News From The Grain Floor

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.”

– VERBAL KINT

 

No USDA announcement this morning

 

NOPA May crush report comes out on today at 11 am CST . Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • Crush  = average estimate 126.984 MB , range of estimates are 120.55-134.793 MB. April crush was 132.667 MB and May 2013 crush was 122.631 MB
  • Bean oil stocks =  average estimate 1.977 B lbs. range of estimates are 1.918- 2.030 B lbs. April bean oil stocks were 2.058 B and May 2013 bean oil stocks were 2.469 B
  • Meal exports = no estimate is given. April exports were 670,455 tons and May 2013 meal exports were 425,742 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 5 at 1430 ¾
  • CN up 1 ¾ at 448 ¾
  • WN up 6 ¾ at 592 ¾
  • KC WN up 6 ½ at 719 ¾
  • MWN up 5 ½ at 689 ¾
  • SMN up 2.80 at 470.70
  • BON down 26 at 3943
  • RRN up 7.50 at 1458

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 10,032
  • CN 7,866
  • WN 4,849
  • KC WN 440
  • MWN 43
  • SMN 3,706
  • BON 6,698
  • RRN 55

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC wheat 5-7 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 lower
  • Rice 6-8 higher

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Gold, silver, and crude oil higher.

 

Nikkei down 1.11%

Hang Seng down .08%

Shanghai Index up .73%

 

Tensions in Iraq continue.

 

China grain closings = beans up 38, corn up 6, meal up 28, palm oil up 36, and bean oil up 52.

 

Malaysia palm oil up 3.

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s June 1-15th palm oil exports at 586,701 tons down 8.3% from a month ago.

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s June 1-15th palm oil exports at 589,748 tons down 7.8% from a month ago

 

Analysts were expecting palm oil exports to be higher on the month due to demand increasing ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Malaysia’s government will cut July palm oil export tax to 5.0% from 5.5% currently.

 

Solvent Extractor’s Association of India said India imported 654,255 tons of palm oil in May up 22% from April .

 

Solvent Extractor’s Association of India said India imported 174,209 tons of bean oil in May up 54% from April

 

Solvent Extractor’s Association of India said India imported 178,753 tons of sunflower oil in May up 5% from April .

 

Solvent Extractor’s Association of India said India imported 1.03 MMT of total veg oils in May up 24% from April

 

Oil World said El Nino is giving support to palm oil prices.

 

China’s crush margins are nearing breakeven

 

Reports China bought up to 10 cargoes of old crop Brazilian beans last week for June – August shipment

 

Reports China bought 1 cargo of Argentine beans for June shipment

 

Reports China was showing interest in new crop US beans last week

 

Lebanon bought 15,000 tons of wheat from the Ukraine for July-Aug shipment

 

Taiwan seeks 96,180 tons of US milling wheat for Aug-Sept shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of feed barley optional origin for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Australian farmers have sold about 10% of their new crop wheat vs. 30% average.

 

Australian farmers are holding back wheat sales on fears El Nino will hurt yields.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 31.67 MMT of grain between July 1st – June 13th vs. total ‘12/13 grain exports of 23.0 MMT

 

Ukraine state statistics service said as of June 1st Ukraine grain stocks totaled 6.7 MMT up 9% from a year ago

 

Kazakhstan State Statistics Agency said Kazakhstan exported 1.765 MMT of wheat between Jan – April up 36.4% from a year ago

 

Egypt’s supplies ministry said Egypt has bought 3.65 MMT of local wheat so far and will stop buying domestic wheat June 20th.

 

Egypt’s supplies ministry said Egypt wheat stocks are sufficient for the next six months.

 

Moving averages

  • SN 100 day 1413
  • KC WN 200 day 709

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,415,715 open, up 2,466
  • Total beans 625,793 open, up 2,153
  • Total meal 328,649 open, down 5,918
  • Total bean oil 348,152 open, down 3,596
  • Total wheat 403,268 open, down 3,360
  • Total KC wheat 138,207 open, down 533

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting
    • Corn condition steady to 2% higher good to excellent
    • Bean condition steady to 2% higher good to excellent
    • Bean planting 92-94% complete
    • Spring wheat condition 1-3% higher good to excellent
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting starts tomorrow
  • US lawmakers call a congressional hearing on concerns about food and feed imports from China for June 17th. – Reuters
  • Tomorrow Sept Chicago , KC , and Minneapolis wheat and rice will go top step (spot month) Dec corn , meal, bean oil, and  oats will go top step, Nov beans will go top step
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th . Options expire on the close
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Ramadan begins June 28th
  • USDA stocks and acreage report on June 30th at 11 am CST
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE