News From The Grain Floor

The wise man knows how little he knows; it is the foolish person who imagines he knows everything.

– Jawajarial Nehru

 

June options expire today at 115 am CST. See below for open interest in June options

 

USDA announced 210,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15

 

Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day holiday. See attachments for trading schedules.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 4 ¾ at 1523
  • CN up 2 ¼ at 479
  • WN up 3 ½ at 662 ¾
  • KC WN up 3 at 754 ¾
  • MWN up 4 ¼ at 735 ¼
  • SMN up 2.60 at 504.10
  • BON up 14 at 4100
  • RRN down 2.50 at 1529.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 6,995
  • CN 6,654
  • WN 10,065
  • KC WN 403
  • MWN 191
  • SMN 3,215
  • BON 5,297
  • RRN 14

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Gold and silver lower. Dollar ,crude, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up .867%

Hang Seng up .053%

Shanghai Index up .657%

 

China grain closings – beans down 32, corn down 1, meal up 22, palm oil up 30, bean oil up 34

 

Malaysia palm oil down 7

 

Indonesia bought 125,000 tons of Russian wheat this month

 

Pakistan seeking Black Sea origin wheat

 

Malaysia seeks Black Sea origin wheat

 

Kazakhstan to sell 100,000 tons of wheat to China’s COFCO for  ‘14/15 shipment

 

Turkey seeks 70,000 tons of optional origin feed corn

 

Japan seeks 98,483 tons of food wheat for June – August shipment. Breakdown

  • 14,600 tons of western white US wheat
  • 34,280 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 25,665 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 23,948 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of South American beans yesterday

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of US new crop beans yesterday

 

Reports US washed out 2 cargoes of Argentine meal (This has been in reports since Tuesday or Wednesday)

 

JCI estimated China’s May bean imports at 5.8-6.1 MMT

 

JCI estimated China’s June bean imports at 5.8-6.1 MMT

 

Grain.gov.cn said China’s palm oil inventories at ports are currently at 1.2 MMT up 20,000 tons from a week ago

 

Brazil is expected to confirm a higher biodiesel mandate on May 30th

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentine crop progress report

  • Wheat planting 2% complete vs. 3.2% from a year ago
  • Estimated 2014 wheat planting area at 4.3 MH vs. 3.62 MH a year ago
  • Bean harvest is 69.9% complete vs. 66.9% a week ago and vs. 93% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 55.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn harvest is 33.1% complete vs. 30% a week ago and vs. 50.5% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

UkrAgroConsult said as of May 20th 90% of Ukraine’s corn crop has been planted on 4.6 MH vs. 4.7 MH a year ago

 

Saskatchewan spring crops planting is 22% complete vs. 15% a week ago vs. 27% a year ago and vs. 29% average. Spring wheat planting is 20% complete and canola planting is 18% complete.

 

Mexico reported PEDv (deadly pig virus) in 17 states out of the 19 states that were tested.

 

South Korea seeks 73,476 tons of optional origin rice for Oct shipment

 

Favorable planting weather in Midwest , with just a few showers in forecast

 

Much needed rains in the US Plains through the weekend

 

Moving averages

  • July corn 100 day 477 ½
  • July corn 200 day 473
  • Dec corn 100 day 477 ½
  • Dec corn 200 day 479
  • July wheat 200 day 658
  • July bean oil 50 day 4175
  • July bean oil 100 day 4093
  • July bean oil 200 day 4175

 

June options open interest

Corn – July currently trading 479

  • 460 calls 225 open – puts 1,357 open
  • 465 calls 149 open – puts 2,366 open
  • 470 calls 766 open – puts 7,606 open
  • 475 calls 1,421  open – puts  2,718 open
  • 480 calls 1,653 open – puts 5,652 open
  • 485 calls 1,427 open – puts 1,859 open
  • 490 calls 2,385 open – puts 3,569 open
  • 495 calls 1,893 open – puts 2,156 open
  • 500 calls 6,705 open  – puts 4,146 open

Beans – July currently trading 1521 ¾

  • 1490 calls 1,495 open – puts 744 open
  • 1500 calls 2,080 open – puts 2,410 open
  • 1510 calls 1,293 open – puts 474 open
  • 1520 calls 1,844 open – puts  940 open
  • 1530 calls 689 open – puts 135 open
  • 1540 calls 844 open – puts 17 open

Meal – July currently trading 504.10

  • 480 calls 467 open – puts 327 open
  • 485 calls 371 open – puts  543 open
  • 490 calls 71 open – puts  508 open
  • 500 calls 195 open – puts 270 open
  • 505 calls 320 open – puts  305 open
  • 510 calls 26 open – puts  20 open

Bean oil – July currently trading 4098

  • 40 calls 249 open – puts 311 open
  • 40.5 calls 176 open – puts 411 open
  • 41 calls 525 open – puts 339 open
  • 41.5 calls 118 open – puts 654 open
  • 42 calls 896 open  -puts 2,574 open

Wheat – July currently trading 661

  • 640 calls 488 open – puts 2,458 open
  • 645 calls 16 open – puts  613 open
  • 650 calls 719 open – puts  3,209 open
  • 655 calls 35 open – puts  337 open
  • 660 calls 1,134 open – puts 1,758 open
  • 665 calls 66 open  – puts 328 open
  • 670 calls 1,297 open – puts 1,622 open
  • 675 calls 343 open  – puts 878 open
  • 680 calls 1,789 open  – puts 2,393 open

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,327,378 open, up 4,888
  • Total beans 618,467 open,. Up 6,195
  • Total meal 313,118 open, up 615
  • Total bean oil 312,649 open, down 1,104
  • Total wheat 387,325 open, up 4,555
  • Total KC wheat 144,382 open, down 1,885

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s May 1-25th palm oil exports on Monday
  • Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day holiday. See attachment for trading schedule.
  • China to hold bean auction on Tuesday.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Tuesday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly  US crop progress report comes out on Tuesday at 3 pm CST
  • Rogers Roll begins Thursday . Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat. Rogers roll runs for 3 days
  • Brazil is expected to confirm a higher biodiesel mandate on May 30th
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Monday June 2nd. They will be rolling July wheat forward. DB roll runs for 5 days
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Friday June 6th. Rolling long July positions forward in beans, meal, bean oil , corn, and wheat . GS roll runs for 5 days
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE