News From The Grain Floor

 

Some people are born on third base and go through life thinking they hit a triple.

Barry Switzer

 

USDA supply and demand and crop production report today at 11 am CST. See attachment for recap table for the report.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down a ½ at 1462
  • CN up ¾ at 446 ¼
  • WN up 3 ½ at 604 ¾
  • KC WN up 4 ¼ at 730 ¼
  • MWN up 4 at 703 ½
  • SMN up 1.70 at 486.20
  • BON down 11 at 3883
  • RRN up .50 at 1404

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 12,518
  • CN 9,182
  • WN 7,218
  • KC WN 846
  • MWN 329
  • SMN 4,299
  • BON 6,179
  • RRN 23

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn 1-2 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 4-6 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil 10-15 lower
  • Rice  steady better

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Crude oil unchanged . Gold and silver higher

 

Nikkei up .498%

Hang Seng down .251%

Shanghai Index up .118%

 

OPEC conference in Vienna, Austria today. OPEC leaves output target unchanged at 30 MB a day as expected. Press release today at 11 am CST from conference.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 1.45 MB expecting a draw of 1.9 MB
  • Gas a draw of 441,000 barrels expecting a build of 843,000 barrels
  • Distillates a draw of 298,000 barrels expecting a build of 1.2 MB

 

China grain closings = beans down 10, corn up 6, meal up 2, palm oil down 54, and bean oil down 44

 

Malaysian palm oil down 6.

 

Talk continues – Brazil buying and or seeking US new crop HRW wheat .

 

Venezuela seeking US meal for August shipment

 

Jordan bought 50,000 tons of barley for October shipment

 

China to auction 5.0 MMT of corn from reserves today and tomorrow. China sold 19% or 532,333 tons of corn at today’s auction out of the 2.76 M tons they offered.

 

Market concerns that China may halt US sorghum imports after reports this week that China stopped US DDGs imports because they contained unapproved GMO content.

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2014 grain crop at 93.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 95.0 MMT

 

ABARES came out this morning with Australian ‘14/15 crop estimates

  • ’14/15 wheat crop estimated at 24.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.8 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 27.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 Western Australian wheat crop at 8.4 MMT vs. 10.5 MMT a year ago
  • ‘14/15 barley crop estimated at 7.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.7 MMT
  • ‘14/15 canola crop estimated at 3.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.9 MMT
  • ‘14/15 total winter grain crop at 38.8 MMT vs. 44.1 MMT a year ago

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey

  • India’s May palm oil imports at 668,000 tons down 12% from a year ago
  • India’s May bean oil imports almost tripled to 186,000 tons
  • India’s May sunflower imports more than doubled to 150,000 tons

 

35 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Solae Gibson City IL

 

Favorable US Midwest crop weather forecast.

 

The Indian government is forecasting rainfall in the June – Sept period 90-96% of normal.

 

Concerns about dryness in Southern Russia and Volga.

 

Today is the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends tomorrow .

 

Moving averages

  • SN 50 day 1477
  • SX 50 day 1227 ¼
  • KC WN 100 day 723 ¼
  • MWN 100 day 704 ½
  • MWN 200 day 711 ½
  • SMN 50 day 482.30

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,398,271 open, up 11,608
  • Total beans 631,527 open, up 9,411
  • Total meal 323,886 open, up 2,741
  • Total bean oil 342,777 open, down 1,113
  • Total wheat 400,115 open, up 3,013
  • Total KC wheat 141,339 open, down 278

 

Estimates for today’s USDA report.

 

US 2014 wheat production estimates

  • All winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.394 BB, range of estimates are 1.330 – 1.445 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.403 BB and 2013 US winter wheat output was 1.534 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .733 BB, range of estimates are .661 – .776 BB. USDA May estimate was .746 BB and 2013 US HRW wheat output was .744 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .455 BB, range of estimates are .443 -.473 BB. USDA May estimate was .447 BB and 2013 US SRW wheat output was .565 BB
  • White winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .207 BB, range of estimates are .197-.217 BB. USDA May estimate was .209 BB and 2013 US white winter wheat output was .225 BB
  • All wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.964 BB, range of estimates are 1.903-2.041 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.963 BB and 2013 US all wheat output was 2.130 BB

 

US ‘13/14 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .590 BB, range of estimates are .565-.625 BB. USDA May estimate was .583 BB
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.170 BB, range of estimates are 1.121 – 1.279 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.146 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .127 BB, range of estimates are .119 – .139 BB. USDA May estimate was .130 BB

 

US ‘14/15 ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .552 BB, range of estimates are .475-.658 BB. USDA May estimate was .540 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.716 BB, range of estimates are 1.405 – 2.282 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.726 BB.
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .319 BB, range of estimates are .245-.364 BB. USDA May estimate was .330 BB

 

World ‘13/14 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 186.15 MMT, range of estimates are 181.55-188.00 MMT. USDA May estimate was 186.53 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 168.35 MMT, range of estimates are 167.50 – 169.12 MMT. USDA May estimate was 168.42 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 66.43 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0-67.50 MMT. USDA May estimate was 66.98 MMT

 

World ‘14/15 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 187.00 MMT, range of estimates are 180.9 – 190.0 MMT. USDA May estimate was 187.42 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 181.52 MMT, range of estimate are 175.21-184.50 MMT. USDA May estimate was 181.73 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 81.97 MMT, range of estimates are 80.0 – 83.13 MMT. USDA May estimate was 82.23 MMT

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Gas a build of 1.0 MB
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out today at 11 am CST .
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Monday June 16th with their Malaysian June 1-15th palm oil export estimates.
  • NOPA May crush report comes out on Monday June 16th at 11 am CST
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting starts on Tuesday June 17th
  • On Tuesday June 17th Sept Chicago , KC , and Minneapolis wheat and rice will go top step (spot month) Dec corn , meal, bean oil, and  oats will go top step, Nov beans will go top step,
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • USDA stocks and acreage report on June 30th at 11 am CST
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE