News From The Grain Floor

In democracy it’s your vote that counts; In feudalism it’s your count that votes.

Mogens Jallberg

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 6 ½ at 1463 ¼
  • CN up 1 at 452
  • WN down a ½ at 612
  • KC WN down ¾ at 733
  • MWN up a ¼ at 704 ¾
  • SMN up 3.20 at 485.40
  • BON down 33 at 3895
  • RRN down 1.50 at 1413.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 9,831
  • CN 13,191
  • WN 6,316
  • KC WN 708
  • MWN 187
  • SMN 4,703
  • BON 6,091
  • RRN 30

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat steady lower
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 higher
  • Bean oil 25-35 lower
  • Rice  1-2 lower

 

Stock market lower. Dollar, crude, gold, and silver higher .

 

Nikkei down .87%

Hang Seng up .84%

Shanghai Index up 1.06%

 

China’s May CPI +2.5% vs. +1.8% in April , expecting +2.4%

 

China grain closings – beans down 11, corn up 5, meal down 4, palm oil down 4, and bean oil down 16

 

Malaysian palm oil down 26

 

China sold 134,528 tons of beans or 37% at today’s auction. They offered 361,402 tons

 

International Grains Council conference in London today

 

TALK –Reports continue Brazil is buying US hard red winter wheat.

 

Japan seeks 25,940 tons of US western white wheat , 24,490 tons of US HRW wheat , 26,880 tons of Canada western red spring wheat, and 31,995 tons of Australian white wheat for August shipment . Seeks a total of 109,305 tons of wheat

 

USDA chief economist said China grain trade disruption is temporary “Despite the most recent issues on DDGS, the fact is that China needs to import”  – Bloomberg

 

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s June 1-10th palm oil exports at 390,729 tons down .3% from a month ago . Analysts were expecting better exports ahead of Ramadan which begins June 28th

 

China planned to buy 5 MMT of rapeseed for state reserves this year to protect farmers interests and stabilize edible oil prices – Reuters

 

China’s Ag Min said as of June 8th 60% of China’s wheat crop has been harvested

 

Reports of up to 7 South American bean cargoes at US ports waiting to unload.

 

Argentina port workers started a protest on Monday that halted grain shipments from the Rosario hub – Reuters

 

Russian grain delegation said China may start importing wheat, rye, and barley from Russia again. China banned Russian grain exports in the 1990s . China has allowed rapeseed imports from Russia.

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of June 9th Russia’s spring grain plantings are 95.6% complete on 30.5 MH vs. 30.4 MH a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated 2014 total grain area at 31.8 MH up 1.7% from a year ago

 

Manitoba grains crop is 85% planted

 

Favorable crop weather in US Midwest

 

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends on Thursday

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board came out with their May palm oil data report this morning

  • May palm oil stocks at 1.84  MMT vs. average estimate 1.81 MMT and vs. 1.77 MMT in April
  • May palm oil output at 1.66  MMT  vs. average estimate 1.67 MMT and vs. 1.56 MMT in April
  • May palm oil exports at 1.4  MMT vs. average estimate 1.36 MMT and vs. 1.26 MMT in April

 

CONAB came out this morning with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates .

  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 86.1  MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.57 MMT
  • ‘13/14 total corn crop estimated at 77.9  MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.19 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 7.37 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.88 MMT

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week May 31 – June 6 total crush volume at 1,379,800 tons down 11.73% from a week ago
  • For the week May 31-June 6 total crush capacity utilization at 48.31% down 5.35% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013-June 6,2014) crush volume at 47,752,988 tons up 20.91% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1-June 6) crush volume at 29,204,191 tons up 19.68% from a year ago
  • As of June 6th total bean imported stocks at 6.0461 MMT up 91,000 from a week ago and up 36.23% from a year ago
  • Estimated June bean imports at 6.3623 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.4 MMT
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.0 MMT
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 5.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.4 MMT
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.5 MMT  ( first estimate made)

 

Moving averages

  • Nov bean 50 day at 1226 ½
  • July Minneapolis wheat 100 day 704
  • July Minneapolis wheat 200 day 712
  • July meal 50 day 481.80

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 75% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago (expecting steady to up 4%) vs. 63% a year ago and vs. long term average of 69% good to excellent
  • Condition 4% poor to very poor vs. 2% a week ago

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 74% good to excellent (expecting 70-75% good to excellent) vs. long term average of 64% good to excellent
  • Planting 87% (expecting 85-90%) vs. 78% a week ago and vs. 81% 5 year average
  • Emerged 71% vs. 50% a week ago and vs. 62% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition 71% good to excellent (expecting 64-68% good to excellent) vs. 62% a year ago
  • Planting 95% (expecting about 92%) vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 93% five year average
  • Emerged 80% vs. 67% a week ago and vs. 82% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 30% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 31% a year ago
  • Headed 86% vs. 79% a week ago and vs. 85% five year average
  • Harvested 9% (expecting 8%) vs. 5% a year ago and vs. 12% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 69% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 62% a year ago
  • Emerged 93% vs. 89% a week ago and vs. 92% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 50% good to excellent vs. 42% a year ago
  • Planting 89% vs. 74% a week ago and vs. 91% five year average
  • Squaring 8% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 10% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,387,441 , up 4,233
  • Total beans 622,843 open, up 1,720
  • Total meal 321,763 open, down 1,420
  • Total bean oil 343,970 open, up 836
  • Total wheat 397,639 open, up 3,896
  • Total KC wheat 142,484 open, up 31

 

Estimates for Wednesday’s USDA report.

 

US 2014 wheat production estimates

  • All winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.394 BB, range of estimates are 1.330 – 1.445 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.403 BB and 2013 US winter wheat output was 1.534 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .733 BB, range of estimates are .661 – .776 BB. USDA May estimate was .746 BB and 2013 US HRW wheat output was .744 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .455 BB, range of estimates are .443 -.473 BB. USDA May estimate was .447 BB and 2013 US SRW wheat output was .565 BB
  • White winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .207 BB, range of estimates are .197-.217 BB. USDA May estimate was .209 BB and 2013 US white winter wheat output was .225 BB
  • All wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.964 BB, range of estimates are 1.903-2.041 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.963 BB and 2013 US all wheat output was 2.130 BB

 

US ‘13/14 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .590 BB, range of estimates are .565-.625 BB. USDA May estimate was .583 BB
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.170 BB, range of estimates are 1.121 – 1.279 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.146 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .127 BB, range of estimates are .119 – .139 BB. USDA May estimate was .130 BB

 

US ‘14/15 ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .552 BB, range of estimates are .475-.658 BB. USDA May estimate was .540 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.716 BB, range of estimates are 1.405 – 2.282 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.726 BB.
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .319 BB, range of estimates are .245-.364 BB. USDA May estimate was .330 BB

 

World ‘13/14 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 186.15 MMT, range of estimates are 181.55-188.00 MMT. USDA May estimate was 186.53 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 168.35 MMT, range of estimates are 167.50 – 169.12 MMT. USDA May estimate was 168.42 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 66.43 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0-67.50 MMT. USDA May estimate was 66.98 MMT

 

World ‘14/15 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 187.00 MMT, range of estimates are 180.9 – 190.0 MMT. USDA May estimate was 187.42 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 181.52 MMT, range of estimate are 175.21-184.50 MMT. USDA May estimate was 181.73 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 81.97 MMT, range of estimates are 80.0 – 83.13 MMT. USDA May estimate was 82.23 MMT

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • OPEC conference in Vienna, Austria tomorrow. Press conference scheduled 6 hours after meeting is over.
  • ABARES comes out tomorrow with their Australian crop estimates
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST .
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting starts on June 16th
  • On June 17th Sept Chicago , KC , and Minneapolis wheat and rice will go top step (spot month) Dec corn , meal, bean oil, and  oats will go top step, Nov beans will go top step,
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE