News From The Grain Floor

 

Egotism is the anesthetic that dulls the pain of stupidity.

— J. Leahy

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 11 ¾ at 1503 ¾
  • CN down 5 ¼ at 472 ¾
  • WN down 9 ¼ at 643 ¼
  • KC WN down 5 ¾ at 739 ¼
  • MWN down 4 at 721 ½
  • SMN down 5.10 at 497.50
  • BON down 7 at 4031
  • RRN down 9.50 at 1515.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 16,351
  • CN 14,329
  • WN 10,141
  • KC WN 953
  • MWN 453
  • SMN 4,928
  • BON 9,007
  • RRN 119

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 lower
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 8-11 lower
  • KC wheat  5-7 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal 5-6 lower
  • Bean oil  5-10 lower
  • Rice  7-10 lower

 

Stock market higher. Gold, silver, crude, and dollar lower

 

Nikkei up .233%

Hang Seng down .082%

Shanghai Index down .337%

 

China grain closings from today – beans down 25, corn up 2, meal down 53, palm oil down 4, and bean oil down 2.

 

China grain closings from yesterday – beans down 4, corn down 2, meal up 14, palm oil down 44, and bean oil down 28

 

Malaysian palm oil today was down 3

 

Malaysian palm oil yesterday was down 9.

 

China sold 81.5% of beans at today’s auction. They sold 244,116 tons out of the 299,570 tons they offered

 

Market talk – problems with letters of credit with large Chinese crushers

 

Hearing last week Chinese crushers bought a small amount of old crop Brazilian beans, bought 2-3 US new crop bean cargoes, bought 5 new crop Brazilian bean cargoes and bought 2 old crop Argentine bean cargoes

 

Egypt Meditrade seeks 20,000 sunflower oil and bought 8,000 tons of soybean oil for July shipment

 

Israel seeks 108,000 tons of corn and 40,000 tons of feed wheat

 

Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat optional origin for August shipment

 

Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice optional origin for June – Oct shipment

 

Philippines seek 95,850 tons of feed wheat from Black Sea, EU, Australia, and or India for July –August shipment

 

Philippines seek 84,375 tons of soymeal from Argentina or the US for Oct-Nov shipment

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s May 1-25th palm oil exports at 1,091,980 tons up 13% from a month ago

 

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s May 1-25th palm oil exports at 1,093,703 tons up 14% from a month ago

 

Dorab Mistry expects India to increase their oilseed import taxes

 

Safras e Mercado – Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimates

  • Corn crop estimated at 73.888 MMT vs. 82.070 M a year ago
  • Wheat crop 6.37 MMT vs. 5.6 MMT a year ago
  • Canola crop 58,000 tons vs. 61,000 tons a year ago
  • Sunseed crop 173,000 tons vs. 109,000 a year ago
  • Bean crop 86.623 MMT vs. 82.565 MMT a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia’s May 1st grain stocks were at 15.6 MMT up 3.3% from a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 24.1 MMT of grain between July 1st – May 21st  up 61.7% from a year

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of yesterday Russia’s spring wheat planting is 71% complete on 9.3 MH vs. 6.6 MH a year ago , corn planting is 93% complete on 2.4 MH vs. 2.2 MH a year ago , sunseed planting is 88% complete on 6.2 MH vs. 6.0 MH a year ago

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s total spring wheat area at 13.0 MH

 

Egypt has bought about 3.0 MMT of local wheat so far this season

 

German statistics office said Germany exported 12.0 MMT of grain between July 1, 2013 – March 1, 2014 vs. 10.2 MMT

 

BBCMON said Algeria imported 2.2 MMT of wheat in the first quarter of 2014 up 28% from a year ago

 

Mostly favorable crop weather in the US Midwest

 

Rains in the US Plains. Rains in western Kansas were disappointing

 

20 wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Andersons Maumee OH

 

24 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Bunge Decatur IN

 

27 rice receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week May 17-23 total crush volume at 1,561,850 tons up 12.96% from a week ago
  • For the week May 17-23 total crush capacity utilization at 53.60% up 5.46% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013 – May 23, 2014) crush volume at 44,809,938 tons up 20.92% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 – May 23, 2014) crush volume at 26,262,141 tons up 19.56% from a year ago
  • As of May 23rd total imported bean stocks at 5.9371 MMT up 13,020 tons from a week ago and up 41.44% from a year ago
  • Estimated May bean imports at 6.463 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated June bean imports at 6.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.6 MMT
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated August bean imports at 5.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.8 MMT

 

CME to lower margins  – Reuters

  • 23-May-2014 17:26 – CME LOWERS CORN FUTURES (C) INITIAL MARGINS FOR SPECS BY 18.5 PCT TO $1,650 PER CONTRACT FROM $2,025
  • 23-May-2014 17:28 – CME LOWERS LIVE CATTLE FUTURES (LC) INITIAL MARGINS FOR SPECS BY 18.6 PCT TO $935 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,148
  • 23-May-2014 17:30 – CME LOWERS SOYBEAN FUTURES (S) INITIAL MARGINS FOR SPECS BY 18.5 PCT TO $3,300 PER CONTRACT FROM $4,050
  • 23-May-2014 17:31 – CME LOWERS WHEAT FUTURES (W) INITIAL MARGINS FOR SPECS BY 18.5 PCT TO $1,650 PER CONTRACT FROM $2,025

 

Weekly COT supplemental report. Large spec positions as of May 20th futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 13,856
  • KC wheat long 12,312
  • Corn long 145,237
  • Beans long 75,604
  • Meal long 41,517
  • Bean oil short 21,564

 

Moving averages

  • CN 100 day 478
  • CN 200 day 472 ¾
  • CZ 100 day 477 ¾
  • CZ 200 day 478 ¾
  • WN 100 day 650 ½
  • MWN 200 day 715
  • BON 100 day 4093

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,334,718 open, up 7,152
  • Total beans 625,797 open, up 7,412
  • Total meal 314,027 open, up 1,057
  • Total bean oil 316,879 open, up 4,299
  • Total wheat 385,162 open, down 2,679
  • Total KC wheat 143,885 open, down 483

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly  US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Analysts expecting corn planting to be 80-90% complete, expecting bean planting to be 50-65% complete, winter wheat good to excellent conditions expecting steady to 1% higher than a week ago, spring wheat planting expecting about 70% complete
  • China weekly wheat auction tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • China to auction corn on Thursday , China to auction 3.5 M tons of corn
  • Rogers Roll begins Thursday . Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat. Rogers roll runs for 3 days
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia May palm oil imports on Friday
  • Brazil is expected to confirm a higher biodiesel mandate on May 30th
  • Deutsche Bank wheat roll begins Monday June 2nd. They will be rolling July wheat forward. DB roll runs for 5 days
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday June 6th. Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat . GS roll runs for 5 days
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE

 

Thank you,