News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“If you tell the truth, you don’t have to remember anything.”

Mark Twain

 

USDA announced 104,000 tons of US corn sold to Mexico for ‘13/14 shipment

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with 2014 US acreage estimates. See below for Informa’s previous estimates.

 

NOPA April crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. See below for estimates for NOPA’s report.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 2 ¾ at 1489 ½
  • CN down 2 ¾ at 492 ¾
  • WN down 3 at 687 ¼
  • KC WN up a ½ at 805 ¾
  • MWN down 1 ½ at 776 ¾
  • SMN up 1.50 at 488
  • BON up 4 at 4142
  • RRN up .5 at 1528.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 10,538
  • CN 10,152
  • WN 10,140
  • KC WN 881
  • MWN 327
  • SMN 2,834
  • BON 4,941
  • RRN 12

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn  2-4 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice steady better

 

Dollar higher . Gold, silver, stock market, and crude oil lower

 

Nikkei down .747%

Hang Seng up .656%

Shanghai Index down 1.124%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at – 24K to 297K expecting 320K

 

China grain closings – beans up 67, corn down 6, meal up 27 (record highs in Dalian meal) , palm oil up 28, bean oil up 2

 

Palm oil up 20

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s May 1-15th palm oil exports at 640,101 tons up 28% from a year ago

 

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s May 1-15th palm oil exports at 639,414 tons up 22.53% from a year ago

 

Reports of China bean demand increasing – China eyeing Brazilian bean cargoes for June forward shipment.

 

South Korea NOFI bought 130,000 tons of optional origin corn for November shipment

 

South Korea MFG bought 106,000 tons of feed wheat optional origin for October shipment

 

South Korea MFG bought 188,000 tons of optional origin corn for Oct-Nov shipment

 

South Korea Flour Mills seeks 24,300 tons of US milling wheat for Sept shipment

 

Japan bought 97,780 tons of wheat from the US and Australia for July shipment

 

China sold 77,616 tons of wheat at auction . They offered 672,871 tons of wheat

 

CNGOIC estimated 2014 China wheat crop at 122.6 MMT up .7% from 2013

 

CNGOIC estimated 2014 China corn crop at a record high 222.1 MMT up 2.0% from 2013

 

CNGOIC estimated 2014 China rice crop at 207.44 MMT up 4.15 M from 2013

 

CNGOIC said China will sell corn from reserves on May 19th

 

China waives value added tax for soybean stockpiling – Bloomberg

 

Report Brazilian farmers have sold 1.2 MMT of beans this week

 

Reports Argentine farmers have sold 1.0 MMT of beans this week

 

Reports Mexico continues to buy new crop Russian wheat

 

German Farm Coop DRV estimated 2014 grain crop at 47.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 47.3 MMT and vs. 47.7 MMT in 2013

 

DRV estimated German’s 2014 all wheat crop at 24.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.7 MMT and vs. 25.0 MMT in 2013

 

DRV estimated German’s 2014 barley crop at 10.4 MMT unchanged from previous and vs. 10.3 MMT in 2013

 

DRV estimated German’s 2014 corn crop at 5.1 MMT unchanged from previous and vs. 4.4 MMT in 2013

 

DRV estimated German’s 2014 winter rapeseed crop at 5.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.5 MMT and vs. 5.8 MMT in 2013

 

French Ag Ministry 2014 grain area estimates

  • Corn area estimated at 1.76 MH vs. 1.85 MH in 2013
  • Rapeseed area estimated at 1.53 MH vs. 1.44 MH in 2013
  • Sunseed area estimated at 678,000 hectares vs. 771,000 hectares in 2013
  • Winter wheat area estimated 5.01 MH vs. previous estimate of 4.99 MH and vs. 4.96 MH a year ago
  • Barley area estimated at 1.68 MH vs. previous estimate of 1.69 MH and vs. 1.64 MH in 2013

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat – ‘13/14 54,900  ‘14/15 197,100  (expecting old crop 100-300,000; new crop 150-300,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 343,000  ‘14/15 47,300  (expecting old crop 200-400,000; new crop 150-300,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘13/14 73,600  ‘14/15 324,700 (expecting old crop – 100,000 to + 50,000; new crop 200-350,000 tons)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 84,500  ‘14/15 204,500 (expecting old crop 25-150,000; new crop 0-150,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 1,800   ‘14/15 0  (expecting old crop 0-20,000; new crop 0-10,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 54,900 metric tons for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 83 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases for Brazil (59,000 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Iraq (52,500 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (51,000 MT, including 47,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,000 MT), Chile (38,100 MT), Israel (13,200 MT), and Honduras (7,700 MT, including 7,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (154,300 MT), Italy (14,400 MT), Nigeria (10,000 MT), and Jamaica (1,800 MT).  Net sales of 197,100 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (76,000 MT), Brazil (25,000 MT), the United Arab Emirates (25,000 MT), and the Philippines (20,000 MT).  Exports of 635,300 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were the Philippines (138,500 MT), Brazil (116,000 MT), Iraq (52,500 MT), Taiwan (49,900 MT), Japan (43,000 MT), and Mexico (41,900 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 343,000 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Egypt (103,800 MT), Japan (60,200 MT, including 31,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 31,800 MT), Portugal (54,100 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from Spain and decreases of 900 MT), unknown destinations (53,600 MT), Mexico (53,200 MT), Costa Rica (37,900 MT), and Colombia (37,800 MT).  Decreases were reported for Spain (155,000 MT), Guatemala (11,300 MT), and China (2,000 MT).  Net sales of 47,300 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Mexico (60,000 MT) and Japan (25,300 MT).  Decreases were reported for Costa Rica (37,900 MT).  Exports of 1,023,300 MT were down 28 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Japan (294,200 MT), Mexico (197,600 MT), Egypt (129,800 MT), Israel (117,700 MT), Colombia (102,600 MT), Portugal (54,100 MT), and Indonesia (31,600 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 73,600 MT for 2013/2014 were up 80 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Indonesia (90,700 MT, including 66,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT), Mexico (37,000 MT), Japan (25,600 MT, including 22,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT), Vietnam (6,700 MT), and Taiwan (1,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (89,200 MT) and Malaysia (2,700 MT).  Net sales of 324,700 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (265,000 MT) and China (53,000 MT).  Exports of 269,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Indonesia (100,100 MT), Mexico (88,500 MT), Japan (50,000 MT), Taiwan (9,100 MT),  and the Philippines (8,300 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 84,500 MT for 2013/2014 were up 13 percent from the previous week, but down 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Canada (17,200 MT), El Salvador (12,200 MT, including 4,600 MT switched from Guatemala), Panama (10,100 MT, including 8,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (9,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (7,800 MT), Venezuela (5,700 MT), and Mexico (5,500 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (12,300 MT) and Guatemala (1,800 MT).  Net sales of 204,500 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Thailand (116,000 MT), the Philippines (80,000 MT), El Salvador (4,300 MT), and Canada (4,200 MT).  Exports of 197,300 MT were up 26 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were the Philippines (47,800 MT), Venezuela (40,700 MT), Mexico (33,200 MT), Canada (19,500 MT), Colombia (13,200 MT), and the Dominican Republic (10,400 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 1,800 MT for 2013/2014 were down 77 percent from the previous week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Mexico (800 MT) and Nicaragua (800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (100 MT).  Exports of 4,400 MT were down 34 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (1,400 MT), Canada (1,100 MT), Nicaragua (800 MT), and Trinidad (800 MT).

 

Wet and cold weather in US Delta , Canadian Prairies, and Midwest the next 2-3 days

 

Moving averages

  • July corn 50 day 501 ¼
  • July wheat 50 day 695 ½
  • July bean oil 100 day 4090
  • July bean oil 200 day 4184

 

20 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of The Andersons Maumee OH

 

44 new bean receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • 38 out of Consolidated Grain and Barge , Hennepin IL
  • 6 out of CIRM Chicago IL

 

38 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 24 out of Bunge Decatur IN
  • 14 out of Cargill Iowa Falls IA

 

2 meal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Des Moines IA

 

Deliveries

  • Meal 67 with the date current
    • House ADM issued 50
    • House Term stopped 25
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 42
  • Bean oil 89 with the date current
  • Corn 6 with the date current
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 4
  • Mini corn 5 with the date current
  • Wheat 64 with the date current
    • House ADM stopped 9
  • Beans 44 with the date current
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 10
    • House ADM stopped 13
  • Oats 5 with the date current

 

Informa’s previous estimates were

  • Corn acreage estimated at 93.029 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 91.7 MA
  • Bean acreage estimated at 81.204 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 81.5 MA
  • All wheat acreage estimated at 56.648 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 55.8 MA
  • Winter wheat acreage estimated at 42.542 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 42.0 MA
  • Cotton acreage estimated at 10.76 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 10.9 MA

 

Estimates for today’s NOPA April Crush report

  • Crush average estimate is 132.5 MB, range of estimates are 124.7-141 MB vs. 153.84 MB in March and vs. 120.113 MB in April 2013. April crush ten year average is 128.8 MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate is 1.993 billion lbs. range of estimates are 1.925 – 2.030 billion vs. 2.023 B in March and vs. 2.638 B in April 2013
  • Meal exports no estimate is given for meal exports , but March exports were 798,883 tons and April 2013 meal exports were 506,426 tons

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,351,637 open, up 9,434
  • Total beans 595,717 open, up 5,252
  • Total meal 308,890 open, up 315
  • Total bean oil 312,309 open, up 1,849
  • Total wheat 370,804 open, up 1,777
  • Total KC wheat 148,455 open, up 2,355

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +98 BCF
  • Informa comes out today at 1030 am with their 2014 US acreage estimates
  • NOPA April crush report comes out today at 11 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Monday China to sell corn from reserves
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE