News From The Grain Floor

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

Upton Sinclair

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of new crop US beans sold to China

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 25 ¾ at 1531
  • CN up 6 ¼ at 480 ¾
  • WN up 3 at 667 ¼
  • KC WN down a ¼ at 761 ¼
  • MWN down a ¼ at 738 ½
  • SMN up 7.40 at 505.50
  • BON up 67 at 4114
  • RRN up 2 at 1529

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 32,061
  • CN 16,157
  • WN 6,359
  • KC WN 927
  • MWN 419
  • SMN 10,672
  • BON 13,457
  • RRN 20

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 20-30 higher
  • Corn 5-7 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal 7.00-8.00 higher
  • Bean oil 60-70 higher
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Crude lower. Dollar , gold, silver, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 2.105%

Hang Seng up .513%

Shanghai Index down .185%

 

Flash May mfg PMIs

  • HSBC China PMI 49.7 (highest in five months) vs. April final of 48.1
  • France at 49.3 expecting 51.0 vs. 51.2 in April
  • German  at 52.9 expecting 54.0 vs. April of 54.1
  • Eurozone at 52.5 expecting 53.2 vs. April of 53.4

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +28K to 326K expecting 310K

 

China grain closings – beans up 6, corn up 11, meal up 78, palm oil up 48, and bean oil up 62

 

Malaysian palm oil up 17

 

Reports Chinese are short July beans on pricing for open contracts

 

Reports Chinese crush margins are improving, but they are still negative

 

Reports Europeans need to price meal off July

 

Reports new crop Brazilian beans are being sold

 

Hearing US canceled Argentine meal imports.

 

China bought 1-2 cargoes of Argentine beans for August shipment

 

Report China has been buying old crop US bean oil

 

Reports new crop US bean cargoes are being sold

 

China held a corn auction last night/this morning. Heard they offered 1.0 MMT of corn. I have not seen the results from the auction yet.

 

China’s current palm oil stocks at ports is 1.24 MMT

 

Concerns about tight US bean supplies

 

Egypt Meditrade bought 18,500 sunflower oil and bought 7,000 tons of bean oil for June-July shipment

 

South Korea KOCOPIA bought 55,000 tons of US corn for August shipment

 

Japan bought 97,372 tons of food wheat for June – July shipment. Breakdown

  • 25,980 tons of US western white wheat
  • 22,453 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 23,489 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 25,450 tons of white Australian wheat

 

Saudi Arabia bought 600,000 tons of feed barley over the past 2 weeks , Black Sea Region, for July – Sept shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin barley

 

Tunisia seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat optional origin for June-July shipment

 

Russia Ag Min estimated 2014 grain crop at 100.0 MMT (with Crimea the estimate is 102.0 MMT) vs. previous estimate of 95-98 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 89.3 MMT

 

APK Inform estimated 2014 Russia sunflower seed yield at 1.41 TPH vs. 1.6 TPH a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag  Min said Ukraine has exported 30.88 MMT of grain between July 1st – May 21st vs. ‘12/13 total grain exports of 23.0 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 33.0 MMT

 

Good planting weather and warm temps in forecast for northern and eastern Midwest, showers in forecast for southern and western Midwest the next 5-6 days

 

Much need rains in the forecast for the US Plains through the weekend

 

Dry and hot in Black Sea Region.

 

35 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Solae Gibson City IL

 

Moving averages

  • CN 100 day 477 ¼
  • CN 200 day 473
  • CZ 100 day 477 ½
  • CZ 200 day 479
  • WN 200 day 658
  • MWN 50 day 747 ¼
  • BON 100 day 4091

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat –  ‘13/14 142,200  ‘14/15 209,800  (expecting old crop 50-250,000 tons, new crop 150-300,000 tons)
  • Corn –    ‘13/14  507,900  ‘14/15 62,500  (expecting old crop 325-525,000 tons, new crop 50-200,000 tons)
  • Beans –  ‘13/14 164,400   ‘14/15 451,200  (expecting old crop – 150,000 to + 100,000 tons , new crop 500-700,000 tons)
  • Meal –   ‘13/14 186,300  ‘14/15 164,000  (expecting old crop 25,000 – 150,000 tons, new crop 50 – 200,000 tons)
  • Bean oil –  ‘13/14  41,300   ‘14/15 0 (expecting old crop 0-20,000 tons, new crop 0-10,000 tons)

 

US Export Highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 142,200 metric tons for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 39 percent and from the prior 4-week average. Increases for Taiwan (54,000 MT), Ecuador (38,300 MT, including 37,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Brazil (34,700 MT), Algeria (22,100 MT), South Korea (17,600 MT), and Venezuela (11,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (31,000 MT), Jamaica (9,500 MT), Nigeria (7,500 MT), and Peru (5,000 MT). Net sales of 209,800 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (57,000 MT), Nigeria (35,000 MT), Taiwan (33,700 MT), and Ecuador (29,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Venezuela (54,900 MT). Exports of 507,500 MT were down 20 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (112,300 MT), the Philippines (65,700 MT), Thailand (50,900 MT), Nigeria (44,200 MT), Algeria (42,100 MT), Ecuador (38,300 MT), and Brazil (34,700 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 507,900 MT for 2013/2014 were up 48 percent from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for South Korea (508,200 MT, including 188,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (158,000 MT), Colombia (108,900 MT, including 89,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), Taiwan (79,600 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from China), the Dominican Republic (45,600 MT), and Guatemala (27,800 MT, including 22,800 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for Japan (186,400 MT), unknown destinations (173,000 MT), Egypt (62,800 MT), China (60,100 MT), and the French West Indies (5,000 MT). Net sales of 62,500 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Mexico (60,000 MT) and Nicaragua (5,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Guatemala (2,500 MT). Exports of 1,159,100 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week, but down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were South Korea (312,300 MT), Japan (230,200 MT), Colombia (209,400 MT), Mexico (187,300 MT), Taiwan (83,200 MT), Egypt (65,200 MT), and Guatemala (22,800 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 164,400 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (65,100 MT), Indonesia (29,000 MT), Taiwan (22,900 MT), unknown destinations (19,000 MT), Venezuela (12,000 MT), and Japan (10,600 MT). Net sales of 451,200 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (230,500 MT), unknown destinations (180,000 MT), and Japan (15,200 MT). Exports of 204,900 MT were down 24 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (116,900 MT), Japan (33,300 MT), Indonesia (28,000 MT), China (9,300 MT), and Taiwan (7,700 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 186,300 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (87,000 MT), Mexico (31,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (25,400 MT), Venezuela (25,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (20,000 MT), Guatemala (8,300 MT, including 9,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,200 MT), and Canada (8,100 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (33,300 MT) and the French West Indies (2,300 MT). Net sales of 164,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for the Philippines (123,000 MT), Vietnam (36,000 MT), and Nicaragua (5,000 MT). Exports of 99,800 MT were down 49 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (25,000 MT), Mexico (24,100 MT), Canada (19,500 MT), Guatemala (8,300 MT), Honduras (6,700 MT), and Morocco (3,300 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 41,300 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for China (40,000 MT) and Mexico (1,700 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (400 MT). Exports of 4,100 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (2,300 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), Jamaica (500 MT), and Australia (100 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,322,784 open, down 126
  • Total beans 612,348 open, up 4,981
  • Total meal 312,498 open, up 2,598
  • Total bean oil 313,718 open, down 494
  • Total wheat 383,077 open, up 6,064
  • Total KC wheat 146,268 open, down 197

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +104 BCF
  • Last trading day for June options is tomorrow … Options expire on the close.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s May 1-25th palm oil exports on Monday May 26th
  • Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day holiday. See attachment for trading schedule.
  • Rogers Roll begins Thursday May 29th. Rogers roll runs for 3 days
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins June 2nd. They will be rolling July wheat forward.
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE