News From The Grain Floor

 

No wise man ever wished to be younger.

Jonathan Swift

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for July shipment. Should have results from this tender sometime this morning.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 6 ¼ at 1451 ¾
  • CN up a ½ at 441 ½
  • WN up 1 at 590 ¼
  • KC WN up a ¼ at 706
  • MWN down 1 ½ at 682 ½
  • SMN up .80 at 483.10
  • BON up 37 at 3879
  • RRN down 9.50 at 1403

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 11,995
  • CN 8,555
  • WN 5,720
  • KC WN 1,708
  • MWN 111
  • SMN 4,053
  • BON 7,621
  • RRN 122

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-2 lower
  • Meal  .50-1.00 higher
  • Bean oil  30-40 higher
  • Rice  7-10 lower

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Gold, silver, and crude oil higher .

 

Nikkei down .637%

Hang Seng down .34%

Shanghai Index down .155%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +4K to 317K expecting +310K

 

Military/political tensions in Iraq, may cause disruptions to crude oil supplies.

 

China grain closings = beans up 6, corn up 3, meal up 4, palm down 40, and bean oil down 38

 

Palm oil up 24

 

South Korea NOFI seeks 140,000 tons of optional origin corn for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Japan bought 25,940 tons of US western white wheat , 24,490 tons of US HRW wheat , 26,880 tons of Canada western red spring wheat, and 31,995 tons of Australian white wheat for August shipment . bought a total of 109,305 tons of wheat

 

Jordan bought 50,000 tons of wheat optional origin for October shipment

 

Macquarie said USDA’s ‘13/14 China corn import estimate is too optimistic. USDA estimated ‘13/14 China corn imports at 4.5 MMT yesterday. Between Oct – April China has only imported 2.6 MMT of corn.

 

Macquarie estimated 2014 US bean crop at 3.682 BB

 

Grain Industry Association of Western Australia estimated 2014 wheat area at 4.5 MH vs. previous estimate of 4.4 MH , and estimated total crop planting at 7.3 MH

 

Argentine port workers lifted port strike yesterday.

 

IOI Corp (world’s second largest palm oil producer) said El Nino could reduce global palm oil output by up to 12%

 

149 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Creve Coeur IL

 

25 meal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon . 17 out of ADM Des Moines Iowa and 8 out of Incobrasa Industries LTD Gilman IL

 

Heat wave in northern and central India is delaying summer crop plantings

 

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll.

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat – ‘13/14 – 75,700 ‘14/15 570,100 (expecting 250-450,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 409,700 ‘14/15 105,500 (expecting ‘13/14 0-250,000 ‘14/15 50-250,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘13/14 86,700 ‘14/15 403,300 (expecting ‘13/14 – 100,000 to +100,000 ; ‘14/15 300-500,000 tons)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 59,500 ‘14/15 10,800 (expecting ‘13/14 0-125,000 ; ‘14/15 50-150,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ’13/14 71,800 (expecting 0-70,000 tons )

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales for the 2014/2015 marketing year, which began June 1, totaled 570,100 metric tons. Increases reported for Brazil (167,600 MT), Mexico (100,100 MT), Nigeria (68,800 MT), Japan (53,900 MT), and Indonesia (48,300 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (74,600 MT) and Trinidad (2,700 MT). A total of 2,120,600 MT in sales were carried over from the 2013/2014 marketing year, which ended May 31. Exports for the period ending May 31 of 150,400 MT brought accumulated exports to 30,113,000 MT, up 14 percent from the prior year’s total of 26,348,100 MT. The primary destinations were Brazil (36,700 MT), Mexico (27,900 MT), Colombia (26,700 MT), Nigeria (25,600 MT), and Venezuela (21,700 MT). Exports for June 1-5 totaled 328,500 MT, with Brazil (64,100 MT), Japan (55,100 MT), Indonesia (47,300 MT), Taiwan (30,300 MT), and South Korea (28,500 MT) being the primary destinations.
  • Corn – Net sales of 409,700 MT for 2013/2014 were down 26 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (183,900 MT, including 79,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 24,100 MT), Egypt (154,000 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (120,500 MT), Vietnam (55,300 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,700 MT), and Colombia (55,000 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 28,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (241,800 MT), Guatemala (11,200 MT), and South Korea (1,200 MT). Net sales of 105,500 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (100,400 MT) and Nicaragua (5,000 MT). Exports of 1,070,500 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (318,500 MT), Mexico (197,700 MT), Egypt (119,800 MT), Taiwan (83,800 MT), Colombia (71,300 MT), South Korea (66,900 MT), and Vietnam (55,300 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 86,700 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Indonesia (46,500 MT, including 25,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (41,500 MT), Taiwan (14,800 MT), Vietnam (9,800 MT) and the Philippines (9,200 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (40,300 MT). Net sales of 403,300 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (172,000 MT), unknown destinations (119,700 MT), Japan (27,400 MT), and Canada (27,200 MT). Exports of 147,100 MT were down 31 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (56,900 MT), Indonesia (35,600 MT), Japan (24,100 MT), Venezuela (11,100 MT), and Taiwan (6,800 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 59,500 MT for 2013/2014 were down 10 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (16,600 MT), Japan (7,900 MT, including 6,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Dominican Republic (6,900 MT, including 6,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT), Sri Lanka (6,300 MT), unknown destinations (6,100 MT), Jamaica (5,000 MT), and El Salvador (4,400 MT, including 3,200 MT switched from Guatemala). Decreases were reported for Guatemala (3,700 MT). Net sales of 10,800 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for Indonesia (10,000 MT) and unknown destinations (500 MT). Exports of 166,300 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (54,100 MT), Venezuela (25,000 MT), Canada (16,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (16,700 MT), El Salvador (12,100 MT), and Guatemala (11,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 71,800 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (40,000 MT), Morocco (15,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (11,000 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), and Mexico (1,000 MT). Exports of 4,500 MT were down 34 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (3,300 MT), Nicaragua (600 MT), Canada (200 MT), Trinidad (100 MT), and Australia (100 MT).

 

Moving averages

  • SX 50 day 1227 ½
  • KC WN 200 day 709
  • SMN 50 day 482.50

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 8K
  • Corn sold 7K
  • Beans sold 7K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 3K

 

Open outcry option players from yesterday

 

Corn:

FI bot 8000 short dated U 400 puts – Open interest went up 6,103 yesterday. There are a total of 10,245 CDFU 400 puts open now.

ICAP bot 1000 N 460 calls

JPM sold 2000 Z 470 calls

JPM sold 500 U 430 puts/sold 205 CU

Tenco bot 1000 Z 420-370 put spreads/sold 1000 Z 520 calls

 

Beans:

GFI Sold 250 Nov 1200 Puts 47-47.5

EDF Bot 800 WK2  1480 calls 4.5-5.5

Obrien Sold 300 Jul 1420 Puts 3.5-3.625

Macquarie Sold 3000 Nov 1140 Puts/ Bot 3000 Nov 1340 Calls 4.625-4.75 credit/ Sold 1500 Nov futures 1225

FC Stone Sold 750 Nov 1220 Straddles 117-118.5

JP Morgan Sold 350 Nov 1260 Calls 42.25-43.5

Stern Bot 700 Jan 1000 Puts/ Sold 700 Nov 1000 Puts 2.125 db

Rosenthal Bot 500 Jul 1480/1500 call spds 8.125 db

Bunge Bot 600 N/X CSO 260 Calls 2.5-3

Mizuho Bot 200 N/X CSO 240 calls 8

Rosenthal Sold 300 N/X CSO 240 Puts 11

Obrien Bot 800 Jul 1500/1530 Call spds 3-3.5 db

ABN Bot 1100 Jul 1500 Calls 3.875-5.5

ABN Bot 1000 N/X CSO 250 Calls 4.5-6

ABN Sold 600 Jul 1500 Calls 3.25-4.25

ABN Sold 500 Jul 1460 Puts 15-15.5

Obrien Bot 300 Jul 1460 Straddles 32

Obrien Bot 350 Aug 1500/1550 Call spds 4.625 db

EDF Bot 400 Jul 1420 Puts 5-5.5

Rosenthal Sold 200 Jul 1450/1420 Put spds 10.5 credit

ABN Sold 400 N/X CSO 200 puts 2.5

Rosenthal Bot 200 N/X CSO 260 Calls 2.5

 

Wheat:

Tenco sold 500 N 610 straddles

Bache sold 500 N 590 puts

ADM sold 500 U 600 calls/550 put strangles

ABN sold 500 Q 640 calls

ABN sold 400 Z 640 straddles

 

Meal:

JPM bot 200 Q 490 calls

 

Oil:

ICAP bot 400 H 42 calls

Man sold 200 H 42 puts

FI bot 200 Q 39 calls

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,406,770 open, up 9,345
  • Total beans 627,773 open, down 4,348
  • Total meal 331,713 open, up 7,949
  • Total bean oil 346,219 open, up 2,245
  • Total wheat 406,852 open, up 5,605
  • Total KC wheat 138,655 open, down 2,678

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +111 BCF
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Monday June 16th with their Malaysian June 1-15th palm oil export estimates.
  • NOPA May crush report comes out on Monday June 16th at 11 am CST
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting starts on Tuesday June 17th
  • On Tuesday June 17th Sept Chicago , KC , and Minneapolis wheat and rice will go top step (spot month) Dec corn , meal, bean oil, and  oats will go top step, Nov beans will go top step,
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • USDA stocks and acreage report on June 30th at 11 am CST
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE