News From The Grain Floor

“Profitable bookstores sell books. Unprofitable book sellers store books.”

– Mokokoma Mokhonoana

 

USDA announced 134,500 tons of new crop US corn sold to Mexico.

 

Top step (spot month) today .

  • September Chicago, KC , and Minneapolis wheat
  • December corn
  • December oats
  • November beans
  • December soymeal
  • December bean oil
  • September rice

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 8 ½ at 1413 ¼
  • SX down 5 ¼ at 1211 ¾
  • CN down 1 ½ at 439 ½
  • CZ down 1 at 441
  • WN up 1 ½ at 582 ½
  • WU up ¾ at 492
  • KC WN down ¾ at 707 ½
  • KC WU down a ¼ at 708 ¼
  • MWN up ¾ at 680 ¾
  • MWU up 1 ½ at 687 ¾
  • SMN down 2.20 at 460.20
  • SMZ down 2.20 at 390.50
  • BON down 3 at 3947
  • BOZ down 7 at 3954
  • RRN up .50 at 1467
  • RRU up 4 at 1419

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 9,798
  • SX 10,634
  • CN 10,931
  • CZ 7,978
  • WN 5,698
  • WU 4,992
  • KC WN 596
  • KC WU 749
  • MWN 148
  • MWU 128
  • SMN 4,511
  • SMZ 2,654
  • BON 5,138
  • BOZ 4,482
  • RRN 23
  • RRU 18

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady better
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 lower
  • Bean oil  steady lower
  • Rice steady better

 

Dollar higher . Crude, gold, silver, and stock market lower.

 

Nikkei down .28%

Hang Seng down .42%

Shanghai Index down .94%

 

FOMC two day policy meeting begins today. Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST.

 

China grain closings = beans down 19, corn up 9, meal down 30, palm oil down 52, and bean oil down 48

 

Malaysian palm oil up 3.

 

China sold 72,852 tons or 20.3% of beans at today’s auction . They offered 358,558 tons of beans

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week June 9 – 13th total crush volume at 1,558,000 tons up 12.91% from a week ago
  • For the week June 9-13th total crush capacity utilization at 53.87% up 5.56% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013 – June 13, 2014) crush volume at 49,310,988 tons up 21.60% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1-June 13) crush volume at 30,762,191 tons up 19.97% from a year ago
  • As of June 13th total imported bean stocks at 5,878 MMT down 16,810 tons from a week ago and up 31.75% from a year ago
  • Estimated June bean imports at 6.3623 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.3 MMT
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 5.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.2 MMT
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.5 MMT

 

Iran bought 55,000 tons of Russian wheat

 

Pakistan bought 55,000 tons of Rapeseed from the Ukraine for July shipment over the past 2 weeks

 

Tunisia seeks 159,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for July-Sept shipment

 

Philippines seeks 180,200 tons of optional origin feed wheat for Sept – Jan shipment

 

Philippines seeks 133,900 tons of US or Argentine origin soymeal for Nov – Dec shipment

 

Vietnam seeks soymeal for September shipment

 

Indonesia seeking meal US origin is expected

 

Thailand seeking meal, US origin is expected

 

Japan seeks 106,248 tons of food wheat for July – Aug shipment . Breakdown

  • 38,593 tons of western white US wheat
  • 36,505 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 31,150 tons of Australian white wheat

 

US lawmakers will have a congressional hearing today on concerns about feed and food imports from China. – Reuters.

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey Indonesia’s May palm oil stocks at 2.2 MMT (8 month high) up 10% from April

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey Indonesia’s May palm oil exports at 1.48 MMT up 7.2% from April

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey Indonesia’s May palm oil output at 2.3 MMT down 2% from April

 

Oil World estimated 2014 global biodiesel output at 29.1 MMT up 8% from a year ago.

 

ABARES estimated Australian ‘141/5 wheat exports at 18.66 MMT vs. previous estimate of 19.1 MMT

 

Russia Ag Min said Russian grain exports between July 1st – June 11th at 24.983 MMT up 61.1% from a year ago

 

Russia Ag Min said as of June 16th Russia grain planting is 98% complete on 31.3 MH vs. 30.7 MH a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s 2014 total spring grain area at 31.8 MH

 

Russia Statistics Service said Russia exported June 1-11th grain exports at 408,000 tons

 

Some analysts / traders expecting above trend line yields for US corn.

 

Head scab wheat (Fusarium head blight) in Southern IL wheat.

 

Mostly favorable crop weather in Midwest

 

Moving averages

  • July bean 100 day 1414 ½
  • Nov bean 50 day 1228
  • KC July wheat 200 day 709
  • KC Sept wheat 200 day 716 ½
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 4068
  • Dec bean oil 100 day 4049
  • July meal 100 day 457.20
  • Dec meal 50 day 391.30

 

Weekly US export inspections from yesterday

  • Wheat = 396,437 tons, expecting 400-525,000 tons
  • Corn = 1.1 M tons, expecting 950,0000 – 1.2 M tons
  • Beans= 215,619 tons, expecting 75-150,000 tons

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

Corn

  • Condition 76% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago (expecting steady to up 2%) and vs. 64% good to excellent a year ago
  • Emerged 97% vs. 92% a week ago and vs., 96% five year average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 73% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago (expecting steady to up 2%) and vs. 64% a year ago
  • Planting 92% complete (expecting 92-94% complete) vs. 87% a week ago and vs. 90% five year average
  • Emerged 93% vs. 71% a week ago and vs. 77% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition 72% good to excellent up 1% a week ago (expecting up 1-2%) and vs. 68% good to excellent a year ago
  • Emerged 91% vs. 80% a week ago and vs. 90% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 30% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (as expected) and vs. 31% good to excellent a year ago
  • Headed 92% vs. 86% a week ago and vs. 90% five year average
  • Harvested 16% vs. 9% a week ago and vs. 20% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 69% unchanged from a week ago and vs. 68% a year ago
  • Emerged 99% vs. 93% a week ago and vs. 96% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 51% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 42% a year ago
  • Planted 95% vs. 89% a week ago and vs. 96% five year average
  • Squaring 14% vs. 8% a week ago and vs. 16% five year average

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn sold 8K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Option players from yesterday

Corn:

ICAP bot 750 Z 470-510 call spreads

RJO sold 600 N 440 puts

Macquarie bot 3000 Z 420 puts/sold 6000 Z 380 puts/sold 3000 Z 550 calls

RJO sold 500 N 400 puts

 

Beans:

ABN bot 600 H 1200 puts/sold 1200 H 1100 puts

ABN bot 500 X 1140-1040 put spreads

ABN bot 500 Q 1380-1350 put spreads

Bunge bot 500 F 1140 puts/bot 125 SF

RJO sold 500 X 1340 calls

Rosenthal bot 700 U 1300 puts/bot 700 X 1160 puts/sold 700 Q 1400 puts

 

Wheat:

FI sold 1000 Q 595 puts

Rosenthal bot 2000 U 540 puts/sold 1000 U 590 puts

Mizuho bot 800 U 550 puts/sold 400 Q 600 puts

ICAP bot 500 U 600 straddles

Macquarie bot 500 Q 660 calls/sold 750 Q 630 calls

ABN bot 400 U 630 calls

 

Meal:

JPM bot 1000 Q 450-430 put spreads

 

Oil:

RJO sold 500 Q 43 calls

RJO sold 500 N 37 puts

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,418,874 open, up 2,299
  • Total beans 620,910 open, down 4,306
  • Total meal 323,026 open, down 5,583
  • Total bean oil 341,895 open, down 6,211
  • Total wheat 401,399 open, down 1,989
  • Total KC wheat 138,577 open, up 366

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out Friday with their June 1-20th palm oil Malaysian export estimates
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th . Options expire on the close
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Ramadan begins June 28th
  • USDA stocks and acreage report on June 30th at 11 am CST
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE