News From The Grain Floor

Everything looks better when you win. The girls are prettier, the cigars taste better, and the trees are greener.”

Billy Martin

 

Goldman Sachs roll begins today and runs for 5 days. They are rolling their long July wheat, KC wheat, corn, beans, meal, and bean oil positions forward.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 1 ¾ at 1462 ¼
  • CN  up 1 ¼ at 450 ¼
  • WN up 4 at 609 ½
  • KC WN up 8 ½ at 722 ½
  • MWN up 5 ¼ at 695 ¾
  • SMN up .40 at 491.00
  • BON up 23 at 3892
  • RRN  up 9.5 at 1417.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 10,008
  • CN 8,047
  • WN 4,911
  • KC WN 1,200
  • MWN 75
  • SMN 4,167
  • BON  5,099
  • RRN 18

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 7-10 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal  steady to 1.00 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice 8-10 higher

 

Dollar lower. Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei down .01%

Hang Seng down .70%

Shanghai Index down .54%

 

US May unemployment report came out this morning

  • May nonfarm payrolls at +217K expecting +210K
  • May unemployment rate at 6.3% expecting 6.4%
  • April nonfarm payrolls revised to +282K from +288K

 

China grain closings = beans down 52, corn down 2, meal down 59, palm oil down 52, and bean oil down 50

 

Malaysia palm oil down 5.

 

China sold 1,047,233 tons of corn at yesterday’s auction. They offered 3.5 MMT

 

Indonesia bought 200,000 tons of wheat from Russia for Aug-Sept shipment

 

Thailand bought 50,000 tons of US wheat this week.

 

UN bought 12,000 tons of India origin sorghum for donation to Kenya for June-July shipment

 

Bangladesh, Pakistan, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam may buy Black Sea origin wheat.

 

Hearing Morocco bought 15,000 tons of US bean oil yesterday

 

Turkey bought 165,000 tons of milling wheat

 

Analysts expecting a record large US corn crop this year.

 

MOC estimated China’s May bean imports at 5.94 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.85 MMT

 

MOC estimated China’s June bean imports at 4.06 MMT

 

Reports, market talk that a US corn boat was able to unload at Chinese port yesterday.

 

Oil World estimated Indonesia’s Jan – March 2014 palm oil exports at 5.4 MMT vs. 5.5 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated global palm kernel meal imports at 6.8 MMT vs. 6.5 MMT a year ago

 

European Commission estimated EU 2014 rapeseed crop at 21.2 MMT vs. 20.9 MMT a year ago

 

ODA estimated EU 2014 rapeseed crop at 21.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.35 MMT

 

ODA estimated France 2014 rapeseed crop at  5.2 MMT vs. 4.4 MMT in 2013

 

Sparks Polish estimated Poland’s 2014 rapeseed crop at 2.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.5 MMT and down 6% from a year ago

 

Argentina exporters said Argentina exported 1.45 MMT of beans in May vs. 1.6 MMT in April and vs. 1.65 MMT in May 2013.

  • Exported 1.1 MMT of beans to China up 5.2% from a year ago

 

Argentina exporters said Argentina exported 3.0 MMT of soymeal in May vs. 2.65 MMT in April and vs. 2.6 MMT in May 2013.

 

Saskatchewan grain crop is 78% planted vs. five year average of 76%

 

Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said China imported 41.75% of Vietnam’s total rice exports between Jan – April 2014

 

13 ethanol deliveries with the date at 6/04/14

 

13 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

7 bean receipts were canceled out of CGB Hennepin IL

 

35 bean oil receipts were canceled out of South Dakota Soybean Processors, Volga SD

 

US weekend weather forecast is favorable for crops

 

Today is the fourth day of the Deutsche Bank roll. Roll ends Monday. Rolling long July 2014 wheat and KC wheat into July 2015.

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentine crop progress report

  • 2014 wheat crop is 11.9% planted vs. 6.4% a week ago and vs. 19.4% a year ago
  • 2014 wheat area estimated at 4.3 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 bean crop is 80.6% harvested vs. 73.8% a week ago and vs. 98% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 55.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 corn crop is 38.5% harvested vs. 35.8% a week ago and vs. 61.1% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Moving averages

  • July bean 50 day 1474 ¼
  • July KC 100 day 720
  • July KC 200 day 708 ½
  • July Minneapolis 100 day 702 ¼

 

Informa US ‘14/15 winter wheat estimates and world production estimates from yesterday

  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat production estimated at 1.396 BB vs. previous estimate of 1.496 BB
  • ‘14/15 US Hard red winter wheat estimated at 744    MB vs. previous estimate of 840 MB
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat estimated at 477 MB vs. previous estimate of 443  MB
  • ‘14/15 US white wheat estimated at 205  MB vs. previous estimate of 212  MB
  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat yield estimated at 42.6    BPA vs. previous estimate of 44.6  BPA
  • ‘14/15 US hard red winter wheat yield estimated at   33.2 BPA vs. previous estimate of 36.4 BPA
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat yield estimated at  62.3  BPA vs. previous estimate of 60.5 BPA
  • 2013 Brazil total corn crop estimated at 73.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 73.0 MMT
  • 2013 Argentine corn crop estimated at 24.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.3 MMT
  • Russia 2014 corn crop estimated at 11.5 MMT
  • Ukraine 2014 corn crop estimated at 26.0 MMT
  • EU 28 2014 wheat crop estimated at 144.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 143.0 MMT
  • India 2014 wheat crop estimated at 103.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 105.0 MMT
  • China 2014 wheat crop estimated at 123.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 122.0 MMT
  • Russia 2014 wheat crop estimated at 51.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Canada 2014 wheat crop estimated at 29.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentina 2013 bean crop estimated at 55.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 54.0 MMT
  • Brazil 2013 bean crop estimated at 87.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • EU 2014 rapeseed crop estimated at 21.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of21.55 MMT
  • India 2014 rapeseed crop estimated at 7.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.2 MMT
  • Global 2014 cotton crop estimated at 113.6 million bales vs. previous estimate of 113.1 million bales.

 

Open outcry players from yesterday

 

Corn:

Jeffries sold 5000 N 440 puts

Rand sold 1500 U 450 calls/bot 735 CU

ADM sold 1000 N 450 puts

ABN bot 1100 U 540 calls/sold 88 CU

FI bot 1200 Z 420 puts/bot 360 CZ

ADM bot 600 Z 420 puts

ABN sold 1000 U 470-510 call spreads/bot 250 CU

Jefferies bought 1,000 U 480 calls sold 2,500 Q 500 calls

 

Beans:

ABN bot 1000 N 1500 calls

ABN sold 1000 N 1480 calls/bot 460 SN

Bunge sold 1000 X 1200 puts

RJO sold 1000 X 1340 calls

Tenco bot 400 N/X 220 cso puts

 

Wheat:

Tenco bot 2000 Q 610 puts

Tenco sold 500 Z 640 straddles

 

Meal:

ABN sold 500 Q 450 puts/sold 170 SMQ

Jeffries bot 600 U 410 puts/sold 600 Q 420 puts

ADM bot 230 N 500-530 call spreads

ADM sold 250 N 500-530 call spreads

Macquarie sold 300 X 400 calls

 

Oil:

JPM bot 400 Q 40 calls

FI bot 500 Q 41 ½ calls

ADM sold 500 U 38 ½ puts

RJO bot 300 Q 39 ½ calls

 

ABN sold 100 Aug crush at 46.75-47

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn sold 5K
  • Beans sold 5K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Crush closing quotes from yesterday                          

JLY         44.5-45

AUG      46-46.5

SEP        1.01-1.03

OCT       84-86

DEC       77.5-78

JAN       69.5-71

MCH      68-71

MAY      68-69

JLY5        65-68.5

AUG5    68-76.75

 

Open interest from yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,369,732 open, up 9,586
  • Total beans 627,296 open, down 1,898
  • Total meal 325,315 open, down 283
  • Total bean oil 339,508 open, up 2,022
  • Total wheat 389,380 open, up 1,756
  • Total KC wheat 141,579 open, down 2,021

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • China’s May trade data comes out on Sunday
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST . Expecting corn conditions to be 76-78% good to excellent and expecting the first bean conditions to be 71-75% good to excellent
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out with their May palm oil data report on June 10th .  Based on a Reuters poll expecting
    • May palm oil stocks average estimate 1.81 MMT vs. 1.77 MMT in April
    • May palm oil output average estimate 1.67 MMT vs. 1.56 MMT in April
    • May palm oil exports average estimate 1.36 MMT vs. 1.26 MMT in April
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on June 10th with their Malaysian June 1-10th palm oil export estimates
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday June 10th with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 86.57 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.08 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    •  ‘13/14 total corn crop estimated at 75.19 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.46 MMT
    • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 6.88 MMT vs. previous estimate of  6.7 MMT
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Wednesday June 11th at 11 am CST . Should see report estimates sometime today.
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting starts on June 16th
  • On June 17th Sept Chicago , KC , and Minneapolis wheat and rice will go top step (spot month) Dec corn , meal, bean oil, and  oats will go top step, Nov beans will go top step,
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE