News From The Grain Floor

 

“If it weren’t for Philo T. Farnsworth, inventor of television, we’d still be eating frozen radio dinners.”

– Johnny Carson

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Today is position day for July futures . Traders should be out of long positions by today’s close or risk delivery. Expectations for tonight’s deliveries are

  • Meal 0 deliveries (0 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon)
  • Beans 0-21 deliveries  (21 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon )
  • Bean oil 500-2,000 deliveries  (9,990 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon)
  • Corn 0 deliveries (6 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon)
  • Wheat 0-50 deliveries (194 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon)
  • KC wheat 0-50 deliveries (54 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon)
  • Minneapolis wheat 400 – 500 deliveries are expected
  • There are no early estimates for rice deliveries but there are 300 receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon
  • There are no early estimates for oat deliveries but there were 15 receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon

 

July futures open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • July corn 67,087 open, down 34,673
  • July beans 36,416 open, down 11,955
  • July meal 15,021 open, down 6,073
  • July bean oil 10,411 open, down 7,456
  • July wheat 11,183 open, down 8,744
  • July KC wheat 5,169 open, down 2,667
  • July oats 257 open, down 357
  • July rice 1,298 open, down 601

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 4 at 1240 ¼
  • CZ down 1 ½ at 441 ¾
  • WU up a ¼ at 585
  • KC WU up a ¼ at 715
  • MWU down ¾ at 686
  • SMZ down 1.40 at 395.70
  • BOZ down 16 at 4070
  • RRU up 4 at 1350

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 8,617
  • CZ 9,118
  • WU 4,357
  • KC WU 301
  • MWU 201
  • SMZ 2,601
  • BOZ 4,413
  • RRU 72

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal 1-2 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Gold and crude higher . Dollar , stock market and silver lower .

 

Nikkei down 1.43%

Hang Seng up .10%

Shanghai index down .11%

 

CBO on EPA Biofuel Mandate –from outside source

Congressional Budget Office report suggests future projections of higher gasoline demand by 2017 would increase pump prices by up to 27 cents if the US Environmental Protection Agency does not temper their biofuel mandate use.  They also  predict breaching the blend wall by 2017 would push diesel prices up by 30 to as much as 51 cents per gallon.

 

China grain closings = beans up 2, corn unchanged , meal up 4, palm oil down 42, and bean oil down 24

 

Malaysian palm oil down 25.

 

Hearing Brazil bought 2 US HRW wheat cargoes yesterday for July shipment

 

China sold a total of 981,055 tons of corn at this week’s 2 day auction they offered 4,996,681 tons

 

Oman bought 60,000 Russian wheat for October shipment

 

USDA attaché in China estimated ‘14/15 corn crop at 220.0 MMT vs. 217.7 MMT a year ago

 

USDA attaché in China estimated ‘14/15 corn harvested area at 36.5 MH vs. 36.1 MH a year ago

 

Indonesia has failed to meet its expanded palm oil biodiesel mandate this year.

 

Texas Grain Sorghum Association said Texas farmers are abandoning wheat to plant more sorghum after drought. Texas sorghum planting area estimated at 2.8 MA vs. USDA estimate of 2.5 MA

 

Rains are delaying wheat harvest in the US

 

Near ideal weather conditions in the US continue

 

129 bean receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 44 out of Zen Noh Hennepin IL
  • 85 out of Zen Noh Utica IL

 

50 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Bunge Danville IL

 

8 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Stats Canada came out this morning with their Canadian 2014 acreage estimates.

  • All wheat at 24.1  MA vs. average estimate of 24.5 MA vs. April estimate of 24.9363 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 26.2565
  • Durum at 4.8 MA vs. average estimate of 4.7 MA vs. April estimate of 4.2 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 4.965 MA
  • Canola at 20.2  MA vs. average estimate of 19.9 MA vs. April estimate of 19.801 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 19.9358 MA
  • Oats at  3.0 MA vs. average estimate of 3.2 MA vs. April estimate of 3.1876 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 3.1676 MA
  • Barley at 6.1  MA vs. average estimate of 6.5 MA vs. April estimate of 6.3106 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 7.0825 MA
  • Flax at 1.6  MA vs. average estimate 1.7 MA vs. April estimate of 1.715 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 1.035 MA
  • Corn at 3.119 MA vs. average estimate of 3.3 MA vs. April estimate of 3.3688 MA and vs. 2013 estimate of 3.6893
  •  Soybeans at 5.583 MA vs. average estimate of 5.1 MA vs. April estimate of 5.2644 MA and vs. 2013 estimate of 4.5189 MA

 

India Ag Min 2014 crop planting area estimates

  • Corn area at 1.1 MH vs. 2.2 MH a year ago
  • Bean area at 101,000 hectares vs. 177,000 hectares a year ago
  • Oilseed area at 479,000 hectares vs. 901,000 hectares a year ago
  • Rice area 2.2 MH vs. 3.6 MH a year ago

 

Moving averages

  • Nov bean 50 day 1229 ¼
  • KC Sept wheat 200 day 716 ½
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 4048
  • Dec bean oil 100 day 4068
  • Dec bean oil 200 day 4104
  • Dec meal 50 day 393.20

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,320,248 open, down 16,330
  • Total beans 601,482 open, down 3,087
  • Total meal 311,627 open, down 917
  • Total bean oil 10,411 open, down 7,456
  • Total wheat 370,391 open, down 3,887
  • Total KC wheat 136,271 open, down 1,716

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Ramadan begins tomorrow
  • Monday is month end .
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out Monday with their June Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US export inspections come out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • USDA stocks and acreage report on Monday at 11 am CST – See attachment for report recap
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • China will auction 5.0 MMT of corn from reserves on July 2-3.
  • June US unemployment report comes out Thursday July 3rd at 730 am CST.
  • Friday July 4th is a holiday in the US all markets will be closed.

 

Estimates for Monday’s report…

Estimates for 2014 US acreage

  • Corn – (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 91.725 MA , range of estimates are 91.0-92.2 MA. USDA March estimate was 91.691 MA and 2013 final corn acreage was 95.365 MA
  • Beans – (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 82.154 MA, range of estimates are 80.5-84.0 MA. USDA March estimate was 81.493 MA and 2013 final bean acreage was 76.533 MA
  • All wheat – (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.818 MA, range of estimates are 54.8-57.0 MA. USDA March estimate was 55.815 MA and 2013 final all wheat acreage was 56.156 MA
  • Spring wheat – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 11.860 MA, range of estimates are 10.5 -12.2 MA. USDA March estimate was 12.009 MA and 2013 final spring wheat acreage was 11.596 MA
  • Durum wheat – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.790 MA, range of estimates are 1.694-1.900 MA. USDA March estimate was 1.799 MA and 2013 final durum wheat acreage was 1.470 MA

 

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks as of June 1st

  • Wheat – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .598 BB, range of estimates are .560-.633 BB. USDA March 1, 2014 wheat stocks were 1.056 BB and June 1, 2013 wheat stocks were .718 BB
  • Corn – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.722 BB, range of estimates are 3.046-3.950 BB. USDA March 1, 2014 corn stocks were 7.006 BB and June 1, 2013 corn stocks were 2.766 BB
  • Beans – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .378 BB, range of estimates are .334-.440 BB. USDA March 1, 2014 bean stocks were .992 BB and June 1, 2013 bean stocks were .435 BB

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE