News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“The facts, although interesting, are irrelevant.”

—  Albert Einstein

 

US Census Bureau releases final 2013 and April 2014 trade data sometime today. Expecting US imported 10-15 MB of beans in April.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 9 ½ at 1490 ¾
  • CN up 1 ¼ at 459 ½
  • WN up 5 ¼ at 617 ¾
  • KC WN up 9 at 716 ¾
  • MWN up 5 ½ at 690
  • SMN up 3.20 at 502.80
  • BON up 37 at 3872
  • RRN unchanged at 1455

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 13,714
  • CN 6,010
  • WN 5,184
  • KC WN 1,195
  • MWN 293
  • SMN 5,030
  • BON 10,178
  • RRN 123

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 8-10 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 7-10 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal 3-4 higher
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Crude, gold, and silver higher

 

Nikkei up .22%

Hang Seng down .61%

Shanghai Index down .61%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw 1.4 MB expecting a draw of 300,000 tons
  • Gas a build of 800,000 expecting a draw of 200,000 tons
  • Distillates a draw of 300,000 expecting a build of 400,000

 

China grain closings = beans up 8, corn up 1, meal down 36, bean oil up 26, and palm oil down 2

 

Palm oil up 46

 

Iraq seeks 10K sunflower oil any origin except for China.

 

Algeria seeks 50K optional origin milling wheat for Sept shipment

 

Algeria seeks 50K optional origin barley for Sept shipment

 

China Ag Min said China has planted 25% of their winter wheat crop on 5.76 MH

 

Reuters report said analysts expect US imported 15-17 MB of beans in May and the US has imported up to 60.0 MB of soybeans so far this season. USDA estimated US ‘13/14 soybean imports at 90.0 MB

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated 2014 grain crop at 96.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 100.0 MMT and vs. 89.3 MMT in 2013

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of June 3rd 91.7% of the spring grain crop has been planted on 29.3 MH vs. 27.6 MH a year ago

 

More bean processors rolling bids to August , Cargill , ADM, Bunge and AGP

 

Manitoba Canada has planted 65% of their grain crop

 

Good crop weather in the US

 

Today is the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll. Roll ends Monday. Rolling long July 2014 Chicago and KC wheat to July 2015.

 

Nov bean 50 day moving average is 1224 ½

 

July KC wheat 200 day moving average is 708 ½

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,357,523 open, up 9,677
  • Total beans 628,682 open, down 3,981
  • Total meal 324,163 open, down 2,831
  • Total bean oil 334,432 open, up 1,627
  • Total wheat 386,345 open, down 2,411
  • Total KC wheat 145,008 open, up 2,031

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly  DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 250,000
    • Gas a build of 400,000
    • Distillates a build of 900,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  •  China to auction corn from reserves tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST  with their US winter wheat estimates and world production estimates
  • US May unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday . Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat . GS roll runs for 5 days
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out with May palm oil data report on June 10th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on June 10th with their Malaysian June 1-10th palm oil export estimates
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday June 10th with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Wednesday June 11th at 11 am CST
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting starts on June 16th
  • On June 17th Sept Chicago , KC , and Minneapolis wheat and rice will go top step (spot month) Dec corn , meal, bean oil, and  oats will go top step, Nov beans will go top step,
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE