News From The Grain Floor

If I had an hour to solve a problem and my life depended on it, I would use the first 55 minutes determining the proper question to ask, for once I knew the proper question, I could solve the problem in less than five minutes.”

– Albert Einstein

 

No USDA announcement this morning.

 

Egypt GASC bought 180,000 tons of wheat on Saturday 60,000 from Russian and 120,000 from Romania for Aug shipment

 

Saudi Arabia bought 780,000 tons of hard and soft wheat from the EU , North America, South America , and or Australia for Sept-Nov shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 10 at 1241 ½
  • CZ unchanged at 452
  • WU up 3 at 596 ¼
  • KC WU up 5 ½ at 723 ¼
  • MWU up 5 at 699 ¾
  • SMZ up 1.20 at 400.10
  • BOZ up 57 at 4060
  • RRU up 3.50 at 1379

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,101
  • CZ 16,441
  • WU 5,763
  • KC WU652
  • MWU 165
  • SMZ 3,586
  • BOZ 7,152
  • RRU 108

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 8-11 higher
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil 50-60 higher
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, stock market, and dollar lower

 

Nikkei up .13%

Hang Seng down 1.74%

Shanghai index down .11%

 

China’s HSBC June flash PMI at 50.8 (7 month high) vs. May final of 49.4

 

China grain closings = beans up 28, corn up 4, meal up 27, palm oil up 80, and bean oil up 74

 

China’s May imports – General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat 225,580 tons down 20.34% from a year ago
  • Barley 665,745 tons up 156.57% from a year ago
  • Corn 79,264 tons up 18.99% from a year ago
    • 64,530 tons from the US up 4.02% from a year ago
  • Rice 270,982 tons up 68.78% from a year ago
  • Soybean 5,971,117 tons up 17.15% from a year ago
    • 5,318,345 tons from Brazil up 8.46% from a year ago
    • 651,752 tons from the US up 245% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 651,205 tons up 37.76% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 108,117 tons down 38.4% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 41,880 tons up 962% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 73,845 tons down 29.47% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 2,259 tons up 10.32% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 408,646 tons down 13.81% from a year ago

 

 

China’s Jan-May imports – General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat 2,442,484 tons up 107.39% from a year ago
  • Barley 2,103,212 tons up 154.68% from a year ago
  • Corn 1,349,959 tons down 10.84% from a year ago
    • 932,599 tons from the US down 38.09% from a year ago
  • Rice 1,083,641 tons down 6.09% from a year ago
  • Beans 27,819,912 tons up 35.28% from a year ago
    • 10,313,741 tons from Brazil up 35.1% from a year ago
    • 16,913,549 tons from the US up 35.82% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 2,344,647 tons up 41.66% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 482,760 tons down 35.65% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 117,690 tons up 1240% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 369,589 tons up 13.82% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 14,260 tons up 34.7% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 2,469,686 tons down 3.17% from a year ago

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey China’s ‘13/14 palm oil imports estimated at 5.9 MMT down 11% from a year ago and vs. USDA estimate of 6.3 MMT

 

Trade talk on Friday of a larger 2014 ethanol mandate.

 

Favorable weather in Russia, China, and Europe this week.

 

Rains in forecast early this week in US corn belt. Dry weather by the end of week.

 

Mostly favorable weather in US this week.

 

220 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

  • 30 out of Bunge Decatur IN
  • 190 out of Cargill Creve Coeur IL

 

On Friday 11,750 July meal contracts traded electronically in the last 5 minutes of trade( Which was 14% of the day’s trading volume). 7,000 July meal contracts traded in the last minute of trade on Friday (Which was 8% of the day’s trading volume).  1,600 July/Dec meal spreads traded in the last minute of trade on Friday.

 

Moving averages

  • KC WU 200 day 716 ½
  • BOZ 50 day 4058
  • BOZ 100 day 4058
  • BOZ 200 day 4110

 

July options expired on Friday. Option exception summary

  • In the money abandonments
    • 688 July meal 460 puts (July meal settled at 459.20 on Friday)
    • 20 July KC 720 calls (July KC settled at 720 ¾ on Friday)
    • 250 July bean 1420 calls (July beans settled at 1415 ¾ on Friday)
    • 10 July wheat 585 calls (July wheat settled at 585 ¼ on Friday)
    • 14 July rice 1460 calls (July rice settled at 1463.50 on Friday)
  • Out of the money exercises
    • 129 July meal 460 calls (July meal settled at 459.20 on Friday)
    • 504 July Dec corn CSO even puts (July/Dec corn spreads settled at 1 ¼ Friday)
    • 9 July oat 340 calls (July oats settled at 340 on Friday)
    • 45 July oat 340 puts (July oats settled at 340 on Friday)
    • 218 July bean 1420 calls (July bean settled at 1415 ¾ on Friday)
    • 108 July wheat 585 puts (July wheat settled at 585 ¼ on Friday)
    • 14 July short dated soybean 1230 puts (Nov beans settled at 1231 ½ on Friday)
    • 10 July/Sept wheat CSO -.08 puts (July /Sept wheat spread settled at -8)
    • 6 July/Sept corn CSO 5 puts (July/Sept corn settled at 5)
    • 125 July/Sept corn CSO 5 calls (July/Sept corn settled at 5)

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of June 17th . Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 52,849
  • KC wheat long 4,026
  • Corn long 70,437
  • Beans long 1,074
  • Meal long 26,541
  • Bean oil short 36,448

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,387,138 open, down 9,832
  • Total KC wheat 138,235 open, down 650
  • Total soybeans 608,906 open, down 5,038
  • Total meal 328,788 open, up 5,871
  • Total bean oil 329,366 open , down 8,509
  • Total wheat 397,296 open, down 5,924

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST  Expecting
    • Bean planting to be 94-96% complete vs. 92% a week ago
    • Bean conditions steady to 2% higher than a week ago
    • Corn conditions 2-3% lower than a week ago
  • China to auction 352,000 tons of beans from reserves on Monday
  • China to auction a total of 4.99 MMT of corn from reserves on Tuesday and Wednesday
  • Weekly API energy report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • Stats Canada acreage report comes out on Friday morning.
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Ramadan begins June 28th
  • USDA stocks and acreage report on June 30th at 11 am CST
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE