nov shipment

 

Turkey seeks 10,000 milling wheat for July- Aug shipment optional origin

 

Turkey seeks 10,000 barley for July- Aug shipment optional origin

 

Report on Reuters – Argentine debt battle could reduce global bean supply. Argentine farmers say they will stockpile beans in the second half of this year if the government is unable to cut a deal with the debt investors to stave off a new sovereign default.

 

On Thursday night DuPont reported larger than expected US soybean seed sales

 

On Thursday Monsanto also reported lower corn seed sales and higher soybean seed sales in the US

 

Today is first notice day for July futures.  Deliveries are

  • Meal 0 deliveries expecting 0 deliveries (0 receipts are still registered )
  • Beans 0 deliveries   expecting 0-21 deliveries  (21 receipts are still registered)
  • Bean oil 1,814 deliveries, House Term issued 997, Customer JP Morgan stopped 294   expecting 500-2,000 deliveries  (9,780 receipts are registered as of Friday afternoon)
    • 210 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon
      • 200 out of  Cargill Ackley IA
      • 10 out of Zeeland Farms Services Portage IN
  • Corn 3 deliveries with the date at 4/13/13 expecting 0 – 6 deliveries (6 receipts are still registered)
  • Wheat 71 deliveries with the date at 4/29/14 expecting 0-200 deliveries (194 receipts are still registered)
  • KC wheat 0 deliveries expecting 0-50 deliveries (54 receipts are still registered)
  • Minneapolis wheat 396 deliveries with the date at 6/26/14 expecting 400 – 500 deliveries , some analysts said 0 Minneapolis wheat deliveries are expected
    • ADM house issued 396
    • ADM customer stopped 14
    • Country Hedging house stopped 149
    • Country Hedging customer stopped 166
  • Rice 0 deliveries   there are no estimates (300 rice receipts are still registered)
  • Oats 3 deliveries  there are no estimates (15 oat receipts are still registered)

 

Reminder, just in case of a big move after the USDA report. Trading limits are

  • Beans                                    $1.00
  • Corn                                      35 cents
  • Chicago wheat                  45 cents
  • KC wheat                             50 cents
  • Minneapolis wheat         60 cents
  • Meal                                      $30
  • Oil                                           300 points

 

April US EIA data from Friday afternoon

  • April US biodiesel output was 93 million gallons vs. 99 million gallons in March and down 13% from a year ago
  • Jan – April US biodiesel output was 340 million gallons down 2% from a year ago
  • April bean oil usage in methyl ester was 360 million pounds vs. 379 million pounds in March and vs. 423 million pounds a year ago
  • Jan – April bean oil usage in methyl ester was 1,257 million pounds down 14% from a year ago
  • 148 million bushels of corn was used in April to be processed into ethanol

 

Moving averages

  • Nov bean 50 day 1229
  • KC Sept wheat 200 day 716 ½
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 4042
  • Dec bean oil 100 day 4069
  • Dec bean oil 200 day 4102
  • Dec meal 50 day 393.30

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • July corn 24,890 open, down 41,783
  • Total corn 1,287,350 open, down 32,266
  • July beans 20,933 open, down 15,102
  • Total beans 591,752 open, down 9,721
  • July meal 9,120 open, down 5,882
  • Total meal 304,939 open, down 6,479
  • July bean oil 7,941 open, down 2,474
  • Total bean oil 313,149 open, down 1,648
  • July wheat 4,433 open, down 6,709
  • Total wheat 367,278 open, down 1,033
  • July KC wheat 2,643 open, down 2,485
  • Total KC wheat 134,691 open, down 1,514

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections come out today at 10 am CST
  • USDA stocks and acreage report today at 11 am CST – See attachment for report recap
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting
    • Corn good to excellent conditions to fall 1-2% from a week ago
    • Bean good to excellent conditions to fall 1-2% from a week ago
    • Spring wheat good to excellent conditions to fall 1% from a week ago
    • Winter wheat harvest 45-50% complete vs. 33% a week ago
      • Kansas winter wheat harvest to be about 30% complete
  • Final China HSBC PMI comes out tonight / tomorrow
  • Final Eurozone, Germany, France, and UK final PMIs come out tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow
  • China will auction 5.0 MMT of corn from reserves on Wednesday and Thursday
  • June US unemployment report comes out Thursday July 3rd at 730 am CST.
  • US markets close early on July 3rd. Grain markets close at noon CST.
  • Friday July 4th is a holiday in the US all markets will be closed.
  • Grain markets will not reopen until Monday morning at 830 am CST. There is no Sunday night trade.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE