News From The Grain Floor

An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.

Niels Bohr

 

USDA announced 110,000 US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 172,000 US meal sold to the Philippines for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 8 ½ at 1497 ½
  • CN down 2 ¾ at 467
  • WN down 3 ¾ at 637 ¼
  • KC WN down 1 ½ at 736 ¾
  • MWN down 1 ¼ at 717 ¼
  • SMN up 2.60 at 496.80
  • BON up 16 at 4010
  • RRN down 8.50 at 1500.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 9,870
  • CN 14,736
  • WN 7,001
  • KC WN 626
  • MWN 349
  • SMN 3,133
  • BON 4,857
  • RRN 174

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-10 higher
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 higher
  • Bean oil  10-20 higher
  • Rice 7-10 lower

 

Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver higher . Crude lower.

 

Nikkei up .235%

Hang Seng up .592%

Shanghai Index up .774%

Most world stock markets higher

 

China grain closings – beans up 81, corn up 1, meal down 5, palm oil up 20, and bean oil down 16.

 

Palm oil down 2.

 

Philippines bought 83,475 tons of meal from the US and Argentina for Oct/Nov shipment

 

Japan received no offers in SBS tender for 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley for August shipment

 

Japan seeks 120,000 feed wheat and 200,000 feed barley via SBS tender for Sept shipment

 

Chinese crushing margins are getting better , but still are negative

 

China’s northeast province Heilongjiang estimated bean planting area at 2.0 MH down 10% from a year ago

 

China’s northeast province Heilongjiang estimated bean production at 3.3 MMT

 

Brazil’s government announced it will increase biodiesel mandate to 7% starting in November from 5% currently

 

Brazil soybeans reach US East Coast, more cargoes on the way

 

Brazil loaded 3 cargoes of beans headed to the US , about 900,000 tons

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 25.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.0 MMT

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of 5/27/14 Russia farmers have planted 26.5 MH of spring grains, or 83.1% of total area. A year ago Russian farmers had planted spring grains on 23.2 MH

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated 2014 spring grain planting area at 31.8 MH up 1.7% from a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Russia – crop estimates

  • ‘14/15 total grain crop estimated at 92.0 MMT vs. 92.3 MMT in ‘13/14
    • ‘14/15 wheat crop estimated at 52.0 MMT
    • ‘14/15 barley crop estimated at 16.0 MMT
    • ‘14/15 corn crop estimated at 11.5 MMT
    • ‘14/15 rice crop estimated at 1.0 MMT
    • ‘14/15 oat crop estimated at 5.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 total grain exports estimated at 24.0 MMT

 

Mostly favorable crop weather in the US.

 

95 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon .

  • 79 out of Cargill Ackley IA
  • 16 out of Cargill Buffalo IA

 

Moving averages

  • CN 100 day 478 ¼
  • CN 200 day 472 ¾
  • MWN 200 day 714 ½
  • BON 100 day 4093

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Planted   88% complete vs. 73% a week ago and vs. 88% five year average   (expecting 80-90% complete)
  • Emerged 60% vs. 34% a week ago and vs. 64% average

 

Corn condition by state

  • LA  63% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago
  • MS 69% good to excellent up 3% from a week ago
  • KS 36% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • TX 32% good to excellent up 5% from a week ago
  • MO 61% good to excellent up 8% from a week ago
  • AR 76% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago
  • KY 78% good to excellent up 6% from a week ago
  • AL 80% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago
  • GA 63% good to excellent up 4% from a week ago
  • NC 17% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • SC 72% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • IL 67% good to excellent up 5% from a week ago
  • IN 68% good to excellent

 

Soybeans

  • Planted 59% vs. 33% a week ago and vs. 56% five year average    (expecting 50-65% complete)
  • Emerged 25% vs. 9% a week ago and vs. 27% five year average

 

Bean conditions by state (only 2 states reporting)

  • LA 65% good to excellent
  • MS 76% good to excellent

 

Spring wheat

  • Planted  74% vs. 49% a week ago and vs. 82% five year average (expecting 70% complete)
  • Emerged 43% vs. 24% a week ago and vs. 57% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 30% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 31% a year ago   (expecting good to excellent conditions to be steady to 1% higher than a week ago)
  • Headed 70% vs. 57% a week ago and vs. 69% five year average

 

TX wheat harvest is 12% complete vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 11% average

 

MS wheat harvest is 2% complete vs. 14% average

 

Rice

  • Condition 67% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 59% a year ago
  • Planted 95% vs. 87% a week ago and vs. 91% five year average
  • Emerged 80% vs. 69% a week ago and vs. 77% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Planted 62% vs. 46% a week ago and vs. 64% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,332,764 open, down 64
  • Total beans 619,058 open, down 4,694
  • Total meal 316,638 open, up 2,200
  • Total bean oil 316,356 open, up 2,969
  • Total wheat 382,258 open, down 1,718
  • Total KC wheat 142,822 open, down 1,340

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • China to auction corn tomorrow, China to auction 3.5 M tons of corn
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • Rogers Roll begins tomorrow . Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat. Rogers roll runs for 3 days
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia May palm oil imports on Friday
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Deutsche Bank wheat roll begins Monday June 2nd. They will be rolling July wheat forward. DB roll runs for 5 days
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday June 6th. Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat . GS roll runs for 5 days
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE