News From The Grain Floor

 

No matter how rich you become, how famous or powerful, when you die the size of your funeral will still pretty much depend on the weather.

Michael Pritchard

 

Informa comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST with US 2014 acreage and US production estimates . Previous acreage estimates from Informa and USDA 2014 balance sheet US production estimates are below

  • US corn acreage previously estimated at 91.6 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 91.7 MA
  • US bean acreage previously estimated at 82.1 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 81.5 MA
  • US all wheat acreage previously estimated at 56.1 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 55.8 MA
  • US cotton acreage previously estimated at 10.21 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 10.9 MA
  • US balance sheet 2014 US bean crop estimated at 3.635 BB
  • US balance sheet 2014 US bean yield estimated at 45.2 BPA
  • US balance sheet 2014 US corn crop estimated at 13.935 BB
  • US balance sheet 2014 US corn yield estimated at 165.3 BPA

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 5 ½ at 1420 ¾
  • CN up 3 ½ at 447 ½
  • WN up 2 ½ at 587 ¾
  • KC WN up 4 ¾ at 710 ¼
  • MWN up 3 ½ at 685 ½
  • SMN up 2.90 at 472.10
  • BON up 36 at 3894
  • RRN up 1.50 at 1443.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 13,149
  • CN 14,895
  • WN 7,470
  • KC WN 931
  • MWN 232
  • SMN 4,964
  • BON 6,587
  • RRN 94

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 4-6 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 higher
  • Bean oil  30-40 higher
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Dollar, stock market, and silver higher. Gold and crude lower.

 

Nikkei up .82%

Hang Seng up .61%

Shanghai Index up .91%

 

Tensions in Iraq continue.

 

China grain closings = beans down 14, corn down 2, meal down 36, palm oil up 46, and bean oil up 40.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 26.

 

Yesterday Egypt GASC bought 180,000 tons of wheat for July shipment.  120,000 tons from Romania and 60,000 tons from Russia. (yesterday’s afternoon letter I wrote they only bought 60,000 tons from Romania) .

 

Thailand bought 45,000 Argentine meal for Oct shipment

 

Indonesia bought 100,000 tons of Argentine corn for Aug shipment this week

 

Malaysia seeking corn for Sept shipment

 

Reports = China bought some new crop US beans yesterday

 

China margins are somewhat improving

 

China held 2 corn auctions this week. They sold 1,762,604 tons or 35% of corn out of the 5 MMT they offered

 

Some analysts were saying yesterday that July beans are acting like we have lost the Chinese pricing underneath the market

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly Argentine crop progress report from yesterday

  • Wheat plantings are 20.1% complete vs. 11.9% a week ago and vs. 30% a year ago
  • Estimated 2014 wheat area at 4.3 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn harvest is 41.6% complete vs. 38.5% a week ago and vs. 68.5% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 25.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.0 MMT
  • Bean harvest is 88.1% complete vs. 80.6% a week ago and vs. 98.9% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 55.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Bloomberg survey estimated ‘14/15 China wheat imports estimated at 3.5 MMT vs. 7.0 MMT in ‘13/14

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s 2014 wheat crop at 122.6 MMT up 880,000 tons from a year ago

 

FAO estimated China’s 2014 wheat crop at a record high 122.6 MMT vs. 121.72 MMT a year ago

 

FAO estimated China’s 2014 rice crop at 207.44 MMT vs. 203.29 MMT a year ago

 

FAO estimated China’s 2014 corn crop at 219.0 MMT vs. 217.4 MMT a year ago

 

FAO estimated China’s ‘13/14  grain imports at 22.09 MMT vs. 10.63 MMT in ‘12/13

 

FAO estimated ‘13/14 China wheat imports at 8.5 MMT vs. ‘12/13 imports of 5.6 MMT

 

FAO estimated ‘13/14 corn imports at 5.5 MMT

 

India analysts estimated India’s ‘13/14 corn exports at 3.5-3.7 MMT vs. 4.7 MMT a year ago

 

19 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Andersons Maumee OH

 

91 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 35 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD
  • 21 out of Cargill Ackley IA
  • 35 out of Solae Gibson City IL

 

US Midwest weather forecast remains favorable.

 

Goldman Sachs roll ended yesterday.

 

Moving averages

  • SN 100 day 1411 ¼
  • CN 50 day 489 ¼
  • KCWN 200 day 709

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn bought 5K
  • Beans sold 9K
  • Meal sold 5K
  • Bean oil bought 1K

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,414,024 open , up 7,566
  • Total beans 624,740 open, down 2,677
  • Total meal 335,184 open, up 3,781
  • Total bean oil 351,910 open, up 5,646
  • Total wheat 406,890 open, up 88
  • Total KC wheat 138,795 open, up 226

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Monday June 16th with their Malaysian June 1-15th palm oil export estimates.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • NOPA May crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST . Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Crush  = average estimate 126.984 MB , range of estimates are 120.55-134.793 MB. April crush was 132.667 MB and May 2013 crush was 122.631 MB
    • Bean oil stocks =  average estimate 1.977 B lbs. range of estimates are 1.918- 2.030 B lbs. April bean oil stocks were 2.058 B and May 2013 bean oil stocks were 2.469 B
    • Meal exports = no estimate is given. April exports were 670,455 tons and May 2013 meal exports were 425,742 tons
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST . Expecting
    • Corn condition steady to 2% higher good to excellent
    • Bean condition steady to 2% higher good to excellent
    • Bean planting 92-94% complete
    • Spring wheat condition 1-3% higher good to excellent
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting starts on Tuesday
  • On Tuesday Sept Chicago , KC , and Minneapolis wheat and rice will go top step (spot month) Dec corn , meal, bean oil, and  oats will go top step, Nov beans will go top step,
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th . Options expire on the close
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • USDA stocks and acreage report on June 30th at 11 am CST
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE

 

Thank you,