News From The Grain Floor

 

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Anon

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 11 ½ at 1222 ¼
  • CZ down 2 ¾ at 439 ¾
  • WU down 1 ¾ 587 ¼
  • KC WU down 1 ½ at 711 ¼
  • MWU down 1 at 690
  • SMZ down 6.10 at 388.50
  • BOZ up 4 at 4070
  • RRU unchanged at 1378

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 18,680
  • CZ 15,665
  • WU 5,755
  • KC WU 358
  • MWU 157
  • SMZ 8,727
  • BOZ 9,003
  • RRU39

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal 5 -6 lower
  • Bean oil  steady to 10 higher
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Crude, dollar, and stock market lower. Gold and silver higher .

 

Nikkei up .05%

Hang Seng up .33%

Shanghai Index up .47%

 

China grain closings = beans down 24, corn unchanged, meal down 32, palm oil up 26, and bean oil up 58

 

Malaysian palm oil up 3

 

China sold 44,741 tons of beans or 12.6% amount offered at today’s auction. They offered 354,726 tons

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of Brazilian beans yesterday for August shipment

 

Cargill announced it has developed a non-GMO soybean oil

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp seeks 20,000 US corn for August shipment

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp seeks 15,000 US soybeans for August shipment

 

CNGOIC Chinese 2014 crop estimates

  • Corn crop at 223.0 MMT up 2.1% from 2013
  • Corn planting area at 36.7 MH up 1.1% from a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn imports at 3.5 MMT down 12.5% from a year ago
  • 2014 corn demand estimated at 194.0 MMT up 3.8% from a year ago
  • ‘14/15 sorghum imports estimated at 4.0 MMT up 33% from a year ago
  • 2014 wheat output estimated at 122.5 MMT up .5% from a year ago
  • 2014 rice output estimated at 207.0 MMT up 1.9% from a year ago

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week June 14-20th total crush volume at 1,590,900 tons up 2.11% from a week ago
  • For the week June 14-20th total crush capacity utilization at 54.98% up 1.11% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1 – June 20) crush volume at 50,901,888 tons up 20.90% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 – June 20) crush volume at 32,353,091 tons up 19.78% from a year ago
  • As of June 20th total imported bean stocks at 5.9406 MMT up 62,600 tons from a week ago and up 27% from a year ago
  • Estimated June bean imports at 6.3623 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.6 MMT
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 5.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.5 MMT
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 32.57 MMT of grain between July 1st – June 23rd vs. ‘12/13 total of 23.0 MMT

 

Flooding in some parts of Iowa and Minnesota

 

Weather forecaster said six times the normal amount of rains have fallen in parts of the Dakotas and northern Iowa and southern Minnesota over the past 14 days

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

 

Corn

  • Condition 74% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago (expecting down 1-3% from a week ago) and vs. 65% good to excellent a year ago and vs. 68% five year average
    • Minnesota good to excellent conditions down 9%
    • Iowa good to excellent conditions down 4%
    • South Dakota good to excellent conditions down 3%
    • Wisconsin good to excellent conditions down 3%
    • Illinois good to excellent conditions up 2%
    • Indiana good to excellent conditions up 2%
    • Nebraska good to excellent conditions up 2%
    • Texas up 5%
    • Missouri up 4%

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 72% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago (expecting down 2% from a week ago) and vs. 65% a year ago
    • Minnesota down 10%
    • South Dakota down 8%
    • Iowa down 3%
    • Ohio down 2%
    • Missouri up 4%
    • Lousiana up 4%
    • Kentucky up 3%
    • Wisconsin up 2%
    • Kansas up 2%
    • Mississippi up 2%
  • Planting 95% complete (as expected) vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 94% five year average
  • Emerged 90% vs. 83% a week ago and vs. 87% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition 71% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago (as expected) and vs. 70% good to excellent a year ago
  • Emerged 98% vs. 91% a week ago and vs. 95% five year average
  • Headed 10% vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 16% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 30% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (as expected) and vs. 32% good to excellent a year ago
  • Headed 96% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 94% five year average
  • Harvested 33% vs. 16% a week ago and vs. 31% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 68% down 1% from a week ago and vs. 68% a year ago
  • Headed 3% vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 5% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 53% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago and vs. 43% a year ago
  • Squaring 25% vs. 14% a week ago and vs. 27% five year average
  • Setting bolls 3% vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 6% five year average

 

Moving averages

  • Nov bean 50 day 1228 ¾
  • KC WU 200 day 716 ½
  • BOZ 50 day 4056
  • BOZ 100 day 4061
  • BOZ 200 day 4108
  • SMZ 50 day 392.50

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • July corn 167,137 open, down 26,142
  • Total corn 137,058 open, up 5,120
  • July beans 67,850 open, down 15,856
  • Total beans 601,411 open, down 3,399
  • July meal 34,233 open, down 9,081
  • Total meal 315,813 open, down 3,865
  • July bean oil 33,377 open, down 10,446
  • Total bean oil 320,599 open, down 7,125
  • July wheat 36,325 open, down 9,754
  • Total wheat 379,252 open, down 3,142
  • July KC wheat 14,071 open, down 1,622
  • Total KC wheat 139,177 open, up 1,809

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • China’s corn auction is tonight/tomorrow. China will auction a total of 4.99 MMT of corn on Wednesday and Thursday.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services estimate June 1-25th Malaysian palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Stats Canada acreage report comes out on Friday morning. Based on a Bloomberg survey expecting
    • Total wheat acres average estimate 24.370 MA vs. March estimate of 24.766 MA
    • Canola acres average estimate 20.038 MA vs. March estimate of 19.801 MA
    • Barley acres average estimate 6.581 MA vs. March estimate of 6.311 MA
    • Bean acres average estimate 5.125 MA vs. March estimate of 5.264 MA
    • Corn acres average estimate 3.236 MA vs. March estimate of 3.369 MA
    • Oat acres average estimate 3.177 MA vs. March estimate of 3.188 MA
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Ramadan begins June 28th
  • USDA stocks and acreage report on June 30th at 11 am CST – Should have report estimates by this afternoon.
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE