News From The Grain Floor

 

“Statistics are the lifeblood of baseball. In no other sport are so many available, and studied so assiduously by participants and fans.”               – Leonard Koppett

 

USDA announced 40K bean oil sold to unknown for ‘13/14 shipment.

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with US wheat estimates and world production estimates. Previous estimates were

  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat production estimated at 1.496 BB
  • ‘14/15 US Hard red winter wheat estimated at   840 MB
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat estimated at 443  MB
  • ‘14/15 US white wheat estimated at 212  MB
  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat yield estimated at 44.6  BPA
  • ‘14/15 US hard red winter wheat yield estimated at   36.4 BPA
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat yield estimated at 60.5 BPA
  • 2013 US cotton production estimated at  12.87 million bales
  • ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop estimated at 23.3 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 70.5 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop estimated at 54.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop estimate at 87.4 MMT

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 6 ¼ at 1476 ¼
  • CN down a ¼ at 456
  • WN down 1 ¼ at 613 ¼
  • KC WN up 1 at 714 ½
  • MWN up 2 ¼ at 691 ¾
  • SMN down .80 at 495.70
  • BON down 29 at 3896
  • RRN down 2 at 1420.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 12,719
  • CN 13,267
  • WN 4,722
  • KC WN 852
  • MWN 221
  • SMN 5,330
  • BON 9,433
  • RRN 44

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal .50 – 1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 20-30 lower
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Crude lower. Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver higher .

 

Nikkei up .08%

Hang Seng down .18%

Shanghai Index up .78%

 

ECB meeting today . ECB cut interest rates by .10% to .15% (new low) Reuters expecting a .15% cut.

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +8K to 312K expecting 310K

 

China grain closings = beans down 37, corn down 3, meal down 18, palm oil up 62, and bean oil up 54

 

Palm oil down 16

 

China auctioned 3.5 MMT of corn from reserves today. Have not seen results yet.

 

Palm oil analyst said Indonesia palm oil stocks are below 3.0 MMT due to lower 2013 palm oil output and due to increase in biodiesel usage.

 

India said it will not raise its palm oil taxes.

 

Japan bought 107,239 tons of food wheat for July-Aug shipment . Breakdown

  • 14,000 tons of US western white wheat
  • 15,310 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 23,720 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 21,349 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 32,860 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Pakistan bought 100,000 tons of Black Sea origin wheat for Aug-Sept shipment

 

Turkey bought 165,000 tons of milling wheat Black Sea origin for July-Aug shipment

 

Turkey bought 105,000 tons of barley Black Sea origin for June-July shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of hard milling wheat optional origin for Oct-Dec shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of barley optional origin for Oct –Nov shipment

 

South Korea seeks 4,039 tons of Australian rice for October shipment

 

South Korea cancels tender to buy 69,437 tons of optional origin rice for October shipment

 

Iraq bought 120,000 tons of rice from the US , Vietnam, and Uruguay

 

Most soybean processors have rolled their basis from July to August

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2014 grain crop at 96.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 95.0 MMT

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2014 wheat crop at 54.5 MMT vs. 2013 crop of 52.0 MMT

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 28.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 26.0 MMT

 

IKAR estimated 2014 wheat exports at 19.4 MMT vs. 2013 of 18.4 MMT

 

Bloomberg survey of 5 analysts estimated EU 28 ‘14/15 wheat crop at 145.9 MMT (largest in 6 years) vs. European Commission estimate of 144.98 MMT

 

FAO ‘14/15 estimates

  • US corn crop at 345 MMT vs. previous estimate of 330.0 MMT
  • Global grain crop at 2.48 billion tons up 21.6 million from previous estimate
  • Global wheat crop at 703.0 MMT vs. 715.6 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Global grain ending stocks at 576 MMT vs. previous estimate of 565 MMT
  • Expecting China and India to have a record large wheat crop this year
  • Expecting a sharp drop in Canada’s wheat crop

 

40 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

40 ethanol deliveries with the date at 5/21/14

 

35 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Solae Gibson City IL

 

Mostly favorable weather forecast for US Midwest

 

Beneficial rains in US Central and Southern Plains , rains may be too late to help some of the wheat crops.

 

Today is the 3rd day of the Deutsche Bank roll. DB roll ends on Monday.  They roll long July 2014 Chicago and KC wheat to July 2015.

 

Weekly US export sale report

  • Wheat – ‘13/14 2,000 ‘14/15 341,400 (expecting ‘13/14 – 50K to +150K , ‘14/15 325-475K)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 550,700 ‘14/15 19,600 (expecting ‘13/14 400-550K , ‘14/15 150-250K)
  • Beans – ‘13/14 41,300 ‘14/15 230,500 (expecting ‘13/14 – 100K to +100K , ‘14/15 500-750K)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 65,800 ‘14/15 233,700 (expecting ‘13/14 50-150K ‘14/15 175-225K)
  • Bean oil  – ‘13/14 5,100 ‘14/15 0 (expecting ‘13/14 0-25K ‘14/15 0-10K)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 2,000 metric tons for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year resulted as increases for Brazil (26,600 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), Taiwan (21,400 MT), Ghana (17,300 MT, including 15,800 MT switched from unknown destinations), Congo (11,700 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Nigeria (10,100 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Senegal (3,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (74,100 MT), South Korea (17,100 MT), and Italy (1,800 MT). Net sales of 341,400 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for Nigeria (106,000 MT), Sri Lanka (65,000 MT), Japan (48,900 MT), and Brazil (35,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Taiwan (20,900 MT) and Italy (1,500 MT). Exports of 493,000 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were South Korea (105,200 MT), Brazil (86,600 MT), Taiwan (60,000 MT), Mexico (42,400 MT), Nigeria (34,100 MT), and Venezuela (30,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 550,700 MT for 2013/2014 were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (242,900 MT, including 178,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,900 MT), Colombia (151,100 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from China, 30,000 MT switched unknown destinations, and decreases of 5,300 MT), Egypt (130,800 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (72,800 MT), Vietnam (64,500 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Portugal (55,800 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from Spain). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (230,400 MT) and China (92,000 MT). Net sales of 19,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (10,000 MT), Mexico (7,600 MT), and China (2,000 MT). Exports of 1,159,500 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (207,400 MT), Colombia (188,100 MT), Mexico (152,800 MT), South Korea (132,800 MT), Egypt (130,800 MT), Taiwan (85,700 MT), and Vietnam (64,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 41,300 MT for 2013/2014 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (29,000 MT, including 28,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT)Mexico (21,200 MT), Taiwan (12,500 MT), Canada (2,100 MT) and Indonesia (1,700 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (28,300 MT). Net sales of 230,500 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (110,200 MT), China (110,000 MT), and Taiwan (4,500 MT). Exports of 213,400 MT were up 79 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (83,300 MT), Japan (53,000 MT), South Korea (27,100 MT), Indonesia (17,100 MT), and Taiwan (8,900 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 65,800 MT for 2013/2014 were down 21 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (34,400 MT), Canada (7,500 MT), Venezuela (7,300 MT), unknown destinations (5,500 MT), Colombia (4,600 MT), the Philippines (4,000 MT), and Sri Lanka (1,900 MT). Decreases were reported for Jamaica (4,000 MT) and Guatemala (200 MT). Net sales of 233,700 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for the Philippines (216,000 MT), Vietnam (9,000 MT), and Ecuador (6,000 MT). Exports of 143,600 MT were up 19 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Colombia (28,000 MT), Egypt (25,800 MT), Canada (22,200 MT), Mexico (14,900 MT), the Dominican Republic (14,400 MT), and Guatemala (9,400 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 5,100 MT for 2013/2014 were down 66 percent from the previous week and 69 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (2,400 MT), Canada (1,800 MT), and Nicaragua (700 MT). Exports of 6,700 MT were up 46 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Jamaica (3,500 MT), Mexico (2,200 MT), Nicaragua (700 MT), and Canada (200 MT).

 

 

 

Moving averages

  • SN 50 day 1473 ½
  • SX 50 day 1224 ½
  • KC WN 100 day 719
  • KC WN 200 day 708 ½
  • MWN 100 day 701 ½

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,357,623 open, up 58
  • Total beans 630,060 open, up 1,500
  • Total meal 325,747 open, up 1,576
  • Total bean oil 338,766 open, up 4,570
  • Total wheat 388,595 open, up 2,527
  • Total KC wheat 143,474 open, down 1,188

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +116 BCF
  • US May unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday . Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat . GS roll runs for 5 days
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out with their May palm oil data report on June 10th .
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on June 10th with their Malaysian June 1-10th palm oil export estimates
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday June 10th with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 86.57 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.08 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    •  ‘13/14 total corn crop estimated at 75.19 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.46 MMT
    • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 6.88 MMT vs. previous estimate of  6.7 MMT
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Wednesday June 11th at 11 am CST
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting starts on June 16th
  • On June 17th Sept Chicago , KC , and Minneapolis wheat and rice will go top step (spot month) Dec corn , meal, bean oil, and  oats will go top step, Nov beans will go top step,
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE