News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Well, you don’t tug on Superman’s cape, you don’t spit into the wind. You don’t pull on the mask of old Lone Ranger and you don’t mess around with Jim.

– Jim Croce

 

USDA announced 126,000 tons of corn sold to South Korea for ‘13/14 delivery

 

USDA announced 116,000 tons of  meal sold to Thailand for ‘14/15 delivery

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 6 ¾ at 1472
  • CN up 2 ½ at 502
  • WN unchanged at 715
  • KC WN up 2 at 826 ½
  • MWN up 2 ½ at 793 ¼
  • BON up 30 at 4128
  • SMN up 2.70 at 480.90
  • RRN unchanged at 1440

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 9,405
  • CN 11,228
  • WN 3,680
  • KC WN 345
  • MWN 241
  • BON 5,982
  • SMN 3,446
  • RRN 14

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat
  • Minneapolis wheat
  • Meal 1-3 higher
  • Bean oil 25-35 higher
  • Rice steady

 

Gold , silver, stock market, dollar and crude oil higher .

 

Nikkei up 1.950%

Hang Seng up .408%

Shanghai Index down .101%

 

China grain closings – beans up 35, corn up 2, meal down 11, palm oil up 20, bean oil up 18

 

China held a bean auction today. They offered 300,000 tons. I have not seen results from the auction yet.

 

Japan seeks 97,780 tons of food wheat from the US and Australia for July shipment.

 

Taiwan bought 110,450 tons of US milling wheat for July – August shipment

 

South Korea KFA bought 120,000 tons of corn from US, South America, or South Africa for Nov-Dec shipment

 

Taiwan MFIG bought 60,000 tons of Brazilian corn for July-Aug shipment

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey of 7 Chinese crushers and researchers – ‘13/14 Chinese bean imports estimated at 66.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 69.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 imports of 60.0 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado said 90.4% of Brazil’s first corn crop has been harvested.

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated ‘14/15 Ukraine corn crop at 24-25 MMT  vs. USDA estimate of 26.0 MMT

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated ‘14/15 Ukraine corn exports at 16.7 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 16.0 MMT

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated ‘14/15 Ukraine wheat crop at 19.6 MMT

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated ‘14/15 Ukraine wheat exports at 8.6 MMT

 

Colder temps in the Midwest this week. Drier weather by Thursday

 

Frost and freezing temps this morning in  west central Plains may be colder tomorrow morning.

 

July corn 50 day moving average is 501

 

July bean oil 100 day moving average is 4088

 

July bean oil 200 day moving average is 4186

 

25 KC wheat receipts were canceled yesterday out of ADM Hutchinson ELEV I KS.

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week of May 3-9th total crush volume at 1,205,150 tons up 1.11% from a week ago
  • For the week of May 3-9th total crush capacity utilization at 42.28% up .47% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013 – May 9, 2014) crush volume at 41,844,438 tons up 20.04% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 – May 9, 2014) crush volume at 23,296,641 tons up 17.86% from a year ago
  • Total imported soybean stocks as of May 9th were 5.8693 MMT up 146,100 tons from a week ago and up 44.56% from a year ago
  • Estimated May bean imports at 6.463 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.8 MMT
  • Estimated June bean imports at 6.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.3 MMT
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.0 MMT
  • Estimated August bean imports at 5.2 MMT – first estimate made for August.

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Planting 59% vs. 29% a year ago and vs. 58% five year average  (expecting 50-60% complete, some analysts were expecting as much as 70% complete)
    • Iowa planting 70% complete vs. 23% a week ago and vs. 70% average
    • Indiana planting 61% complete vs. 20% a week ago and vs. 45% average
    • Illinois planting 78% complete vs. 43% a week ago and vs. 53% average
    • Michigan planting 20% complete vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 41% average
    • Minnesota planting 31% complete vs. 8% a year ago and vs. 62% average
    • Ohio planting 40% complete vs. 9% a week ago and vs. 46% average
  • Emerged 18% vs. 7% a week ago and vs. 25% five year average

 

Beans

  • Planting  20% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 21% average  (expecting 15-20% complete, some analyst expecting as much as 25% complete)
    • Illinois planting 26% complete vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 36% average
    • Indiana planting 23% complete vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 22% average
    • Iowa planting 20% complete vs. 1% a week ago and vs. 25% average
    • Michigan planting 10% vs. 1% a week ago and vs. 18% average
    • Minnesota bean planting 4% vs. 0% a week ago and vs. 18% average
    • Ohio bean planting 13% vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 22% average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 30% good to excellent vs. 31% a week ago and vs. 32% a year ago    (expecting down 1% from a week ago)
    • Kansas wheat condition good to excellent 13% down 4% from a week ago
    • Texas wheat condition good to excellent 11% down 2% from a week ago
    • Oklahoma wheat condition good  to excellent 6% unchanged from a week ago
  • Condition 42% poor to very poor vs. 38% a week ago
  • Headed 44% vs. 29% a week ago and vs. 46% five year average

 

Spring Wheat

  • Planting 34% vs. 26% a week ago and vs. 53% five year average
  • Emerged 12% vs. 7% a week ago and vs. 27% five year average

 

Rice

  • Planting 75% vs. 57% a week ago and vs. 73% five year average
  • Emerged 53% vs. 39% a week ago and vs. 58% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Planting 30% vs. 16% a week ago and vs. 34% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,338,552 open, down 6,547
  • Total beans 586,444 open, down 767
  • Total meal 306,384 open, down 57
  • Total bean oil 306,462 open, down 476
  • Total wheat 370,426 open, up 4,981
  • Total KC wheat 144,634 open, down 106

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Last trading day for May futures is tomorrow. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Thursday NOPA April crush report comes out at 11 am CST
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE