News From The Grain Floor

Technological progress has merely provided us with more efficient means for going backwards.”

– Aldous Huxley

 

NO USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 8 ¾ at 1237 ¾
  • CZ up 1 ¾ at 441 ¾
  • WU up ¾ at 585
  • KC WU up 1 at 714 ½
  • MWU up a ½ at 685 ¼
  • SMZ up 3.30 at 393.90
  • BOZ up 13 at 4096
  • RRU up 5.5 at 1372

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,690
  • CZ 7,207
  • WU 7,600
  • KC WU 567
  • MWU 439
  • SMZ 3,754
  • BOZ 5,210
  • RRU 60

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-12 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat steady better
  • Meal 3.00-4.00 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 5-6 higher

 

Dollar higher. Crude, gold, silver lower.

 

Nikkei up .27%

Hang Seng up 1.41%

Shanghai Index up .64%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -2K to 312K expecting 310K

 

China grain closings – beans down 11, corn down 1, meal down 4, palm oil down 20, bean oil down 10

 

Palm oil up 12

 

China held another corn auction overnight they offered 2.29 MMT of corn. I have not seen results yet.

 

53 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 46 out of Cargill Ackley IA
  • 7 out of Solae Gibson City IL

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • Wheat –   ‘14/15 359,400 ‘15/16 100  ( expecting ‘14/15 300,000 – 450,000 tons )
  • Corn –   ‘13/14 321,400 ‘14/15 232,100   (expecting ‘13/14 150,000 – 300,000 and ‘14/15 200,000 -300,000 tons)
  • Beans –  ‘13/14 317,200 ‘14/15 457,700  (expecting ‘13/14 50,000 – 150,000 tons and ‘14/15 200,000 – 400,000 tons)
  • Meal –   ‘13/14 66,300 ‘14/15 187,100  (expecting ‘13/14 0-100,000 tons and ‘14/15 0-150,000 tons)
  • Bean oil –   ‘13/14 1,900  (expecting ‘13/14 0-20,000 tons and ‘14/15 0-10,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 359,400 MT for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were primarily for South Korea (80,500 MT), Brazil (64,300 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (49,000 MT), Chile (44,200 MT), Jamaica (36,000 MT), and Japan (29,100 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (81,600 MT), Vietnam (5,900 MT), Burma (500 MT), and Costa Rica (300 MT). Net sales of 100 MT for delivery in the 2015/2016 marketing year were for Japan. Exports of 587,000 MT were primarily to Japan (106,600 MT), Indonesia (97,000 MT), Brazil (92,800 MT), Guatemala (47,900 MT), Chile (44,200 MT), Mexico (30,900 MT), and Nigeria (27,200 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 321,400 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (142,000 MT, including 77,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 12,500 MT), South Korea (127,100 MT), Vietnam (86,000 MT, including 90,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,000 MT), Spain (72,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (68,000 MT), and the Netherlands (60,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (327,700 MT), China (60,000 MT), and Israel (1,100 MT). Net sales of 232,100 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Mexico (138,600 MT), unknown destinations (65,600 MT) and Costa Rica (27,400 MT). Decreases were reported for the Philippines (200 MT). Exports of 1,154,500 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (292,700 MT), Japan (224,600 MT), South Korea (135,500 MT), Israel (133,900 MT), Spain (132,000 MT), Vietnam (86,000 MT), and Costa Rica (60,800 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 317,200 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (197,600 MT), Mexico (56,100 MT), Thailand (38,000 MT), Taiwan (10,000 MT), and Vietnam (8,000 MT). Net sales of 457,700 MT for 2014/2015 were for China (247,000 MT), unknown destinations (170,000 MT), Mexico (19,300 MT), Costa Rica (13,300 MT), and Taiwan (5,000 MT). Exports of 98,200 MT were down 49 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (52,900 MT), Japan (22,000 MT), Indonesia (11,100 MT), Taiwan (5,700 MT), and Canada (4,100 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 66,300 MT for 2013/2014 were up 21 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (16,100 MT, including 12,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (15,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (12,000 MT), Canada (11,900 MT), Guatemala (11,000 MT, including 9,600 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Panama (8,600 MT, switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (29,700 MT). Net sales of 187,100 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for the Philippines (123,000 MT) and Vietnam (40,000 MT). Exports of 133,400 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (26,400 MT), Venezuela (25,000 MT), Canada (21,200 MT), Japan (14,700 MT), and Guatemala (12,000 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 1,900 MT for 2013/2014 were down 82 percent from the previous week and 93 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (1,100 MT), Nicaragua (500 MT), Canada (200 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT). Exports of 15,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Guatemala (12,000 MT), Mexico (2,700 MT), Nicaragua (500 MT), and Canada (300 MT).

 

Moving averages

  • SX 50 day 1229
  • KC WU 200 day 716 ½
  • BOZ 50 day 4052
  • BOZ 100 day 4066
  • BOZ 200 day 4105
  • SMZ 50 day 392.80

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,336,633 open, down 25,067
  • Total beans 604,653 open, down 3,711
  • Total meal 312,691 open, down 590
  • Total bean oil 316,551 open, down 4,681
  • Total wheat  374,465 open, down 1,828
  • Total KC wheat 138,091 open, down 291

 

USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report comes out on Monday June 30th at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters poll, expecting

 

Estimates for 2014 US acreage

  • Corn – (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 91.725 MA , range of estimates are 91.0-92.2 MA. USDA March estimate was 91.691 MA and 2013 final corn acreage was 95.365 MA
  • Beans – (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 82.154 MA, range of estimates are 80.5-84.0 MA. USDA March estimate was 81.493 MA and 2013 final bean acreage was 76.533 MA
  • All wheat – (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.818 MA, range of estimates are 54.8-57.0 MA. USDA March estimate was 55.815 MA and 2013 final all wheat acreage was 56.156 MA
  • Spring wheat – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 11.860 MA, range of estimates are 10.5 -12.2 MA. USDA March estimate was 12.009 MA and 2013 final spring wheat acreage was 11.596 MA
  • Durum wheat – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.790 MA, range of estimates are 1.694-1.900 MA. USDA March estimate was 1.799 MA and 2013 final durum wheat acreage was 1.470 MA

 

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks as of June 1st

  • Wheat – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .598 BB, range of estimates are .560-.633 BB. USDA March 1, 2014 wheat stocks were 1.056 BB and June 1, 2013 wheat stocks were .718 BB
  • Corn – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.722 BB, range of estimates are 3.046-3.950 BB. USDA March 1, 2014 corn stocks were 7.006 BB and June 1, 2013 corn stocks were 2.766 BB
  • Beans – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .378 BB, range of estimates are .334-.440 BB. USDA March 1, 2014 bean stocks were .992 BB and June 1, 2013 bean stocks were .435 BB

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +105 BCF
  • Stats Canada acreage report comes out tomorrow morning. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 24.5 MA vs. April estimate of 24.9363 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 26.2565
    • Durum average estimate 4.7 MA vs. April estimate of 4.2 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 4.965 MA
    • Canola average estimate 19.9 MA vs. April estimate of 19.801 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 19.9358 MA
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MA vs. April estimate of 3.1876 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 3.1676 MA
    • Barley average estimate 6.5 MA vs. April estimate of 6.3106 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 7.0825 MA
    • Flax average estimate 1.7 MA vs. April estimate of 1.715 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 1.035 MA
    • Corn average estimate 3.3 MA vs. April estimate of 3.3688 MA and vs. 2013 estimate of 3.6893
    •  Soybeans average estimate 5.1 MA vs. April estimate of 5.2644 MA and vs. 2013 estimate of 4.5189 MA
  • Position day for July futures is tomorrow . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Ramadan begins June 28th
  • USDA stocks and acreage report on June 30th at 11 am CST
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Early expectations for deliveries are

  • Corn 0
  • Meal 0
  • Beans 0-150
  • Wheat 0-50
  • KC wheat 0-50
  • Bean oil 1,000-2,000

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE