News From The Grain Floor

“Be thankful we’re not getting all the government we’re paying for.”

– Will Rogers

 

Rogers roll begins today. They will be rolling long July positions forward in wheat, corn, beans, meal, and bean oil. Rogers roll runs for 3 days.

 

No USDA announcements today

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 5 ½ at 1503 ½
  • CN down 2 ½ at 470
  • WN up 3 ¾ at 642 ½
  • KC WN up 1 ¾ at 737 ¾
  • MWN up 3 at 721
  • SMN up 2.20 at 500.70
  • BON unchanged at 3963
  • RRN down .5 at 1504.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 8,025
  • CN 8,945
  • WN 6,244
  • KC WN 1,097
  • MWN 282
  • SMN 2,990
  • BON 4,827
  • RRN 83

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil steady mixed
  • Rice  steady lower

 

Stock market and crude oil higher. Dollar , gold , and silver lower

 

Nikkei up .073%

Hang Seng down .303%

Shanghai Index down .470%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at – 27K to 300K expecting 319K

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 3.5 MB expecting a build of 483,000
  • Gas a draw of 1.4 MB expecting a build of 283,000
  • Distillates a build of 821,000 expecting a build of 750,000

 

China grain closings – beans up 5, corn up 21, meal up 32, palm oil up 6, bean oil up 18.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 42.

 

Algeria bought 700,000 tons of French wheat for August shipment

 

Egypt FIHC bought 32,500 tons of sunflower oil and 15,000 tons of bean oil for June-July shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 120,000 tons of optional origin corn for Dec shipment

 

South Korea KFA seeks 60,000 tons of optional origin corn for Dec shipment

 

Japan bought 98,483 tons of food wheat for June-Aug shipment from the US and Canada

 

Jordan bought 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Oct-Nov shipment

 

Israel bought 108,000 tons of corn optional origin for July-Sept shipment

 

Israel bought 40,000 tons of feed wheat optional origin for July-Sept shipment

 

Hearing China bought 2 Brazilian bean cargoes for March shipment

 

Reports China may have a large amount of July futures left to price against cash contracts.

 

China sold 65.88% of corn at auction today. They offered 3.5 M tons of corn.

 

China sold 4.31% or 30,847 tons of wheat at yesterday’s auction. They offered 717,059 tons

 

MOC estimated China’s May bean imports at 5.94 MMT

 

MOC estimated China’s June bean imports at 4.06 MMT

 

MOC estimated China’s May rapeseed imports at 574,046 tons

 

MOC estimated China’s June rapeseed imports at 9,000 tons

 

MOC estimated China’s May bean oil imports at 126,258 tons

 

MOC estimated China’s June bean oil imports at 80,800 tons

 

MOC estimated China’s May palm oil imports at 226,263 tons

 

MOC estimated China’s June palm oil imports at 82,892 tons

 

Oil World estimates

  • ‘14/15 global rapeseed production estimated at 68.3 MMT vs. ‘13/14 production of 69.9 MMT
    • ‘14/15 EU28 rapeseed output estimated at 21.9 MMT vs. previous estimate 21.4 and vs. 21.3 MMT in ‘13/14
    • ‘14/15 German rapeseed output at 5.7 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 5.8 MMT in ‘13/14
    • ‘14/15 France rapeseed output at 5.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.1 MMT and vs. 4.4 MMT in ‘13/14
    • ‘14/15 UK rapeseed output estimated at 2.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.4 MMT and vs. 2.2 MMT in ‘13/14
    • ‘14/15 Poland rapeseed output at 2.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.4 MMT and vs. 2.8 MMT in ‘13/14
    • ‘14/15 Canada rapeseed output estimated at 16.0 MMT vs. 18.0 MMT in ‘13/14
    • ‘14/15 Chinese rapeseed output estimated at 12.0 MMT vs. 11.7 MMT in ‘13/14
    • ‘14/15 India rapeseed output estimated at 7.2 MMT vs. 7.4 MMT in ‘13/14
    • ‘14/15 Australian rapeseed output estimated at 3.5 MMT vs. 4.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 global rapeseed crush estimated at 66.0 MMT vs. 62.8 MMT in ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 global rapeseed ending stocks estimated at 8.0 MMT vs. 9.0 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Argentine officials said Argentina’s April crush was 3.893 MMT vs. 2.103 MMT in March and vs. 3.586 MMT in April 2013.

 

Brazilian port workers canceled the planning of a nationwide strike to give the government more time.

 

HGCA said the drought in Syria may reduce wheat and barley planting area by 8% from the 3 year average.

 

Mostly favorable crop weather in the US Midwest

 

24 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Bunge Decatur IN

 

Moving averages

  • CN 100 day 478 ½
  • CN 200 day 472 ½
  • WN 100 day 651
  • WN 200 day 657 ½
  • MWN 200 day 714 ½

 

Option players from yesterday

 

Corn:

FI sold 7500 short dated U 450-425 put spreads

New Edge bot 4500 U 600 calls/sold 270 CU

New Edge bot 1000 N 480 calls/sold 320 CN

Man bot 1000 U/Z -10 cents CSO puts

RJO sold 700 N 465-480 call spreads

JPM bot 600 Z 460-400 put spreads/sold 600 Z 500 calls

ICAP sold 1000 U 510 calls covered

 

Beans:

FI bot 3500 X 1060-1000 put spreads

Vision bot 1000 X 1140 puts/sold 2000 X 1060 puts

Macquarie bot 1000 U 1240 puts/bot 320 SU

FI sold 750 X 1180 puts

New Edge bot 600 U 1100 puts/sold 600 short dated U 1140 puts

RJO sold 400 X 1260 puts

RJO bot 400 X 1200 puts

RJO bot 400 X 1180 puts

Rand bot 400 F 1200-1100 put spreads/bot 80 SF

 

Wheat:

Tenco bot 2000 Q 695 puts/sold 1000 N 630 puts

Rand sold 500 U 660-600 put spreads

Rosenthal bot 500 Z 820 calls

Rosenthal sold 500 Z 610 puts

Rosenthal bot 500 U 760 calls

ICAP sold 500 N 620 puts

 

Oil:

KCG bot 500 U 45 calls

MLP bot 400 N 41 calls

New Edge sold 400 N 41-39 ½ put spreads

New Edge bot 400 Q 44 calls

New Edge sold 300 Q 40 ½ calls/bot 300 BOQ

New Edge bot 300 Q 41-39 ½ put spreads

New Edge bot 300 N 43 ½ calls

New Edge sold 500 N 41 calls

Bache bot 400 U 40 puts/sold 400 Q 42 puts

RJO sold 300 Q 41-39 ½ put spreads

RJO sold 300 N 40 ½-39 ½ put spreads

 

Meal:

ICAP sold 500 N’15 410 calls

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,337,893 open, up 5,183
  • Total beans 619,755 open, up 1,454
  • Total meal 319,993 open, up 3,207
  • Total bean oil 321,219 open, up 5,543
  • Total wheat 382,543 open, up 482
  • Total KC wheat 141,182 open, down 1,009

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +110 BCF
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 10 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 500K
    • Gas a draw of 200K
    • Distillates a build of 250K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia May palm oil imports tomorrow
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Deutsche Bank wheat roll begins Monday June 2nd. They will be rolling July wheat forward. DB roll runs for 5 days
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday June 6th. Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat . GS roll runs for 5 days
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE