News From The Grain Floor

Rock-a-bye, trader, on the tip top.

When the Board meets, the market will rock.

When the rate rises, quotations will fall.

And down will come trader, margins and all.

—The Wall Street Journal, March 29, 1929

 

USDA announced 111,000 tons of optional origin beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 6 ¼ at 1491 ½
  • CN up 2 at 479 ¼
  • WN up 7 at 681 ½
  • KC WN up 12 ½ at 781 ¼
  • MWN up 11 at 749 ¾
  • SMN up 3.10 at 493.60 – July meal made a new contract high overnight of 495.90 , Dec meal made a new contract high overnight of 401.80.
  • BON down 13 at 4029
  • RRN up 1 at 1533.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 8,444
  • CN 12,036
  • WN 8,940
  • KC WN 1,146
  • MWN 234
  • SMN 3,890
  • BON 5,442
  • RRN 15

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC wheat 11-13 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 10-12 higher
  • Meal 3.00-4.00 higher
  • Bean oil  5-15 lower
  • Rice steady better

 

Crude and dollar higher. Stock market, gold, and silver lower

 

Nikkei up .491%

Hang Seng up .573%

Shanghai Index up .147%

 

China grain closings – beans up 48, corn up 3, meal up 38, palm oil down 30, and bean oil down 14.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 14

 

China sold 81% of beans at today’s auction. They sold 243,489 tons out of the 300,877 tons they offered

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s May 1-20th palm oil exports at 854,791 tons up 19.1% from a month ago

 

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s May 1-20th palm oil exports at 856,128 tons up 18.5% from a month ago

 

Reports – China bought 7 new crop US bean cargoes last week

 

Reports – China may still have problems opening up letters of credit on South American bean cargoes

 

Market talk Soybean imports from South America into the US have quieted down

 

South Korea MFG seeks 210,000 tons of any origin corn for Nov – Dec shipment

 

Japan seeks 97,372 tons of food wheat for June – July shipment. Breakdown

  • 25,980 tons of US western white wheat
  • 22,453 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 23,489 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 25,450 tons of white Australian wheat

 

Egypt Meditrade seeks 40,000 sunflower oil and 15,000 bean oil for June/July shipment

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 40,000 tons of sunflower oil and 25,000 tons of bean oil for June July shipment

 

Lebanon bought 30,000 tons of Romania wheat for June shipment

 

Jordan seeks 150,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Sept-Nov shipment

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week May 10-16th total crush volume at 1,382,650 tons up 12.76% from a week ago
  • For the week May 10-16th total crush capacity utilization at 48.15% up 5.45% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013 –May 16, 2014) crush volume at 43,248,088 tons up 20.23% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 – May 16) crush volume at 24,700,291 tons up 18.31% from a year ago
  • As of May 16th total imported bean stocks at 5.8069 MMT down 62,400 tons from a week ago and up 42.84% from a year ago
  • Estimated May bean imports at 6.463 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated June bean imports at 6.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.3 MMT
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.2 MMT
  • Estimated August bean imports at 4.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.2 MMT

 

Oil World estimates

  • ‘13/14 global oilseed production estimated at 487.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 483.5 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 457.80 MMT . Including
    • Soybean output estimated at 280.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 280.6 MMT and vs. 267.4 MMT in ‘12/13
    • Rapeseed output estimated at 69.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 69.1 MMT and vs. 63.9 MMT in ‘12/13
    • Sunseed output estimated at 41.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 40.2 MMT and vs. 35.4 MMT in ‘12/13
  • ‘13/14 global oilseed use estimated at 468.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 478.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 use of 451.6 MMT. Including
    • Soybean use estimated at 269.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of  272.4 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 use of  259.5 MMT
    • Rapeseed use estimated at 65.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 63.8 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 use of 64.4 MMT
    • Sunseed use estimated at 40.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 39.8 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 use of 35.6 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global oilseed ending stocks estimated at 89.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 94.4 MMT and vs. 75.1 MMT in ‘12/13
    • ‘13/14 global bean ending stocks estimated at 73.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 78.2 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 stocks of 63.1 MMT
  • 2014 EU rapeseed crop estimated at 21.9 MMT vs. 2013 crop of 21.3 MMT
  • ‘14/15 EU rapeseed imports estimated at 2.9 MMT vs. ‘13/14 imports of 3.6 MMT
  • ‘14/15 EU rapeseed crush estimated at 23.5 MMT vs. 23.1 MMT in ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 EU rapeseed ending stocks estimated at 1.4 MMT vs. 1.3 MMT a year ago

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso , Brazil ‘14/15 bean crop at 27.31 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 26.04 MMT

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso, Brazil ‘14/15 bean planting area at 8.67 MH vs. 8.35 MH in ‘13/14

 

IGC estimated EU ‘13/14 wheat exports at a record high 30.0 MMT

 

IGC sees EU ‘14/15 wheat output up 2% from ‘13/14

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of May 19th Ukraine has planted 90% of their spring grains crop

 

16 meal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Incobrasa Industries LTD Gilman IL

 

3 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Drier and warmer forecast for Canadian Prairies

 

Good planting weather in US Midwest

 

Much needed rains in forecast in Central/ Southern Plains by the end of week

 

Below normal rainfall and above normal temps in Black Sea Region.

 

Moving averages

  • CN 100 day = 476 ½
  • CN 200 day = 473
  • KC WN 50 day 772 ½
  • MWN 50 day 746 ½
  • BON 100 day 4090

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Planted 73% vs. 59% a week ago and vs. 76% five year average. Expecting 70-80% complete, Reuters average estimate for corn planting was 74%
    • IL 84% complete vs. 78% a week ago and vs. 73% average
    • IN 72% complete vs. 61% a week ago and vs. 62% average
    • IA 84% complete vs. 70% a week ago and vs. 88% average
    • KS 86% complete vs. 72% a week ago and vs. 82% average
    • KY 74% complete vs. 64% a week ago and vs. 69% average
    • MI 29% complete vs. 20% a week ago and vs. 65% average
    • MN 53% complete vs. 31% a week ago and vs. 81% average
    • MO 92% complete vs. 86% a week ago and vs. 77% average
    • NE 91% complete vs. 77% a week ago and vs. 89% average
    • OH 50% complete vs. 40% a week ago and vs. 60% average
    • WI 36% complete vs. 20% a week ago and vs. 61% average
  • Emerged 34% vs. 18% a week ago and vs. 42% five year average

 

Corn conditions by state

  • LA 61% good to excellent up 8% from a week ago
  • MS 66% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago
  • AR 74% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago
  • AL 79% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago
  • GA 59% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago
  • NC 81% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago
  • SC 72% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago
  • KY 72% good to excellent, first rating of the season
  • MO 53% good to excellent, first rating of the season
  • IL 62% good to excellent , first rating of the season
  • KS 36% good to excellent , first rating of the season

 

Soybeans

  • Planted 33% vs. 20% a week ago and vs. 38% five year average. Expecting 28-40% complete, Reuters average estimate for bean planting was 35%
    • AR 49% vs. 42% a week ago and vs. 44% average
    • IL 36% vs. 26% a week ago and vs. 32% average
    • IN 33% vs. 23% a week ago and vs. 35% average
    • IA 40% vs. 20% a week ago and vs. 50% average
    • KS 32% vs. 16% a week ago and vs. 30% average
    • MI 15% vs. 10% a week ago and vs. 35% average
    • MN 16% vs. 4% a week ago and vs. 45% average
    • MO 32% vs. 16% a week ago and vs. 25% average
    • NE 65% vs. 36% a week ago and vs. 55% average
    • OH 20% vs. 13% a week ago and vs. 35% average
  • Emerged 9% vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 11% five year average

 

Soybean condition by state (only one state reported)

  • LA 61% good to excellent

 

Spring wheat

  • Planted 49% vs. 34% a week ago and vs. 68% five year average . Reuters average estimate for spring wheat planting was 52%
  • Emerged 24% vs. 12% a week ago and vs. 40% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 29% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and down 2% from a year ago . Expecting steady to 1% higher. Reuters was expecting up to down 1% from a week ago.
    • NE good to  excellent condition down 7% from a week ago
    • SD good to excellent condition down 5% from a week ago
    • WA good to excellent condition down 3% from a week ago
    • NC good to excellent condition down 2% from a week ago
    • KS good to excellent condition down 1% from a week ago
    • OK good to excellent down 1% from a week ago
    • TX good to excellent condition unchanged from a week ago
    • OH good to excellent condition up 3% from a week ago
    • ID good to excellent condition up 2% from a week ago
    • MT good to excellent condition up 2% from a week ago
  • Headed 57% vs. 44% a week ago and vs. 58% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 66% good to excellent unchanged from a year ago
  • Planted 87% vs. 75% a week ago and vs. 82% five year average
  • Emerged 69% vs. 53% a week ago and vs. 66% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Planted 46% vs. 30% a week ago and vs. 48% five year average

 

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,318,426 open, down 11,058
  • Total beans 604,150 open, up 8,873
  • Total meal 311,260 open, up 3,218
  • Total bean oil 315,120 open, down 574
  • Total wheat 376,923 open, up 7,291
  • Total KC wheat 146,002 open, down 1,712

 

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • China to hold weekly wheat auction tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • China to auction 1.0 MMT of corn from reserves on Thursday.
  • HSBC China Flash May PMI comes out on Thursday
  • Eurozone flash May PMI comes out on Thursday
  • Last trading day for June options is Friday .. Options expire on the close.
  • Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day holiday. See attachment for trading schedule.
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE