News From The Grain Floor

Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon and the truth.”

— Siddhartha Gautama, the Buddha

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 3 ¼ at 1412 ¼
  • SX   up 2 at 1215
  • CN  up 2 ½ at 444
  • CZ up 2 ½ at 442
  • WN up 6 at 593
  • WU  up 5 ¾ at 602
  • KC WN up 8 at 735 ¾
  • KC WU   up 8 at 735 ¼
  • MWN  up 6 ¾ at 704
  • MWU up 5 ½ at 707
  • SMN up 1.90 at 455.20
  • SMZ  up 1.90 at 392.30
  • BON down 15 at 3998
  • BOZ down 14 at 4000
  • RRN up 8.50 at 1487
  • RRU down 4 at 1377

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 5,062
  • SX   6,131
  • CN 9,082
  • CZ  5,800
  • WN  6,021
  • WU   5,827
  • KC WN 1,019
  • KC WU   881
  • MWN  96
  • MWU  106
  • SMN 2,742
  • SMZ 1,812
  • BON 6,980
  • BOZ  4,852
  • RRN 89
  • RRU 89

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • KC wheat 7-9 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 6-8 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 5-10 lower

 

Crude and dollar lower. Gold, silver and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 1.62%

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai Index down 1.6%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at -6K to 312K    as expected

 

Brazil is on holiday today. Markets will reopen tomorrow .

 

China grain closings = beans up 11, corn down 1, meal up 21, palm oil up 16, and bean oil up 14.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 19.

 

China held another corn auction overnight. China sold a total of 918,203 tons of corn over the past 2 days at auction . They offered a combined 5.0 MMT of corn the last 2 days

 

Philippines bought 160,000 tons of US meal for Nov- Jan shipment

 

Japan bought 106,248 tons of food wheat for July – Aug shipment . Breakdown

  • 38,593 tons of western white US wheat
  • 36,505 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 31,150 tons of Australian white wheat

 

UAE bought 120,000 tons of milling wheat from the Black Sea region for Sept – Dec shipment

 

Saudi Arabia seeks 715,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Sept- Nov shipment

 

Kansas Wheat Commission and Kansas Association of Wheat Growers said disappointing harvest yields are being reported in HRW wheat growing areas in the US Plains.

 

Hearing Argentina cut the export tax on SME again to 9.4% from 21% – not confirmed

 

Argentine Ag Min said Argentina farmers have sold 41.61% of their ‘13/14 corn crop vs. 64.88% a year ago

 

Argentine Ag Min said Argentina farmers have sold 56.65% of their 2014 wheat crop vs. 90.95% a year ago

 

Argentine Ag Min said Argentina farmers have sold 38.43% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 46.17% a year ago

 

Russia government estimated 2014 grain crop at 97.0 MMT

 

Russia government estimated 2014 grain exports at 22.0 MMT vs. 19.0 MMT in 2013

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 31.817 MMT of grain between July 1st – June 18th

 

Agritel estimated 2014 European wheat average yield at 5.81 TPH vs. previous estimate of 5.179 TPH

 

Some concerns about flooding in western Iowa near the Missouri river

 

Flooded fields in eastern Nebraska

 

Heavy rains may have caused some damage to the HRW wheat crop in the US

 

Heavy rains in Alberta this week may damage some canola crops.

 

Rains are moving east to Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

 

An analysts said 600,000 to 1.0 million acres of canola may not be planted in Manitoba .

 

45 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat – ‘14/15 372,600 ‘15/16 8,200 (expecting 350-550,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 109,000 ‘14/15 78,900 ( expecting 350-650,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘13/14 97,900, ‘14/15 285,800 (expecting old crop -100,000 to +100,000 ; new crop 350-550,000 tons)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 54,700 ‘14/15 127,800 (expecting old crop 0-100,000 tons ; new crop 0-150,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 10,300 (expecting 0-35,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 372,600 MT for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were primarily for Brazil (123,100 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (85,200 MT), Indonesia (71,000 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (37,800 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (33,000 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from Panama), and Japan (32,900 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (59,400 MT), Panama (29,700 MT), and Nigeria (5,600 MT). Net sales of 8,200 MT for delivery in the 2015/2016 marketing year were for Mexico. Exports of 523,800 MT were primarily to Brazil (126,100 MT), the Philippines (86,600 MT), Mexico (81,400 MT), China (63,000 MT), Nigeria (41,400 MT), South Korea (34,000 MT), and Venezuela (33,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 109,000 MT for 2013/2014 were down 73 percent from the previous week and 79 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (168,300 MT, including 91,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 9,200 MT), Saudi Arabia (76,600 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (64,200 MT), South Korea (59,600 MT, including 57,800 MT switched from Japan and decreases of 800 MT), and Peru (47,200 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (396,900 MT), Colombia (44,200 MT), and Costa Rica (1,100 MT). Net sales of 78,900 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Mexico (40,800 MT), unknown destinations (37,500 MT) and South Korea (600 MT). Exports of 1,123,000 MT were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (357,900 MT), Mexico (258,700 MT), Taiwan (100,600 MT), South Korea (85,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (80,100 MT), Egypt (71,300 MT), and Colombia (67,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 97,900 MT for 2013/2014 were up 13 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (41,300 MT, including 29,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (38,000 MT), Indonesia (16,900 MT), Taiwan (6,400 MT) and Vietnam (3,100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Colombia (11,100 MT) and unknown destinations (1,000 MT). Net sales of 285,800 MT for 2014/2015 were for unknown destinations (185,000 MT), China (90,500 MT), Mexico (10,000 MT), and South Korea (1,500 MT). Decreases were reported for Japan (1,200 MT). Exports of 192,200 MT were up 31 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (89,200 MT), Japan (48,000 MT), Taiwan (29,600 MT), Indonesia (13,200 MT), and Cuba (5,500 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 54,700 MT for 2013/2014 were down 8 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (63,000 MT, including 22,500 MT switched from Panama, 15,000 MT switched unknown destinations, and decreases of 5,200 MT), Mexico (15,800 MT), Canada (12,600 MT), Honduras (9,900 MT, including 9,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Dominican Republic (2,700 MT), and New Guinea (1,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (25,600 MT), Panama (21,100 MT), and Ecuador (4,500 MT). Net sales of 127,800 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (77,400 MT), Indonesia (31,000 MT), and El Salvador (17,000 MT). Exports of 151,100 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (49,600 MT), Mexico (35,100 MT), Canada (21,100 MT), the Philippines (20,900 MT), Honduras (9,900 MT), and the Dominican Republic (5,300 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 10,300 MT for 2013/2014 were down 86 percent from the previous week and 69 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Dominican Republic (5,200 MT), Mexico (3,400 MT), Canada (1,100 MT), Nicaragua (300 MT), and Belgium (200 MT). Exports of 7,000 MT were up 57 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), Mexico (2,100 MT), Canada (400 MT), and Nicaragua (300 MT).

 

Strategie Grain estimates

  • ‘14/15 EU 28 soft wheat crop estimated at 139.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 137.4 MMT and up 2% from ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 EU 28 barley crop estimated at 55.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 56.0 MMT and down 7% from ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 EU 28 corn crop estimated at 65.9 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and up 2% from ‘13/14

 

July options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST. I will send out open interest in options this morning.

 

Moving averages

  • SN 100 day 1417 ½
  • SX 50 day 1228 ¼
  • KC WN 100 day 728 ¾
  • KC WU 100 day 734 ½
  • KC WU 200 day 716 ½
  • MWN 100 day 708 ½
  • MWN 200 day 709 ½
  • BON 50 day 4099
  • BOZ 50 day 4064
  • BOZ 100 day 4053
  • SMN 100 day 458.10
  • SMZ 50 day 391.70

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,399,675 open, down 6,505
  • Total beans 618,396 open, up 1,508
  • Total meal 323,723 open, up 4,785
  • Total bean oil 342,281 open, up 1,958
  • Total wheat 401,918 open, up 393
  • Total KC wheat 139,145 open, up 118

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +110 BCF
  • Argentina on holiday tomorrow
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out Friday with their June 1-20th palm oil Malaysian export estimates
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th . Options expire on the close
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Ramadan begins June 28th
  • USDA stocks and acreage report on June 30th at 11 am CST
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE