News From The Grain Floor

Beware of false knowledge, it is more dangerous than ignorance

George Bernard Shaw

 

USDA announced 117,000 tons of new crop

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 2 ½ at 1454 ½
  • CN down 5 ½ at 453 ½
  • WN down 1 ¼ at 617
  • KC WN up 3 ½ at 739
  • MWN up 2 ¼ at 712 ¼
  • SMN down 6.10 at 481.50
  • BON up 32 at 3933
  • RRN down 4.50 at 1413

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 23,338
  • CN 10,573
  • WN 9,781
  • KC WN 2,128
  • MWN 203
  • SMN 17,679
  • BON 10,810
  • RRN 15

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 5.50-6.50 lower
  • Bean oil 25-35 higher
  • Rice 4-5 lower

 

Stock market lower. Crude, gold, silver, and dollar higher

 

Nikkei up .31%

Hang Seng up .71%

Shanghai Index up .03%

 

China’s May exports +7.0% expecting +6.6% – customs data

 

China’s May imports – 1.6% expecting +6.1% – customs data

 

China’s May trade balance +$35.9 billion expecting +$22.6 billion – customs data

 

China’s PBOC cut reserve requirement ratio by .5% effective June 16th

 

China grain closings = beans up 27, corn down 2, meal up 31, palm oil up 32, and bean oil up 24

 

Malaysian palm oil unchanged

 

China imported 5.97 MMT of beans in May vs. 6.50 MMT in April – customs data

 

China imported 580,000 tons of veg oils in May up 7.4% from April – customs data

 

China stops issuing import permits for U.S. distillers grains –Reuters

  • Effective June 6, U.S. shipments of dried distillers’ grains, known as DDGS, can no longer enter the country, because the government deems them a high risk of containing MIR 162, a genetically modified strain that China hasn’t approved, said the executives, who asked not to be identified as they are not authorized to speak to the media.  – Bloomberg

 

Talk/Reports Brazil buying US HRW wheat last week , Analysts said Brazil could buy up to 1.5 MMT of US wheat before Argentina’s wheat harvest

 

Talk /Report Brazil government to approve 0% import tax on up to 1.0 MMT of wheat

 

Hearing China bought 2 US bean cargoes on Friday for Oct shipment

 

Hearing China bought 6 bean cargoes last week from US and South America.

 

Oil World estimated global biodiesel output at 29.1 MMT (record)  up 8% from 2013

 

Oil World estimated global bean oil usage for biodiesel at 7.3 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Indonesia palm oil usage for biodiesel at 2.6 MMT up 50% from a year ago .

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 31.507 MMT of grain between July 1st – June 6th.

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 33.0 MMT vs. ‘12/13 exports of 23.0 MMT

 

Argentina Ag Min on Friday said that Argentina’s bean harvest is 84% complete and corn harvest is 41% complete

 

Nonthreatening US weather forecast.

 

Today is the last day of the Deutsche Bank Roll

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll – Roll ends Thursday

 

53 ethanol receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

 

149 bean oil receipts canceled Friday afternoon

  • 50 out of Bunge Decatur IN
  • 35 out of Solae Gibson City IL
  • 64 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

 

Moving averages

  • SX 50 day 1225 ½
  • MWN 200 day 712 ¼
  • SMN 50 day 481.20

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,382,853 open, up 14,393
  • Total beans 621,164 open, down 5,699
  • Total meal 323,661 open, down 2,272
  • Total bean oil 343,160 open, up 3,898
  • Total wheat 394,121 open, up 5,287
  • Total KC wheat 142,949 open, up 1,974

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • OPEC meets this week
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting corn conditions to be 78-80% good to excellent and expecting the first bean conditions to be 70-75% good to excellent spring wheat conditions expecting 63-66% good to excellent
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out with their May palm oil data report tomorrow .  Based on a Reuters poll expecting
    • May palm oil stocks average estimate 1.81 MMT vs. 1.77 MMT in April
    • May palm oil output average estimate 1.67 MMT vs. 1.56 MMT in April
    • May palm oil exports average estimate 1.36 MMT vs. 1.26 MMT in April
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Malaysian June 1-10th palm oil export estimates
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 86.57 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.08 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    •  ‘13/14 total corn crop estimated at 75.19 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.46 MMT
    • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 6.88 MMT vs. previous estimate of  6.7 MMT
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • ABARES comes out on Wednesday with their Australian crop estimates
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Wednesday June 11th at 11 am CST . Should see report estimates sometime today.
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting starts on June 16th
  • On June 17th Sept Chicago , KC , and Minneapolis wheat and rice will go top step (spot month) Dec corn , meal, bean oil, and  oats will go top step, Nov beans will go top step,
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE