News From The Grain Floor

Isn’t it interesting that the same people who laugh at science fiction listen to weather forecasts and economists?

Kelvin Throop III

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 8 ½ at 1492
  • CN down 3 ¾ at 461 ¾
  • WN down 1 ¼ at 619 ½
  • KC WN down 1 ½ at 717 ½
  • MWN down 2 ¼ at  695
  • SMN down 2.70 at 503.30
  • BON down 16 at 3815
  • RRN up 2.50 at 1489

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 9,161,
  • CN 7,723
  • WN 5,385
  • KC WN 588
  • MWN 479
  • SMN 3,523
  • BON 7,128
  • RRN 12

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-10 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 1-2 higher

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Gold, silver, and crude oil higher.

 

Nikkei up .65%

Hang Seng up .89%

Shanghai Index down .04%

 

China grain closings – beans down 33, corn down 9, meal down 5, palm oil down 64, bean oil down 84.

 

Chinese soybean auction today. China sold 312,905 tons of beans

 

China sold 21% or 20,000 tons of cotton at today’s auction

 

Egypt Meditrade bought 24,500 tons of sunflower oil and no bean oil for July shipment

 

South Korea Kocopia seeks 55,000 tons of optional origin corn for Sept shipment

 

Japan seeks 107,239 tons of food wheat for July-Aug shipment . Breakdown

  • 14,000 tons of US western white wheat
  • 15,310 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 23,720 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 21,349 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 32,860 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Turkey canceled tender for 100K tons of durum wheat due to high prices

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of June 2nd spring grain planting is 96% complete on 7.71 MH vs. 8.203 MH a year ago

 

34 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Minnesota Soybean Processors Brewster MN

 

10 soymeal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Incobrasa Industries LTD Gilman IL

 

Favorable crop weather in the US

 

Today is the first day of the Deutsche Bank roll.  DB roll runs for 5 days. They roll July 2014 wheat into July 2015 wheat.

 

Oil World estimates

  • ‘14/15 global bean production estimated at 301.2 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 283.9 MMT
    • US estimated at 98.0 MMT vs. 87.0 MMT a year ago
    • Brazil estimated at 90.0 MMT vs. 87.0 MMT a year ago
    • Argentina estimated at 56.0 MMT vs. 55.0 MMT a year ago
    • Paraguay estimated at 8.8 MMT vs. 8.5 MMT a year ago
    • China estimated at 11.8 MMT vs. 12.0 MMT a year ago
    • India estimated 11.0 MMT vs. 8.9 MMT a year ago
  • ‘14/15 global total soybean crush estimated at 247.4 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 234.9 MMT
  • ‘14/15 global bean ending stocks estimated at 90.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 73.2 MMT
    • US ‘14/15 ending stocks estimated at 7.6 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 3.2 MMT
    • Brazil ‘14/15 ending stocks estimated at 25.5 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 21.5 MMT
    • Argentina ‘14/15 ending stocks estimated at 33.4 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 30.1 MMT
  • ‘14/15 global sunseed production estimated at 40.5 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 41.9 MMT
    • Argentina ‘14/15 estimated at 2.8 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 2.1 MMT
    • Ukraine ‘14/15 estimate at 10.3 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 10.8 MMT
    • Russia ‘14/15 estimate at 9.5 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 10.0 MMT
    • EU 28 ‘14/15 estimate at 8.2 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 8.8 MMT
  • ‘14/15 global sunseed crush estimated at 37.1 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 37.4 MMT
  • ‘14/15 global sunseed ending stocks estimated at 2.7 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 3.1 MMT

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week May 24-30th total crush volume at 1,563,250 tons vs. 1,561,850 tons a week ago
  • For the week May 24-30th total crush capacity utilization at 53.66% up .05% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013 – May 30, 2014) crush volume at 46,373,188 tons up 21.23% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 – May 30) crush volume at 27,824,391 tons up 20.14% from a year ago
  • As of May 30th total bean stocks at 5.9551MMT up 18,000 tons from a week ago and up 37.35% from a year ago
  • Estimated May bean imports at 6.463 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated June bean imports at 6.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 5.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 76% good to excellent vs. 63% a year ago . Analysts expecting 70-74% good to excellent . Reuters poll expecting 67-73% good to excellent with the average guess at 70% good to excellent
  • Planted 95% vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 94% five year average. Analysts expecting 93-96% complete. Reuters poll expecting 92-96% complete with the average guess at 94%
  • Emerged 80% vs. 60% a week ago and vs. 80% five year average

 

Beans

  • Planted 78% vs. 59% a week ago and vs. 70% five year average. Analysts expecting 70-85% complete. Reuters poll expecting 71-83% complete with the average guess at 75% complete
  • Emerged 50% vs. 25% a week ago and vs. 45% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Planted 88% vs. 74% a week ago and vs. 88% five year average. Reuters poll expecting on average 85% complete
  • Emerged 67% vs. 43% a week ago and vs. 72% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 30% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 32% a year ago . Analysts expecting 1-2% higher than a week ago
  • Headed 79% vs. 70% a week ago and vs. 78% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 69% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago and vs. 61% a year ago
  • Emerged 89% vs. 80% a week ago and vs. 86% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Planted 74% vs. 62% a week ago and vs. 81% five year average
  • Squaring 5% vs. 4% a year ago and vs. 6% five year average

 

Moving averages

  • SX 50 day at 1223 ½
  • KC WN 100 day at 717 ½
  • MWN 100 day at 700 ½

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,347,767 open, up 5,256
  • Total beans 632,907 open, up 11,334
  • Total meal 327,261 open, up 3,940
  • Total bean oil 333,090 open, up 6,897
  • Total wheat 389,081 open, up 3,567
  • Total KC wheat 142,977 open, up 1,543

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • China to auction wheat tomorrow from reserves
  • Weekly  DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  •  China to auction corn on Thursday from reserves
  • US May unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday . Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat . GS roll runs for 5 days
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out with May palm oil data report on June 10th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on June 10th with their Malaysian June 1-10th palm oil export estimates
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday June 10th with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Wednesday June 11th at 11 am CST
  • On June 17th Sept Chicago , KC , and Minneapolis wheat and rice will go top step (spot month) Dec corn , meal, bean oil, and  oats will go top step, Nov beans will go top step,
  • July options expire on Friday June 20th
  • Position day for July futures is Friday June 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First Notice Day for July futures is Monday June 30th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE