News From The Grain Floor

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

Aldous Huxley

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 2 at 1463
  • CN down 3 ½ at 480
  • WN down 1 at 673 ¼
  • KC WN down 3 ¾ at 764
  • MWN down 4 ¾ at 734 ½
  • SMN down .20 at 480
  • BON down 14 at 4061
  • RRN up 1.50 at 1541.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 9,621
  • CN 18,182
  • WN 9,921
  • KC WN 1,211
  • MWN 172
  • SMN 3,161
  • BON 4,841
  • RRN 6

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat steady to 2 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal steady to .50 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 1-2 higher

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Gold, silver, and crude oil higher

 

Nikkei down .640%

Hang Seng down .037%

Shanghai Index down 1.052%

Most world stock markets lower.

 

China grain closings – beans up 38, corn down 1, meal up 15, palm oil down 44, and bean oil down 46

 

Malaysian palm oil down 44

 

Turkey seeks 190,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for July – Aug shipment

 

Turkey seeks 100,00 tons of optional origin barley for June-July shipment

 

China’s crush margins are improving.

 

NDRC said China targets 2014 soybean price at 4,800 Yuan per ton

 

Argentina Ag Min said on Friday that 69% of the Argentine bean crop has been harvested

 

FAO estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 25.0 MMT vs. ‘12/13 crop of 29.0 MMT

 

FAO estimated ‘14/15 Argentine wheat area at 4.0 MH

 

FAO estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 10.5 MMT up 14% from a year ago and below the 5 year average

 

FAO estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn exports at 16.0 MMT down 14% from a year ago

 

AgCanada (on Friday) estimated ‘14/15 Canada’s wheat area at 10.9 MH vs. previous estimate of 9.99 MH

 

AgCanada (on Friday) estimated ‘14/15 Canada’s canola area at 8.013 MH vs. previous estimate of 8.75 MH

 

AgCanada (on Friday) estimated Canada’s 2014 all wheat crop at 29.6 MMT vs. 37.5 MMT a year ago

 

AgCanada (on Friday) estimated Canada’s 2014 wheat area at 22.2 MMT vs. 21.6 MMT in 2013

 

AgCanada (on Friday) estimated Canada’s ‘14/15 carryout at 9.4 MMT vs. ‘13/14 of 11.4 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said May 1st grain stocks were 9.1 MMT up 12% from a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine’s 2013 grain crop was 63.0+ MMT vs. 46.2 MMT in 2012

 

Russia statistics agency said Russia exported 23.708 MMT of grain between July 1 – May 14th up 60.3% from a year ago

 

Russia’s statistics agency said Russia exported 736,000 tons of grain between May 1-14th

Russia’s ag Min said Russia’s 2013 grain crop was 89.3 MMT vs. 68.7 MMT in 2012

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 22.0 MMT vs. ‘12/13 grain exports of 15.69 MMT

 

Good planting weather in most of the US corn belt this week

 

Central/Southern Plains forecast hot, dry, and windy the next 2-3 days , then good rains Thursday and Friday with more rains in the 6-10 day  forecast . 11-15 day forecast is hot and dry again

 

2 oat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

 

17 bean receipts were canceled Friday afternoon .

  • 1 out of Cargill Ottawa IL
  • 6 out of CIRM Chicago IL
  • 10 out of CGB Hennepin IL

 

28 rice receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

 

Moving averages

  • July corn 100 day 476 ¼
  • July wheat 200 day 658
  • July KC wheat 50 day 771 ½
  • July bean oil 100 day 4090

 

Weekly supplemental COT report from Friday. Large spec positions as of May 13th . Options and futures combined

  • Wheat long 3,405
  • KC wheat long 12,651
  • Corn long 201,102
  • Beans long 83,132
  • Meal long 40,000
  • Bean oil short 5,362

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,329,910 open, down 12,422
  • Total beans 595,109 open, down 4,396
  • Total meal 308,039 open, down 656
  • Total bean oil  315,713 open, down 187
  • Total wheat 369,959 open, up 2,216
  • Total KC wheat 147,723 open, down 1,238

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting corn planting to be 70-80% complete, expecting bean planting to be 28-40% complete and expecting winter wheat conditions to be unchanged to 2% higher than a week ago.
  • China to auction 300,000 tons of beans from reserves on tomorrow
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s May 1-20th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • HSBC China Flash May PMI comes out on Thursday
  • Eurozone flash May PMI comes out on Thursday
  • Last trading day for June options is Friday .. Options expire on the close.
  • Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day holiday. See attachment for trading schedule.
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE