News From The Grain Floor

“If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe.”

Carl Sagan

 

Today is the beginning of a new month.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Today is the first day of the Deutsche Bank roll. They will be rolling their long July 2014 wheat positions into July 2015.  DB roll runs for 5 days.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 5 ½ at 1487 ¾
  • CN down 4 at 461 ¾
  • WN down 5 ¾ at 621 ½
  • KC WN down 8 ½ at 714 ½
  • MWN down 7 ½ at 699
  • SMN down 2.70 at 497.50
  • BON unchanged at 3850
  • RRN up 1 at 1499.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 9,868
  • CN 14,420
  • WN 11,559
  • KC WN 1,670
  • MWN 453
  • SMN 5,188
  • BON 6,973
  • RRN 36

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 5-7 lower
  • KC wheat 7-9 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 7-9 lower
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil steady mixed
  • Rice steady better

 

Gold and crude lower. Silver, dollar, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up 2.07

Hang Seng closed

Shanghai index closed

 

Final May mfg PMIs

  • Italy 53.2 expecting 53.7 vs. April of 54.0
  • France 49.6 expecting 49.3 vs. April of 51.2
  • German 52.3 expecting 52.9 vs. April of 54.1
  • Eurozone 52.2 expecting 52.5 vs. April of 53.4
  • China 50.8 vs. expecting 50.6 April of 50.4

 

China markets are closed today for holiday

 

Malaysian palm oil down 9.

 

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s May palm oil exports at 1,315,952 tons up 7.8% from a month ago.

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s May palm oil exports at 1,220,662 tons up 8.8% from a month ago

 

Pakistan bought 45,000 tons of Black Sea region rapeseed for September shipment

 

Pakistan bought 100,000 tons of wheat from Black Sea Region for Aug/Sept shipment

 

Egypt Meditrade seeks 20,000 sunflower oil and 8,000 bean oil for July shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100K optional origin barley

 

Jordan seeks 100K tons of optional origin milling wheat

 

Indonesia bought 125,000 tons of Russian wheat recently

 

Malaysia, Vietnam, and South Korea are seeking Black Sea origin wheat

 

Analysts are expecting Asian wheat buyers to buy more than the normal 1.0 MMT of Black Sea origin wheat this year

 

Strategie Grains EU 2014 crop estimates

  • Rapeseed crop at 21.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.6 MMT and vs. 21.1 MMT in 2013
  • Rapeseed area estimated at 6.8 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 6.7 MH in 2013
  • Rapeseed yield estimated at 3.21 TPH vs. previous estimate of 3.19 TPH and vs. 3.14 TPH a year ago
  • Sunseed crop estimated at 8.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.1 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 8.9 MMT
  • Soybean crop estimated at 1.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.6 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 1.3 MMT

 

China’s Ag Min said China to see 11th consecutive bumper harvest of summer grain in 2014

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 31.387 MMT of grain between July 1st – May 30th vs. ‘12/13 total exports of 23.0 MMT

 

Kazakhstan’s Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 8.21 MMT of grain between July 1st – May 30th vs. 6.46 MMT a year ago

 

For the week ending May 28th Canada crushed 115,818 tons of canola down 23.8% from a week ago

 

For the week ending May 28th Canada crushed 33,231 tons of beans up 10.6% from a week ago

 

Euronext Nov milling wheat made new 3 month lows overnight.

 

US and Canadian Prairies crop weather is favorable.

 

Favorable weather in May for Black Sea area.

 

3 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Zeeland Farm Services, Portage IN

 

Today is the last day of the Roger’s roll. Rolling long July positions forward in beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal, and oil.

 

Moving averages

  • SX 50 day 1222 ½
  • CN 200 day 472 ½
  • KC WN 100 day 716 ½
  • MWN 100 day 700

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of May 27th , futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 18,367
  • KC wheat long 10,354
  • Corn long 118,965
  • Beans long 84,422
  • Meal long 44,317
  • Bean oil short 17,350

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,344,704 open, down 2,610
  • Total beans 621,704 open, up 1,395
  • Total meal 323,267 open, up 722
  • Total bean oil 326,377 open, up 5,724
  • Total wheat 385,818 open, up 2,140
  • Total KC wheat 141,444 open, up 804

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting corn planting to be 94-96% complete, bean planting expecting 75-83% complete Corn conditions good to excellent expecting 70-74% . Best first corn rating was 78% good to excellent in 2007
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • US May unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday . Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat . GS roll runs for 5 days
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday June 10th with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Wednesday June 11th at 11 am CST
  • On June 17th Sept Chicago , KC , and Minneapolis wheat and rice will go top step (spot month) Dec corn , meal, bean oil, and  oats will go top step, Nov beans will go top step,
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE