News From The Grain Floor

 

Constantly choosing the lesser of two evils is still choosing evil.
– Jerry Garcia

 

USDA announced 116,000 US sorghum sold to unknown -58K for ‘13/14 shipment and 58K for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 217,400 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 1 ½ at 1226
  • CZ down 2 ½ at 438 ¼
  • WU down 3 ¼ at 577 ½
  • KC WU down 2 ½ at 701 ¼
  • MWU down 1 ½ at 682
  • SMZ up 3.50 at 390.60
  • BOZ down 45 at 4072
  • RRU up 4 at 1373.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 11,192
  • CZ 7,326
  • WU 6,213
  • KC WU 695
  • MWU 99
  • SMZ 5,578
  • BOZ 7,940
  • RRU 13

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil 40-50 lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Crude oil higher. Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver lower

 

Nikkei down .72%

Hang Seng down .06%

Shanghai Index down .42%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 4.0 MB expecting a draw of 1.6 MB
  • Gas a build of 2.2 MB expecting a build of 1.5 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 253,000 expecting a build of 900,000

 

Malaysian palm oil up 20

 

China grain closings = beans down 9, corn up 5, meal down 6, palm oil up 40, and bean oil up 6

 

China seeking new crop US beans

 

China eyeing new crop Brazilian beans . China bought a couple cargoes on Monday for August shipment

 

Colombia seeking soymeal for Sept shipment

 

China sold 15.8% or 425,222 tons of corn at today’s auction. They offered 2.7 MMT of corn. China will hold another corn auction tonight/tomorrow . They will offer 2.29 MMT of corn .

 

China State Council meeting – Headlines from Bloomberg

  • China to improve pricing controls for agricultural products
  • China to promote trials of subsidizing farmers if prices of agricultural products fall below target
  • Trail will start from cotton a soybeans
  • China to add grain warehouse with the capacity of 50.0 MMT in ‘14/15
  • China to add local grain stockpile by 25.0 MMT this year

 

Iraq seeks a least 10K sunflower oil optional origin except for China

 

Indonesian Vegetable Oil Association said Indonesia may cut July palm oil export tax to 10.5% from 12% currently

 

Indonesian Veg Oil Association estimated Indonesia’s first half of 2014 palm oil output at 12.95 MMT down 12% from a year ago

 

Agritrend estimated ‘14/15 Argentine sunflower crop at 3.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 2.0 MMT (lowest in 32 years) .USDA estimated ‘13/14 Argentine sunflower crop at 2.3 MMT and estimated ‘14/15 crop at 2.9 MMT

 

Agritrend estimated ‘14/15 Argentine sunflower area at 1.6 MH vs. ‘13/14 area of 1.3 MH

 

Dec corn contract low is 435. Low overnight was 437 ¾ .

 

175 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 100 out of Bunge Danville IN
  • 40 out of Minnesota Soybean Processors , Brewster MN
  • 35 out of Solae Gibson City IL

 

Mostly favorable US weather . Too wet in northern IA and southern MN . Dry weather in forecast until late Friday/Saturday, 1-3 inches of rains in forecast

 

Early estimates for deliveries Friday night

  • Corn 0
  • Bean oil 1,000 – 2,000
  • Meal 0
  • Beans 0-150
  • Wheat 0-200

 

USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report comes out on Monday June 30th at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters poll, expecting

 

Estimates for 2014 US acreage

  • Corn – (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 91.725 MA , range of estimates are 91.0-92.2 MA. USDA March estimate was 91.691 MA and 2013 final corn acreage was 95.365 MA
  • Beans – (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 82.154 MA, range of estimates are 80.5-84.0 MA. USDA March estimate was 81.493 MA and 2013 final bean acreage was 76.533 MA
  • All wheat – (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.818 MA, range of estimates are 54.8-57.0 MA. USDA March estimate was 55.815 MA and 2013 final all wheat acreage was 56.156 MA
  • Spring wheat – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 11.860 MA, range of estimates are 10.5 -12.2 MA. USDA March estimate was 12.009 MA and 2013 final spring wheat acreage was 11.596 MA
  • Durum wheat – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.790 MA, range of estimates are 1.694-1.900 MA. USDA March estimate was 1.799 MA and 2013 final durum wheat acreage was 1.470 MA

 

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks as of June 1st

  • Wheat – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .598 BB, range of estimates are .560-.633 BB. USDA March 1, 2014 wheat stocks were 1.056 BB and June 1, 2013 wheat stocks were .718 BB
  • Corn – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.722 BB, range of estimates are 3.046-3.950 BB. USDA March 1, 2014 corn stocks were 7.006 BB and June 1, 2013 corn stocks were 2.766 BB
  • Beans – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .378 BB, range of estimates are .334-.440 BB. USDA March 1, 2014 bean stocks were .992 BB and June 1, 2013 bean stocks were .435 BB

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,365,168 open, down 2,559
  • Total beans 608,641 open, up 8,025
  • Total meal 313,310 open, up 777
  • Total bean oil 321,255 open, up 853
  • Total wheat 378,837 open, down 2,329
  • Total KC wheat 138,453 open, down 565

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST . Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.4 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.5 MB
    • Distillates a build of 700K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Stats Canada acreage report comes out on Friday morning. Based on a Bloomberg survey expecting
    • Total wheat acres average estimate 24.370 MA vs. March estimate of 24.766 MA
    • Canola acres average estimate 20.038 MA vs. March estimate of 19.801 MA
    • Barley acres average estimate 6.581 MA vs. March estimate of 6.311 MA
    • Bean acres average estimate 5.125 MA vs. March estimate of 5.264 MA
    • Corn acres average estimate 3.236 MA vs. March estimate of 3.369 MA
    • Oat acres average estimate 3.177 MA vs. March estimate of 3.188 MA
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Ramadan begins June 28th
  • USDA stocks and acreage report on June 30th at 11 am CST – Should have report estimates by this afternoon.
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE