News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“Success is getting what you want. Happiness is liking what you get.”

H. Jackson Brown, Jr.

 

Today is month end.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up a ½ at 1499 ½
  • CN up 1 ½ at 471
  • WN down 2 at 630 ½
  • KC WN down 2 at 728 ½
  • MWN down 2 ½ at 712
  • SMN up 1.10 at 499.50
  • BON down 25 at 3916
  • RRN down 3 at 1499.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 6,469
  • CN 14,518
  • WN 5,159
  • KC WN 352
  • MWN 87
  • SMN 2,770
  • BON 5,980
  • RRN 40

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady better
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 lower
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, stock market , and dollar lower

 

Nikkei down .336%

Hang Seng up .311%

Shanghai Index down .062%

 

China grain closings – beans down 52, corn unchanged, meal up 22, palm oil down 50 , and bean oil down 34

 

Palm oil down 40

 

South Korea KFA bought 60K tons of optional origin corn for Dec shipment

 

China sold 1.8 MMT or 53% of corn at yesterday’s auction. They offered 3.5 MMT

 

China to stockpile 5 MMT of rapeseed for state reserves in 2014

 

Agroconsult estimated ‘14/15 Brazil’s bean crop at 94.0 MMT (record)

 

Illinois Wheat Association Illinois wheat tour said southern Illinois soft red winter wheat average yield at 64.68 BPA vs. 61.60 BPA a year ago and vs. 62.0 five year average

 

24 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Bunge Decatur IN

 

16 soymeal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Incobrasa Industries LTD

 

25 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Today is the second day of the Rogers roll. Roll ends Monday

 

Moving averages

  • CN 100 day 478 ¾
  • CN 200 day 472 ½
  • MWN 200 day 714 ½

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. Weekly Argentina crop progress report

  • Wheat planting is 6.4% complete vs. 2% a week ago and vs. 9% a year ago
  • Wheat planting area estimated at 4.3 MH unchanged from previous and vs. 3.62 MH a year ago
  • Bean harvest is 73.8% complete vs. 69.9% a week ago and vs. 96.1% a year ago
  • Bean crop estimated at 55.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.0 MMT
  • Corn harvest is 35.8% complete vs. 33.1% a week ago and vs. 48.8% a year ago
  • Corn crop estimated at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat  ‘13/14 – 52,400 ‘14/15 531,500 (expecting 200,000 – 600,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘13/14 621,300 ‘14/15 90,900 (expecting 450,000 – 850,000 tons)
  • Beans ‘13/14 60,300 ‘14/15 821,100 (expecting old crop -100,000 to +100,000 and new crop 500,000-700,000 tons )
  • Meal ‘13/14 83,700 ‘14/15 200 (expecting 150,000-350,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 15,000 (expecting 0-35,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales reductions of 52,400 metric tons for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year resulted as increases for Yemen (47,300 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Africa (8,200 MT, including 8,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Nigeria (4,400 MT), Italy (1,700 MT), Nicaragua (1,700 MT), and South Korea (1,500 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Taiwan (51,900 MT), unknown destinations (45,000 MT), Israel (13,200 MT), Brazil (5,800 MT), and Mexico (4,500 MT). Net sales of 531,500 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for Brazil (160,500 MT), South Korea (86,100 MT), Japan (84,000 MT), and Taiwan (54,900 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (54,900 MT) and Nicaragua (1,500 MT). Exports of 529,100 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (98,400 MT), China (66,500 MT), Indonesia (60,800 MT), Brazil (60,700 MT), Yemen (47,300 MT), Mexico (41,200 MT), and Nigeria (36,200 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 621,300 MT for 2013/2014 were up 22 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (249,600 MT), Egypt (200,700 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Israel (93,100 MT, including 89,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (83,400 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Portugal (59,600 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from Spain), and South Korea (59,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (155,900 MT), China (115,000 MT), Spain (55,000 MT), and Costa Rica (1,400 MT). Net sales of 90,900 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Mexico (89,600 MT) and Japan (1,400 MT). Exports of 1,210,200 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (277,300 MT), Egypt (208,700 MT), Japan (205,300 MT), Colombia (142,600 MT), South Korea (67,800 MT), Vietnam (65,000 MT), and Portugal (59,600 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 60,300 MT for 2013/2014 were down 63 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Taiwan (21,700 MT), Japan (19,100 MT, including 18,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), Indonesia (15,900 MT), Mexico (13,700 MT), Vietnam (8,700 MT), and Canada (2,600 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (22,500 MT). Net sales of 821,100 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (388,000 MT), China (358,000 MT), and Mexico (40,000 MT). Exports of 119,300 MT were down 42 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (35,800 MT), Indonesia (25,500 MT), Japan (21,800 MT), Israel (18,500 MT), and Taiwan (9,500 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 83,700 MT for 2013/2014 were down 55 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (38,800 MT), Venezuela (25,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (7,400 MT), unknown destinations (6,900 MT), Colombia (3,400 MT), Jamaica (2,000 MT), and Bangladesh (1,600 MT). Decreases were reported for Canada (2,200 MT), Ecuador (1,500 MT), and Guatemala (900 MT). Net sales of 200 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Canada. Exports of 120,500 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week, but down 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (41,500 MT), Ecuador (31,500 MT), Canada (19,100 MT), Honduras (11,500 MT), Bangladesh (2,900 MT), and Sri Lanka (2,400 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 15,000 MT for 2013/2014 were down 64 percent from the previous week, but up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Guatemala (12,000 MT), Mexico (1,600 MT), Nicaragua (600 MT), and Jamaica (500 MT). Exports of 4,600 MT were up 11 percent from the previous week, but down 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (3,000 MT), Canada (800 MT), Nicaragua (600 MT), and Australia (100 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,346,267 open, up 9,013
  • Total beans 620,515 open, up 994
  • Total meal 322,674 open, up 2,837
  • Total bean oil 320,896 open, down 71
  • Total wheat 383,880 open, up 2,074
  • Total KC wheat 140,648 open, down 1,167

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Chinese markets are closed on Monday for holiday
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s May palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Deutsche Bank wheat roll begins Monday. They will be rolling July wheat into July 2015 wheat. DB roll runs for 5 days
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday June 6th. Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat . GS roll runs for 5 days
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE

 

Thank you,